I keep hearing people say things like this right now:

I hate Labour, but I'd vote Burnham to keep Reform out.

I admit that if I were voting in the by-election in a fortnight's time, I might think that, and in the current UK political environment, I think this sentiment captures something important about the state of our politics.

We know that many people who have traditionally voted Labour are deeply disappointed with the party. They dislike its caution, its inability to challenge austerity, its failure to deliver a Green New Deal, its unwillingness to talk honestly about the economy, and its apparent lack of vision. Some have already deserted to the Greens. Others have stopped voting altogether. And yet Andy Burnham appears to be providing an exception to the revulsion with Labour, and I use that word revulsion wisely.

Why is that happening? It has been put to me in conversations that this is because many voters think he still sounds like a Labour politician in the traditional sense. They may not agree with everything he says, but they think he understands public services, local communities, social security, and the government's role in improving people's lives, and they say he has proved that in Manchester. As a result, some people seem to have suspended their general disbelief in Labour when it comes to Burnham.

That creates an interesting political possibility. Is this just about this by-election, where the need to beat Reform is so overwhelming, or is it indicative of something bigger? If, in other words, Burnham were ever to become Labour leader, or even the dominant voice within the party, might he attract back voters who have drifted away in despair? More importantly, might he simultaneously undermine Reform UK's appeal?

The fact is that, as we know, a significant part of Reform's support appears to come from people who are not committed to its ideology, but from those who want to register a protest against the political establishment. What would happen if those potential Reform voters were offered a candidate they might regard as authentic, practical, and prepared to challenge Westminster orthodoxy? Might some then decide they no longer need Reform as a vehicle for their anger, as it seems some previously did in Gorton and Denton?

The fact is that, under the first-past-the-post system, tactical voting is already important, and may become more so, and this question is, as a result, very relevant.

Might Burnham be good for Labour by reclaiming Reform voters?

And might it also be possible that voters who currently dislike Labour might nonetheless vote for a Burnham-led Labour Party because they see it as the most effective way to stop Reform gaining power?

What I know, from my conversations, is that any such vote for Labour of that second sort would not be based on enthusiasm. It would, instead, be based on a judgement not about which option offered the best chance of producing a desirable outcome, but what might best prevent an outcome feared more than Labour's dismal indifference. That is a terrible basis for voting, but many see it as necessary in the face of the neo-fascism of Nigel Farage's Reform Party, let alone Rupert Lowe's Restore Party.

Whether that sentiment grows remains to be seen, but the fact that this situation has developed is itself revealing. When people say, “I hate Labour, but I'll vote Burnham”, they are really saying something else. They are saying that leadership, authenticity, and narrative still matter, and they will vote for anyone who offers the best chance of it wherever they are.

In Scotland, the SNP is where people are going in that quest. In Wales, it is Plaid Cymru. In England, it might be the Greens, LibDems, and even Labour, depending on the constituency.

And perhaps that fact matters rather more than the party labels. People are taking the fight against extremism, racist politics, and hate into their own hands since Labour, in particular, is not delivering proportional representation right now.

Labour should take note then. Whatever support they or Burnham get is decidedly conditional. There is no love being shown. There is simply a reluctant acceptance that sometimes, but not always, Labour provides the best means of defence against fascism, but no one pretends they would not prefer better options, and they wish Labour would deliver them.

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