There will be much talk of inflation risk today. Candidly, overheated stock markets and house prices apart - both entirely Osborne's fault - I don't see the risk. If anything deflation still remains a bigger risk.
Martin Wolf dealt with this in the FT in April.
So has Paul Krugman.
I don't see inflation as a serious risk yet - unless the government and Bank of England set out to deliver it, deliberately, by massive bubble creation.
That's possible but it will be George who decides on that, not Mark Carney. In the meantime, deflationary factors make it very unlikely at present. For most of us real incomes are falling now.
Thanks for reading this post.
You can share this post on social media of your choice by clicking these icons:
You can subscribe to this blog's daily email here.
And if you would like to support this blog you can, here:
Not sure what to make of Krugman’s conclusion that “there is little risk of accelerating inflation. Indeed, Hobijn and Daly suggest that there’s a “pent-up demand for wage cuts” that will probably push inflation lower even if the economy is recovering.”