We supposedly have peace in the Middle East, but for how long will it last?
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I give it 10, Richard.
10 what? Days, weeks?
Neither. I give it 10…9…8…7…
Sorry.
🙂
It wouldn’t surprise me if Trump wakes up this morning, forgets he agreed to a peace deal, and orders fresh attacks on Iran.
I didn’t vote, as “peace in the Middle East” apparently includes bombing of the southern suburbs of Beirut, the Israeli demand for evacuation and invasion of the Christian quarter of Tyre, and ongoing genocide in Gaza, along with more genocide including the carefully calculated murder of babies in the West Bank as part of Israel’s rapidly accelerating formal annexation of the Occupied Territories, and unresolved international borders for Israel, Palestine, Syria, Turkey, and Iraq, alongside apartheid in Israel and the Occupied Territories . It also includes an unlawful ban on the ICRC visiting Palestinian detainees in Israeli underground dungeons. One day last week there were 2 headlines next to each other – the latest “peace” deal, and Trump’s announcement that he would be taking over Kharg Island refinery that night.
I see the internationally traded oil price going up and down regularly, so someone is making money out of it all. Maybe we will get a new “Board of Peace” and Tony Blair can be Shah of the Iran-Iraq-Levantine Caliphate and bring about peace in our time?
Whatever we have for the next 5 minutes, it is not שלום
Sorry to be very cynical, and I know you are as sceptical about “peace” as the rest of us.
I agree. There never will be peace in the Middle East/West until there is justice for the Palestinian people, both in Gaza and the West Bank.
Agreed
IF they really find peace under the conditions stated in the agreement it’s a complete victory for Iran.
(Apparently Bloomberg states this, I only have a german translation of it and I hope it’s quite accurate to the original)
Immediate stop of military activities, also in Lebanon.
No more involvement in the internal affairs of the other (one of the most prominent reasons at the beginning of the war)
Lifted and no new sanctions.
US and allies retreat from the golf region.
Release of iranian frozen assets.
They get money for reconstruction.
And in return they basically only need to:
Open the straits again
State they will not develop nuclear weapons.
I don’t know about the nuclear weapons but open straits is just was had been the case before the war anyway.
However in these following 60 days (plus additional 30 days for e.g. the retreat of the US) until the signing of the final treaty under the UN:
Trump willing to accept a 2nd Vietnam-type defeat?
Netanyahu giving up his dreams of a Greater Israel?
Both not very well known for keeping their promises to Iran?
I’m willing to side with Nigel Okey about this…
A quick vote amongst this with whom I am sharing company this morning says if these are the terms this deal will not outlast Trump’ birthday.
“US and allies retreat from the golf region.” I’m very aware that here is nothing funny about any of this, but I appreciate the idea of the US and Trump in, particular being banned from the golf region”. 🙂
🙂
American presidents, like Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, are less dangerous playing golf than playing with the Gulf.
How long is a piece of string? Well, we saw how long Israel’s string is when Netanyahu tried to provoke Iran into a military response by bombing Beirut – a red line for Iran. However, since Iran regards the US and Israel as indivisible, they resisted an immediate response and went ahead with the MoU signing. Iran has said it reserves the right to respond to Israel’s actions in a time, place and way of its own choosing.
What is infuriating in this whole scenario is that Iran has been left alone to fight two rogue states on its own. Especially when Iran has been under extreme pressure for five decades due to sanctions, regime change machinations and now military attacks. It’s as though the ‘rest of the world’ is happy to sit back and watch even though every country in the world is affected by the closure of the Hormuz Strait. Europe’s response has been particularly egregious – supporting Israel’s genocide of Palestinians and Lebanese and trying to get some crumbs from the US-Iran negotiating table. Horrible.
We – the rest of the world – hope for peace, an end to the killing. But, until the rogue states of the US and Israel are dealt a decisive blow that ends their impunity, its hard to believe that violence in the Middle East will stop.
Agreed
I am not a fan of the Iranian regime. But the USA and Israel are also rogue regimes.
Anne
I see a shift in support for Palestine and against Israel among those of the public who take any interest. The governments of Europe have not responded -with a few exceptions, Ireland, Norway and Spain.
My question is what holds them back? Fear of Trump’s response? An internal lobby in their own countries? The ownership of the media. ( With the new owners of the Telegraph insisting their journalists take a pro-Isreal stance) Even Mossad files on leading politicians? Some of our MPs are starting do so but the majority remain silent. They should remember history will record the names of those who were silent in the face of genocide.
“…what holds them back?” In a word: Zionism.
Global Zionism has captured the state institutions, media and governments of most western countries. Our own PM states proudly that he is a Zionist.
All the reasons which Richard outlined in his post on 11th June ‘Why neoliberals fear MMT’ apply the same, if not more, to anyone in a position of power or influence in the UK and elsewhere: fear of the overriding power of the Zionist ‘lobby’. It can end careers and ruin lives with impunity.
My only hope is that the majority of ordinary people all over the world are beginning to recognise this and will one way or another refuse to accept it. In this respect, Iran is leading the way. Courageous states – Spain, Ireland, Norway – are taking a stand. Let’s hope more realism prevails in the future.
Ann Thank you for giving a response.
A lot to agree with as someone is wont to say
There are those who are intimidated by the lobby and those who really believe it. My feeling is the first group is the larger group. When they see they risk being left behind, we might have change.
Likely that Israel will continue their land grab in Lebanon. America will wash their hands and refuse to take the bait this time and Iran and Israel will continue the war. Without America’s backing Israel will be playing a far more existential game.
No, I was not an admirer of the Iranian govt in Jan. 26 and before. Now, Iran has been aggressed upon without warning, been bombed, has certainly lost some/most of its weaponry. Their response has been effective, and there is every sign that they have won in the war against the US. (Israel is another matter). I can admire such an effective and intelligent govt.
My view is that Trump can do what the hell he likes – it won’t make a blind bit of difference now. The Middle East is living history that rolls over the present like a tsunami, a history of violence, racism, murder, greed and insouciance.
If Trump knew the history, we would never had done what he has done. He has a made a huge error, taking bad advice, and his stupidity has been used by the Zionists who have used the latent Antisemitism in Western society to make their world and fulfil their policy of an ongoing age of naqam, revenge or נָקַם.
The real conflict now should be with Israeli Zionism. They need to be, should be stopped. But I fear that it is too late. The Zionist desire for land is an abject lesson in what happens when the concept of God is used to drive man made capitalism . It is always a recipe for disaster. As for the Jews, they belong rightly to the world – not just Israel. That is the concept we need to rediscover – and not just with Jews either.
‘God help us’ says this atheist………………..
Netanyahu has a real problem. Having duped a particularly stupid grifter to give him the arms to prosecute his lifelong ambition to take over as much of the Middle East as possible and with the job far from done he cannot afford to give up. He will never persuade another US president to help him in future.
I have just looked at the vote.
It seems you are all as cynical as me.
Or maybe as pessimistic.
Well, I wouldn’t be if the UN (and before it the League of Nations) would be what it should be.
If the League of Nations and all of the other 14 points of Wilson would have been applied in 1919….. we would have WAY less problems now and could surely solve the rest easier.
But they’re already doing nothing at all in Lebanon where they already have about 11000 troops stationed to ensure peace.
STILL, despite all that pessimism, I believe in a world where a politics of care and courage can resolve this, when we can find ways to unite.
I already quoted Chaplin with his speech from “The Great Dictator” in another comment but there’s again a good quote that fits here as well as this speech always helps me to get at least a bit of hope:
“[…]
Then – in the name of democracy – let us use that power – let us all unite!
Let us fight for a new world.
A decent world, that will give men a chance to work, that will give youth a future and old age a security.
By the promise of these things, brutes have risen to power.
But they lie!
They do not fulfil that promise.
They never will!
Dictators free themselves but they enslave the people!
Now let us fight to fulfil that promise!
[…]
“
I have just looked at the vote.
It seems you are all as cynical as me.
Or maybe as pessimistic.
We don’t actually have peace in the Middle East. All we actually have is a very shaky agreement of sorts between the US and Iran to stop depleting their arsenals. The genocide in Gaza and the West Bank and the capture of Lebanon continue unabated and Netanyahu’s Zionist regime has made it crystal clear that there will be no cessation of those. We should not be talking of it as peace – it is just a fragile truce between two of the three principal combatants. The third will do its utmost to destroy that truce.
The Middle East has not been truly at peace for a very long time, probably largely caused by interference by Western powers, particularly ourselves.
Shh! We’re not supposed to let on about that! It undermines the myth of benign western capitalist imperialism.