Many people will have seen this opinion poll, news of which broke yesterday.
There are several key points to consider here.
Firstly, I am old enough to remember other new parties receiving unprecedented levels of support like this, which makes me sceptical about the reliability of such indicators. Way back in the early 1980s, the Social Democratic Party received massive initial indications of support, and it won by-elections, and then faded into the Liberal Democrats. Others have followed a similar pattern since. I would not read too much into this indicated level of support for Jeremy Corbyn, as yet.
Second, the sample size used in this study is small. Interviewing 650 voters is smaller than is typical in an opinion poll, which may bias the results.
Thirdly, there is no good news here for any of the mainstream parties, including the smaller ones.
Fourthly, the level of support for Reform when they are clearly unable to organise themselves, and have already lost two of the five MPs who were elected for the party last July, is quite extraordinary, but it would appear that the UK electorate (or at least a part of it) have suspended their disbelief with regard to this party, presuming that Nigel Farage walks on water.
Fifthly, and most importantly, if Labour does not take this poll as the clearest possible indication that it must now take proportional representation seriously, then it will be failing everyone in this country.
If this poll result were to be replicated in the general election, it is likely that Reform would win 500 or more seats on the basis of the support of around a third of the population who bothered to turn out to vote. There is no way in which it might be suggested that this could even approximate to democratic representation of the people of this country, but it would turn us into a neo-fascist state, with potentially irreversible consequences, and massive ill effects for millions of people across the UK, unless action is taken to prevent this.
I am not denying people the right to vote for Reform. Let me be clear, if they are foolish enough to do so, that is their right. However, I believe that all our political parties should now align to prevent the possibility of fascism, and at the same time, ensure that there is fair and proper representation of the opinions of most people in the UK in the Parliament that is meant to represent them. That can only happen on the basis of a multimember constituency, single transferable vote, proportional representation system being used in this country.
This would mean, on the basis of this opinion poll, that Reform might take one third, or even more, of the seats in Parliament, but it would also mean that they might have considerable difficulty in forming a government unless the Tories were so stupid as to enter into office with them.
Again, I cannot preclude that, but the point I am making is that it is essential that steps now be taken to make sure that we do not march into neo-fascism because of the complete stubbornness of Labour and its belief that it has an absolute right to govern, every now and again, based on freakish first-past-the post electoral results, as happened in July 2024.
Will Labour now step up to the mark and deliver electoral form? I don't know, is the honest answer. But what I do know is that if they do not, they will, most definitely, be neo-fascist enablers.
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I think this has been the plan all along, especially now that the BBC and mainstream media has platformed Farage countless time.
With Blue Labour controlling the party it already looks like a determined effort to make Reform Ltd the government by 2029.
I really have no idea why the cabinet can’t see this, nor why the kind of gaslighting which, honestly does have strong fascist symbolism to my mind is being pursued.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/jul/15/rachel-reeves-rules-red-tape-boot-on-neck-innovation-mansion-house
I’m no supporter or fan of the present incarnation of the Labour party who are in government now, but if people are so convinced that it’s their plan to facilitate a Reform government, why wouldn’t he just call an election now?
Too soon…
He can command a majority in the Commons
“why wouldn’t he (Starmer) just call an election now?”
LINO apparatchiks (= the cabinet + McSwine) need time to engineer financial parachutes.
Reeves “speech” was intended to show that she fits beautifully into international finance. Streeting/NHS privatisation-r-us is another example etc.
The point is the LINO “government” is there for itself and securing its financial future, post 2029. The rhetoric from Starmer etc is mostly there to pacify UK serfs.
LINO is functionally incapable of making the Uk better, but is making it much much worse – all in the interests of self interest.
“Why not just call the electio now?”
1- Starmer has not lost the confidence of the House of Commons. If he has, another Labour MP could still command a majority so could take over without a GE.
2 – if the goal was to get Reform elected, they would need hundreds of candidates ready to stand, vetted, and with their deposits, sponsorship paperwork and residence all in order. Fa***e can’t manage that in 6 weeks. Organisationally Reform UK Ltd is a chaotic mess.
In 2029 he could have his candidates ready and will be hoping Reform’s local government failutes don’t dent his popularity in the meantime.
Who knows what Starmer has in mind? – certainly not Starmer.
Much to agree with
The writing is clearly on the wall. Will the government notice and if they do, will they take action to improve the voting system? When one considers their record in office so far they don’t appear to be blessed with the ability to make the right call on more or less anything. I’d love to be wrong on this, but I think it likely that they will continue to delude themselves that FPTP is good for the Labour Party and for the country.
I suspect Starmer will simply tack further to the right.
Prepare for more deportation publicity.
Labour will start to use the word “woke” (with reference to disability rights) and Liz Kendall will crack down on “benefit cheats, scroungers and malingerers”, while Yvette Cooper will be upping the anti on external threats to the UK, terrorism (cardboard and sharpie-fuelled).
Labour will announce a new “war on waste”, sacking even more public servants and losing their expertise.
If August brings riots, then nightingale courts and harsh sentences will accompny references to “hard-working law-abiding British citizens”.
All these measures and all this rhetoric will simply draw attention to Fa***e’s agenda and do his campaigning for him.
Your poll shows that 66% of the sample do not support Reform. Do enough of them care enough to stop them? And do they/we know how to do that?
Why should right-wing Starmer support electoral reform when the country will get another right-wing party ironically called Reform if he fails! Starmer and his ministers will get taken care of by the rich and the Parliamentary system. Right-wingers know they’ve got the country sewn up because of the dreadful level of ignorance about how things really work amongst many voters.
It is really quite telling that this poll (whatever its statistical shortcomings) shows most progress has been made by a far right party that has lost 2 of its 5 MPs since the general election just 1 year ago and a party that does not yet exist!
This poll (whatever its shortcomings) ought to make Starmer urgently plan electoral reform, for the reasons you state. But as he’s a stubborn paranoid authoritarian, that’s extremely unlikely.
There is a better chance, although shaky, that Labour MPs will be driven to see the urgent need to dump Starmer, McSweeney, and his other useless hangers-on (Reeves, Kendall, Nandy, Streeting, Philipson, etc) before it’s too late.
https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/25316422.live-durham-council-vote-keeping-climate-emergency-pledge/
This is what happens when your council is taken over by Reform.
Reform lost 10,000 members last month, and is struggling to keep it’s candidates in the councils they won. Something doesn’t add up. I think Reform are funded merely to push the Overton window rather than anything else. If they did win an election they would collapse within a year.
Tom
What’s your data source as that reversal is significant – and must represent resignations and a loss of income?
Richard
There is a membership tracker on the Reform website. Their peak was 237k, but it dropped significantly in June. LBC reported they lost 3000 members in just three days. Fallout from their failures with local councils could be a cause.
Good to see…
I’d take any revelation about Reform membership with a pillar of salt, as I would with Labour (who until 12 months ago were counting my wife and our pals as members, despite resigning in 2021). Reform Watch online are noting Reform resignations – or in some cases, never turning ups. There is a steady trickle.
The sudden drop in membership coincides with the fact that a number of people joined Reform UK when Nigel Farage took over the party leadership one year prior. Automatic membership reminders weren’t sent, so many memberships lapsed. However, some individuals may rejoin once they’ve realised this.
Yeh, yeh.
Like the author of this substack, I have always been surprised at the lack of interest in Morgan McSweeney’s background growing up in a ‘stalwart Fine Gael family’.
‘It’s strange that his background hasn’t excited more interest, he’s a foreigner at the top of British politics and he arrived in the UK as a young adult, not as a child. His formative political experiences were not in the country he now has an important role in governing.’
‘Fine Gael’s identity has always been with law and order, and if order can’t be maintained by legal means others will have to be found.’
https://macdonnchada.substack.com/p/morgan-mcsweeney-and-me
According to Wikipedia ‘As a political party of the centre-right, Fine Gael has been described as liberal-conservative, Christian-democratic, liberal, conservative liberal, conservative, and pro-European, with an ideological base combining elements of cultural conservatism and economic liberalism.’
That sounds pretty much like Blue Labour to me…. and it doesn’t sound like the LP that I grew up in.
Much to agree with
Thank you and well said, Sue.
The blogger omits to say that McSweeney spent time at a kibbutz, as did his wife, and both fell for zionism as an ideology. The pair were not at the same kibbutz.
It’s not clear if that time at the kibbutz was before or after McSweeney became a protege of and hatchet man for Mandelson.
The Tories clothed themselves in Reform style policies when Johnson was the PM and we got BREXIT – the rich Europhobe’s wet dream. This wet dream was the biggest act of self harm in Britain’s recent history.
Now we seem to be on the brink of securing a domestic government modelled on the same narrow vision. More self harm. I have kids abroad at the moment and they both seem to be in more grown up countries where adults are in charge.
Are people in his country that stupid? Maybe. Are they desperate and confused? Oh definitely. Just go on line and see.
But you see, Thatcher taught them – as has Blair – that wealth is good, wealth is benign, wealth is wise. It must be! Because of their…well…wealth! You have to be clever don’t you to be wealthy? And if you are clever, running a country must be like falling off a log. And so what if Reform are just another bunch of millionaires and billionaires doing politics in their spare time for a laugh.
But they are wrong. Being wealthy is about the orientation to one’s self; only your duty to one’s self and one’s happiness is what matters as Ayn Rand pointed out many moons ago.
Hope Tom’s right. This just happened in County Durham today.
https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/25317345.reform-uk-scrap-climate-emergency-pledge-county-durham/
They will alienate people by their actions.
Farage must hate the fact that they won councils.
I am dismayed now I have seen this poll.
That being said, how accurate is it, or any poll? Are these polls just created to sway the casual observer? Are they just phantom statistics created to corral public opinion?
The present parlous state of our country is down 4 decades of Right Wing government. Each bunch further Right than the last. The Left has not seen power during that period. It is not in any way responsible for the unbelievably awful state we are in. Why vote for a party (limited company) which is even more Right Wing. Millions voted for the 2017 Corbyn Manifesto. It was modest social democracy. Such as we experienced after 1945. It gave the working class the best living standards ever. I experienced those days as a small child, a schoolboy, a teenager and a young worker. Eldest of five children . Every one of us bought a home of our own by the time we reached 30. Mostly granted on one salary. Full employment was seen as normal. My parents had survived the nightmare of the 30s. Another period of Tory misrule. They educated me and my siblings about living standards being so much improved . Told how fortunate to be alive in those times. Surely, voters given the opportunity to elect a government promising hope. There are lots of people still around who supported the Corbyn plans. Younger folk especially need change . Their lives are very tough compared with my generation. As the progressive party settles in big political beasts will join. Elections for leadership will take place. Corbyn and his supporters have gone through political assassination . Accused of antisemitism. Cleared twice. IT will be difficult to pin such accusations on them again. Personally, I don’t believe Corbyn wishes to be leader. The formation of an organisation that will transform the lives of working people is enough. As soon as possible I shall join the party . Several of my family are waiting ,too .I hope it will be successful. Fascism is too terrible to contemplate
The question seems to be…
Is PR a feasible possibility for the next general election?
My answer is that that is very doubtful, much as I would like it to be.
First of all, PR for general elections would require an affirmative referendum if it were to be regarded as a legitimate basis for conducting elections. If such a referendum were held within the next year and produced an affirmative vote, then the next election could be under PR.
Unfortunately there is a complication. That is that the issue of independence or otherwise of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland needs to be settled first, so that a simple majority result to the PR referendum would be unchallengeably legitimate. If each independence referendum produced a Yes to independence majority, then the electorates in those countries would be excluded in the subsequent PR referendum.
With political will, of course all the independence referendums could take place, say in the next year, and the PR referendum could take place within a year thereafter, leaving nearly two years to organise a PR election, ideally with multi-member constituencies, before the next general election. That would indeed be doable. (And the multi-member constituency PR option could be included in the PR referendum.)
The alternative is to hold a PR referendum now or ASAP without prior independence referendums but requiring a super majority for PR, say a 55 percent majority of voters. But that would be a much higher threshold to achieve.
Of course the political will for any of these two possible scenarios is totally lacking. The Labour party would not say boo to a goose. It is totally incapable of challenging any vested interest even where it is in its best interest to do as, as with taxes on wealth.
Labour has totally failed its own constituency. The electorate should support parties which have a genuine commitment to PR and will espouse one of the two scenarios mentioned, especially those, if any, who will clearly advocate multi-member constituencies. That would preclude Reform UK who would continue with FPTP if they held elections at all, were they to form a majority UK government.
I disagree Ian
If we can change the way councils, mayors, police commissioners and MSPs are elected by Acts of Parliament, and change constituencies that way, we can change electoral systyems that way too. There is no issue with doing so.
Labour has today announced that 16 to 18 year old will be eligible to vote in the next GE. If they ca change that by an Act of Parliament they can change to PR by an Act of Parliament.
I entirely agree
Of course, there is no vested interest to be challenged where PR versus FPTP is concerned. It is simply a matter of political vision and the boldness to act on it or in Labour’s case the lack of both.
I think that the only other option is the upcoming new Corbyn – Sultana “left” party, rumoured to be courting Mick Lynch. With the right combination of names, and a non-divisive leader, it could make headway.
This has come up on my radar recently: https://majorityuk.org/
Sounds wonderful, but as with previous grassroots ambitions, I fear the right wing press will see it strangled before it draws breath.
Majority is going quite well at the moment. They are also linked with Corbyn and the Green Party.
I mentioned them on a different thread.
Jamie Driscoll is a very good organiser and is having meetings all over the north east already. It’s a continuation of his standing for mayor of the north east.
They meet in libraries and meeting rooms and discuss chapters of the book Act Now, from the Common Sense Policy Group, with chapters by Kate Pickett, Danny Dorling, Cat Hobbs, Allyson Pollock and Neal Lawson, among others. There is a meeting in Gosforth today.
Starmer has already tried to strangle the group but it’s getting quite grown up now.
Jamie says that the Corbyn group is a good idea, but we may as well join Majority while waiting.
Thanks
“Way back in the early 1980s, the Social Democratic Party received massive initial indications of support, and it won by-elections, and then faded”
Indeed they did, but they principally got whacked by Thatcher’s saviour, General Galtieri.
Absent the Falklands war and a khaki election in 1983 and we might have had a better country – imagine neoliberalism getting the boot so early on . . .
Certainly Thatcher, by early 1982, was odds-on to be a one-term governor.
If we presume left wing voters chose either Labour, Corbyn or the Greens that adds up to 35%, which is more than Reform got, so there is still a strong desire for genuinely socialist policies.
Richard sorry to be O/T before reading your article and the clip in the National you really struck a nerve there.before this I have contacted Ofcom Scotland on the same lines you spoke about and it was well past the time they had an investigation to all aspects of reporting on BBC Scotland I don’t expect anything will be done nor do I expect a reply.
All I will say well done you a pity more people would not do the same.
Thank you
A new left party would attract probably 100,000 members very quickly, which if paying the same as Labour charges would bring in more that £7 million in the first year, and also these members are likely to have a high proportion of activists. An electoral pact with the Greens though is needed in my view.
But why is Corbyn so slow about launching it?
https://theleftlane2024.substack.com/p/just-launch-the-thing
Alan Story/ THE LEFT LANE
I fear the same arrogance and failure to understand the depth of people’s disillusionment and despair with the status quo could easily be a repeat of the shock of Brexit. The next election could be the ultimate ‘fuck the lot of you’ expression by voters and the consequences would be even more devastating than Brexit. Can Labour not see this? Are they really that arrogant? I think they are
I do, too.
I understand why pollsters call it the Jeremy Corbyn party.
But a question arises from a recent issue of THE LEFT LANE: why should Corbynistas totally dominant what is supposed to be a left/socialist party? NOT a good sign.
https://theleftlane2024.substack.com/p/whats-the-main-danger-facing-a-new
Alan Story
[…] you want to know why, in a recent opinion poll, only 15% of people said they might vote for Labour, this is […]
I think calling Corbyn’s supporters Corbynistas is not really acceptable these days. It shows that you do not think much of him.
For your information, Alan, Majority has had hundreds of new supporters over the last few weeks. They were at the Durham Miners Gala at the weekend.
They are already talking about plans for next year’s Newcastle elections.
Jamie Driscoll had 250,000 votes for the mayor of the north east, when Kim McGuinness had 260,000. That was without the support of labour members, and not being able to look at labour’s lists of membership, etc.
They are organised this time.
Sorry, 25,000 and 26000.
Few polls have right-leaning parties getting more than 50% of the vote, hence a view that in every election in memory a proportional representation system would have delivered a majority of left-leaning MPs. This poll would suggest current voting intentions would lean ever so slightly right.
Aside from potential inaccuracy and issues with small poll size, etc, even if a vote in a general election did match this, then Reform could only get policies through with the support of the Tories, and the slightest disagreement would lead to a vote failing, rather than FPTP potentially giving an overwhelming majority on such a split of voting. Such a finely balanced coalition government would necessarily seek cross-party support for policies rather than pursuing and failing to get the more dramatic changes it proposes.
Richard, thanks for sharing. Long time absorber of your work, but first time poster.
Labour is no longer a left-wing party in any meaningful sense. Since the election, it has walked back core pledges and embraced policies rooted in market orthodoxy and fiscal restraint. Starmer, Rayner and Reeves now front a platform that supports deregulated labour, private capital, and a hands-off approach to wealth. This isn’t a shift in strategy — it’s a change in identity.
The problem is the lexicon hasn’t caught up. Labour still trades on the emotional weight of its brand — fairness, solidarity, working-class roots — but under the surface it’s something else entirely. A new product in old packaging. A rebrand competing in a different market — one shaped by post-crash economics, weakened unions, and a public worn down by instability.
When the lens of time zooms out, we’ll see this for what it is — the managed transition zone into something colder. A democratic facade serving increasingly authoritarian, market-driven ends. The party hasn’t just moved right — it’s part of a new consensus, and we’re already living in it. We are governed by the Neo Right Enablement Party.
Agreed
Thank you
Sorry, I realise that this is a tad dystopic sounding – but its the summation of a piece im writing for my blog. Anyway, thanks for your insight as always, Richard.
Andrew
https://www.thecanary.co/uk/news/2025/07/17/house-of-the-people-meeting/
On 21st 22nd July.