Yesterday delivered election results from beyond Manchester.
For the sake of the record, this was the result there:
In Scotland, the SNP held the seat in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry:
They lost that in Aberdeen South, where Stephen Flynn had been the SNP MP:
The first factor that is most obvious in both these other results is the collapse in the Labour vote. The Burnham effect only goes so far, and certainly does not reach Scotland.
The second is the oil effect in Scotland. The Toris will not forget this. Wanting to burn the planet plays well for them.
And then there was a swathe of council by-election results. I cannot show them all, but this was indicative of a trend:
In Essex, the swing back to the Tories from Reform was very marked, having seen how useless Reform had been in office.
The single transferable party is not dead yet.
Reform had a bad night, though. And for other parties, except Plaid Cymru, who hung on to a string of seats under immense Reform pressure, there was little to celebrate. And Labout needs to take note: Burnham is the exception, not the rule.
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By-elections of course are strange things and there are limits to the conclusions that can be drawn from them.
I’m more amazed by the size of the Tory victory in Aberdeen than the Makerfield result. It looks like a victory for the fossil fuel fanatics.
I think the lessons are:
The Tories are not dead.
Reform have been found out.
Without offering real change, Labour are dead.
There was a lot of tactical voting of the “lesser of two evils” variety. Not a good advertisement for democracy.
Voting for what you actually want, and genuine choice is still far away.
I live in this constituency.
The turnout was very poor – when I went to vote, I only saw people decidedly older than myself. This election was also very poorly advertised; to be honest I had almost forgotten about it myself, and there was next to zero presence by SNP or any of the other parties on the day. This in stark contrast to the recent Holyrood elections where Stephen Flynn was very visible up to and on the day of the vote.
More than anything, Aberdeen has been feeling tired recently. The local mood is very dour regards the economy etc, and who can really blame people? The city’s identity is very much tied to its o&g heyday, and the transition has been without doubt handled very poorly. People are looking somewhere for blame, and Kemi was probably the loudest to shout “drill baby drill”. The alternative messaging has been very poor.
Thank you
Thank you, Richard.
This community should note that Burnham has assembled a team of neoliberal advisers, including Jim O’Neill, junior minister under Cameron and May. O’Neill was chief economist at Goldman Sachs before politics. This is to reassure the markets.
It feels like the Obama years, running on hope and change, or as Starmer tweeted this morning, hope and optimism, vibes, but not substance, and paving the way for Trump, or, in this case, Burnham paving the way for Farage, probably in a right wing alliance. Burnham’s owners won’t mind, as they own Farage, too. Just like Wall Street owned Obama. Dunno about Burnham’s supporters, though, but most are deluded and may not notice. Just like Obama’s supporters, even now.
From 2003 – 19, I often worked in the US.
Much to agree with
The other Essex result in Rayleigh was in line with that Rochford one. Interesting. Also: Good.
We are going to need traditional Conservative wins to keep out the foreign funded far right that too much of the unrepresentative media is longing to see in office. Badenoch as leader is a dampener on that, she is truly terrible, but Aberdeen South – albeit a single issue constituency if ever there was one – probably keeps her in place.
I wonder how much tactical voting took place. How many switched their vote from the Greens or LibDems to Labour and how many switched from the Tories to the far, far, far, far right parties?
Maybe, just maybe, that is one conclusion that could be drawn from the Makerfield by-election – that progressive parties must work together for the benefit of all in the country. Burnham may not be a perfect candidate but he could be a step in the right direction.
Craig
Burnham is not progressive.
He is neoliberal to his core.
And as is clear today – he does not know what to do, or have the courage to do it.