I have long felt that the UK has little future. Whatever once held the four very disparate countries* within it together will not, I think, endure for much longer.
So, which country will be the first to leave the UK, whatever the Tories and Labour might say about granting them the right to do so?
Which country will leave the UK first?
- Northern Ireland (57%, 203 Votes)
- Scotland (29%, 101 Votes)
- I don't know (6%, 23 Votes)
- None of them (6%, 22 Votes)
- Wales (1%, 5 Votes)
Total Voters: 354
Loading ...* If you are not aware of how disparate they are, you need to travel about a bit more, I suggest. It's a sad fact that most English people have never been to any of Wales, Northern Ireland or Scotland. Excepting Orkney and the Shetlands, I've been to most of all of them.
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Do visit Orkney and Shetland… it’s worth it.
Surprisingly, (to me at least) it is a shorter distance from Land’s End to the English/Scottish border than it is from the border to Lerwick (Shetland). When sailing there they prefer to see a Shetland “courtesy flag” rather than the Saltire and Norwegian boats outnumbered UK (ex-Shetland) ones by a huge margin.
I must go
Neville Chamberlain, when PM, referred to the situation in Czechoslovakia in 1938 as ‘A quarrel in a far away country, between people of whom we know nothing’.
Prague is only 40 miles further away from London than Lerwick is. I think the level of knowledge is often similar, for Scotland as a whole and for Wales and Northern Ireland. One of the consequences of this ‘not knowing’ is the assertion that we are all the same as England. We are very much not. Britishness is often a projection of Englishness. Rishi Sunak recently said ‘British’ is ‘short hand’ for ‘English’.
Much to agree with
“. It’s a sad fact that most English people have never been to any of Wales, Northern Ireland or Scotland.!
This is so true.
“Not London” is a thing…
See this tweet yesterday – and look who it is from!
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1718288795559206924
Scotland seems to me to be further down the Independence route than Wales which also has ‘border’ issues that Scotland doesnt have.
Northern Ireland has a provision that allows it to leave the UK but only to become part of the Republic of Ireland which somewhat complicates matters as I am not aware of a demand for it to become an Independent nation in its own right.
BUT I suggest that either the whole issue could go quiet OR there could be a sudden change in the mood of the constituent nations and once one goes the rest follow.
Wales seems to be the interesting one, as far as I can make out there were stronger voices for independence in the past & Plaid Cymru is currently a minor party. Also the percentage of the Welsh population living close to the border – and crossing it every day to go to work is very high, unlike Scotland and Northern Ireland which brings with it all manner of issues, although (presumably) Europe has dealt with this for a long time.
But we could all be suprised
There was some talk of Northern Ireland becoming a separate country a few years ago. I was at a meeting just before Covid where a member of the Alliance Party brought the idea up. I don’t know whether it was discussed inside the party or whether it was just her idea.
The rationale was that for many republicans it was more important that NI should not be part of the UK than that it should be part of a united Ireland and for many unionists it was more important that NI should not be part of a united Ireland than that it should be part of the UK, and so becoming a separate country could be a compromise that might become accepted by the majority of both communities.
The trouble is the minorities in both communities
I think Northern Ireland becoming Irish would count as leaving the UK.
Scottish independence is very unlikely to ‘go quiet’ in my opinion.
Common language (which wasn’t the case as recently as two centuries ago in the Gaeltacht), same political party ahead in the polls (NI excepted but Labour don’t campaign there),similar values such as a sense of fair play, tolerance and a bit of support for the underdogs in sport and in life.
Demonstrations for Palestine in every home country this weekend.
Stupidity is evenly spread.
We’re not as disparate as you make out in my view.
Where are you based Michael?
Michael Laudrup was a Danish footballer
I thought I was dealing with a troll….
Thank you
Born in Denmark but I’ve had a residence in Great Britain, initially South Wales, for 11+ years.
Good people the Brits.
So what is the releavnce of your question?
Small correction, Labour are not ahead in the polls in Scotland.
Fair point. It’s close but no vape.
Much to disagree with here! There were still people in the Gaeltacht who spoke only Gaelic well into the 20th century. I grew up in a Scottish milltown in the 1950s where the only language to be heard on the streets was Lallans, not Received English, and it’s still to be heard everywhere across Southern and Eastern Scotland, despite a concerted effort to eliminate it from the educational curriculum. The bulk of Scots are bi-lingual since the overwhelming percentage of our mass media is delivered in Received English from mainly London-based, predominantly politically right-of-centre organisations. My experience is that being bi-/multi-lingual makes one more aware of one’s national cultures and it’s those cultures, more than just the language spoken, that makes us all more disparate than Michael imagines. If you really live in Wales, Michael, you must be aware of that, especially when international rugby is involved.
Also, as Sue Hawthorne points out, Labour are not ahead in the polls in Scotland and that won’t change as long as Labour are vehemently opposed to Scottish Independence. Indeed Labour’s ratings in Scotland are more likely to drop than increase – demographics alone will see to that and, when actual independence campaigning gets under way, it becomes more likely.
Apologies for writing this in Received English, or sairie fur scrievin’ this in the Sassenach lied.
Thanks Ken
Further apologies to Lallans speakers oot there: ‘lied’ should be spelled ‘leid’ and is pronounced ‘leed’ just like the German word for song – ‘Lied’. Brain working in one language, fingers in another – ho hum.
I think it’s increasingly obvious to voters that British democracy is in the clutches of greedy capital and this is the real driver behind wanting to leave the union. It can also be argued this was the underlying driver behind Brexit but never clearly articulated. No different of course to the development of Parliamentary democracy in the UK being multi-faceted to get rid of feudalism and to keep capital in charge by getting rid of monarchical dictate.
I think Scotland, as it has the most developed independence movement. However the SNP are very meek and could be more aggressive
However, Wales has a very vibrant grassroots – and deliberately apolitical – independence movement called YesCymru. This is really making some waves with increasing ‘indy curious-ness’ in Wales and pushing forward the case for Welsh independence.
I’d like independence for England – which will happen with a break-up of Britain.
Ideally England, Scotland, Wales and Ireland – all independent states – within the EU would be the future worth working towards.
(Ironically, looking at the polls – indy for Scotland, indy for Wales, a united Ireland, and Britain re-joining the EU, the only polls that show consistent majorities, are for Britain to rejoin the EU currently at around 55% and above (note that ‘leave’s’ highest ever poll in the week’s before the 2016 referendum was 55% – a ‘victory’ based on very thin margins and the slenderest of mandates.)
I’ve been to all these countries and the common thing I find is that people feel that they are ran by an elite who are out of touch and over centralised – even Belfast or Edinburgh are seen in that light by those who live in more rural areas.
I have no idea as to who will be first, nor what obstacles will be placed in their path but I wish them luck.
In response to Schofield, the main driver of the independence movement in Scotland is the simple desire to be able to make our own decisions without interference from and being overruled by Westminster. This is not anti English, just anti the way the union operates. I wonder how many of your readers are aware that pre-1707 Scotland had its own constitution, based on the Claim of Right 1689 (not the English Bill of Rights) which states that sovereignty lies with the people, not the Crown in Parliament as in England. There was a clause in the Treaty of Union which stipulated that the Scottish constitution must be upheld as a condition of union but as soon as the new UK parliament convened the English majority suppressed it, and have done so ever since. I would much rather be a good neighbour to the English than the surly subordinate in the attic.
PS Slightly surprised, Richard, that a birdie enthusiast like yourself has not been to Shetland. Try to go in early June and revel in the seabird spectacular on Noss.
I am also surprised….
The direction of travel for a unified Ireland looks set by demographic change, poor economic performance and Brexit. The unionist population are old the the nationalists young. Before that there may well have to be further and significant devolution to hold the Union together. English regions included. The pressure will ramp up if/as London’s strength as a global financial centre continues to declines.
Many would say that the City of London is, in many respects, another Country!
As a pro-independance Scot, I have forlornly voted for N. Ireland. There is a real appetite for independance in Scotland, especially with people my age and younger, but it isn’t being harnessed nearly effectively enough.
Orkney & Shetland really are worth a visit, but don’t underestimate the length of the journey to get there (or the need for a very good windproof). I took the ferry from Aberdeen and it was a very choppy ride.
Noted!
My son and family went to Shetland last year and took their dog on an overnight ferry. Never again. Dogs and ferries don’t mix. This year they went to the Cairngorms, much easier with a dog.
We have all been to Scotland and Wales regularly, but the problem with Northern Ireland is that my brother was in the army for a long time and spent time in Belfast and Derry. I can’t get that idea out of my head.
Like John C, I voted N Ireland as my view is that the political instability there, exacerbated by the denial of democracy by the DUP’s wrecking policies, and the changing demographics make it likely to be the first to go. Also, like John C I want to see an improvement in the reach and effectiveness of the SNP and Alba in demonstrating the benefits of independence. The distortions of truth and reality we see and hear daily in our media have to be shown for what they are. That won’t stop them from misleading the public but it will shift public opinion away from support for the UK Union
With a significant percentage of the Scot Gov’s budget being spent in mitigating the social and economic harm caused by the Tories’ policies and with Labour vowing to continue the Tories’ neoliberal economic policies, persuading the majority of Scots that Independence would be beneficial shouldn’t be too hard. Support for the devolved parliament in Scotland remains high and the over-ruling by Westminster of legislation passed by the Scottish Government leaves a strong feeling that Holyrood is being neutered prior to being terminated in the future. That too will shift the pendulum towards independence. I recognise that the SNP has some internal cleansing and re-organisation to do, but I just wish the pro-independence parties would show more urgency in their planning and improve their media reach.
Rod says: @10:32am “Many would say that the City of London is, in many respects, another Country!” Well said Rod; how true!
Since 1571, a very singular respect being the ‘City Remembrancer’. The Remembrancer’s department at the City of London parliamentary office is responsible for looking after the City of London’s interests in Parliament with regard to all public legislation. His traditional role is as the channel of communications between the Lord Mayor/City of London and the Sovereign, Royal Household and Parliament. The Remembrancer’s department had a budget of £6 million in 2011, and employed six lawyers to scrutinise prospective legislation and give evidence to select committees.
The Remembrancer is a parliamentary agent and so can observe House of Commons proceedings from the under-gallery at the opposite end of the chamber from the Speaker’s chair. Access to the under-gallery does not give any ability to participate in or influence proceedings. The House of Commons Commission have stated that the Remembrancer does not have any access to the floor of the House of Commons.
In Scotland we use the phrase ‘Aye, right’ as a sarcastic response to someone we suspect someone is fibbing.
Aye, right Commissioner!