There is a reason why I had to spend some time thinking about a potential European response to a threat from the USA over Greenland in the latter part of last week, which is reflected in a blog post published this morning. That was because, over a couple of days, I was in discussion with the BBC about whether I would participate in a Sunday morning television broadcast on the politics of this issue, before being told that I had been dropped from the discussion, I think because the nature of the discussion itself changed late on Friday afternoon.
It would seem that someone in the BBC had noticed my argument that defence spending makes no sense unless a decision has been made as to what a country is defending, which is a theme to which I return this morning, and which I stressed was, in my opinion, a precondition for the political support within the communities of Europe for a common defence strategy if that is what is going to be required now.
I cannot be sure whether my more conceptual position was why I was dropped, when the initial approach was to discuss whether additional defence expenditure was affordable, with the seemingly inevitable contrast with spending on care being made as the alternative that had to be cut, or whether I had just failed to focus sufficiently on that one sole point.
Either way, I make the point that somebody at least noticed, and that forced me to think about an issue in a way that I might otherwise not have done quite so clearly, with this morning's blog post now being the sole outcome, although I am not entirely regretting that. I now realise that we have many more options available than I might otherwise have thought, especially when it comes to territorial rights, where, let's be clear, we do hold some of the power, not just in the UK, but in many other parts of Europe as well.
However, as I note in that post, the real question is: will Europe have the courage to act? That is something to which I have no answer at present.
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It is just as important to analyse the nature of the threat.
And think about HOW we defend.
War, wrote Clausewitz, is the continuation of policy by other means. During the pandemic I re-visited the Cold War history including interventions in Asia.. So often I read what Americans said about the reasons for intervention and noted they gave little attention to what came next. Iraq is a classic case. Rumsfeld tore up the Pentagon plan for the occupation which inevitably resulted in chaos. Maybe Afghanistan too. They focused on the military.
Not all the ‘how’ is military. One example is Putin’s December 2021 treaty proposals which would have neutralised Eastern Europe leaving him with the ability to dominate as he does in Belarus. It was accompanied by hybrid warfare including bots on social media trying to undermine aid for Ukraine, to get the US out of Europe, and, more recently, promote division with anti-immigrant ‘patriotic’ websites. It could have gained him a foreign policy victory without firing a shot. He probably has understood Clausewitz. Dictatorships need those sort of ‘victories’ to maintain power -esp. as living standards often don’t increase. I think that could apply to Trump as well. Their enemy is not just abroad.
Europe is by comparison a democratic area with welfare states. It is a rival model and as such we pose a threat. We don’t make ourselves safer by diluting it at their behest.
Much to agree with.