There is a reason why I had to spend some time thinking about a potential European response to a threat from the USA over Greenland in the latter part of last week, which is reflected in a blog post published this morning. That was because, over a couple of days, I was in discussion with the BBC about whether I would participate in a Sunday morning television broadcast on the politics of this issue, before being told that I had been dropped from the discussion, I think because the nature of the discussion itself changed late on Friday afternoon.
It would seem that someone in the BBC had noticed my argument that defence spending makes no sense unless a decision has been made as to what a country is defending, which is a theme to which I return this morning, and which I stressed was, in my opinion, a precondition for the political support within the communities of Europe for a common defence strategy if that is what is going to be required now.
I cannot be sure whether my more conceptual position was why I was dropped, when the initial approach was to discuss whether additional defence expenditure was affordable, with the seemingly inevitable contrast with spending on care being made as the alternative that had to be cut, or whether I had just failed to focus sufficiently on that one sole point.
Either way, I make the point that somebody at least noticed, and that forced me to think about an issue in a way that I might otherwise not have done quite so clearly, with this morning's blog post now being the sole outcome, although I am not entirely regretting that. I now realise that we have many more options available than I might otherwise have thought, especially when it comes to territorial rights, where, let's be clear, we do hold some of the power, not just in the UK, but in many other parts of Europe as well.
However, as I note in that post, the real question is: will Europe have the courage to act? That is something to which I have no answer at present.
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I think that we are all beginning to understand how your work ethic might run into problems with the pace of change in world affairs. Be that as it may, you are still thinking about things not considered by the MSM, so no harm done?
For me, when the world becomes unstable, you need to choose your allies carefully. I then look at the out of touch way in which we are currently ruled and I fear that it is my children who will face the consequences. My distrust is boosted by how expansionist capitalist and market objectives have been adopted by the corrupted state. This goes right to the heart of if we have to fight a war, who and what is it for?
Trumps aggression is bound to cause offence to both Russia but especially China whom they are baiting and waiting to destroy using their vast military capacity in the South China sea that they built up after WW II. If Greenland falls to the U.S., then that might be a flash point. However, I would not put it past China and Russia to come up with a ruse to get around that.
At the end of the day, all Trump is doing is fast tracking and thus reifying what has always been U.S. policy abroad – America First.
The U.S. is not a shining city on the hill – it never has been (although there is still a lot to admire), and democracy has ceased to function there since the 2010 ruling on political donations, if not before. Added to this is U.S. interference in domestic politics of other continents since the end of WW II which is well documented (once the UK was out of the way at least). America will not change in my view however, until we start to disengage with it. We need to cold shoulder it and if necessary start to have the UN and NATO etc meet away from America. The World Bank too if necessary – a message needs to be sent out.
I still think that we are defending peace in Europe at least – the politics of care needs to embrace peace.
At the moment Plan A is all about Trumps’ reign blowing over and back to normal but what is Plan B given the resources at his disposal?
Thanks
It is just as important to analyse the nature of the threat.
And think about HOW we defend.
War, wrote Clausewitz, is the continuation of policy by other means. During the pandemic I re-visited the Cold War history including interventions in Asia.. So often I read what Americans said about the reasons for intervention and noted they gave little attention to what came next. Iraq is a classic case. Rumsfeld tore up the Pentagon plan for the occupation which inevitably resulted in chaos. Maybe Afghanistan too. They focused on the military.
Not all the ‘how’ is military. One example is Putin’s December 2021 treaty proposals which would have neutralised Eastern Europe leaving him with the ability to dominate as he does in Belarus. It was accompanied by hybrid warfare including bots on social media trying to undermine aid for Ukraine, to get the US out of Europe, and, more recently, promote division with anti-immigrant ‘patriotic’ websites. It could have gained him a foreign policy victory without firing a shot. He probably has understood Clausewitz. Dictatorships need those sort of ‘victories’ to maintain power -esp. as living standards often don’t increase. I think that could apply to Trump as well. Their enemy is not just abroad.
Europe is by comparison a democratic area with welfare states. It is a rival model and as such we pose a threat. We don’t make ourselves safer by diluting it at their behest.
Much to agree with.