By-elections are fickle things. No one should over emphasise the impact of any one of them. No government party has gained a seat in a by-election since 1982 in the UK. So the fact that Labour retained Oldham East and Saddleworth should not, of itself, be a surprise. That said, the margin of victory was good, the circumstances suggested Labour should have a difficult time, and the psychological impact will be significant. So it is true, one swallow does not a summer make, but I'm still quietly pleased.
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The Lib Dems should have romped home with a massive margin. They only narrowly lost at the previous election, the reason for sacking Woollas would have significantly hurt Labour (as the expenses scandal hurt Labour), and the Tories tactically voted for the Lib Dems en masse. The result reflects the current unpopularity of the Lib Dems in the polls, despite the media doing everything to deny this.