As readers here will know, I ran a poll yesterday on what might happen in the 2029 general election.
This was based on yesterday's YouTube video, where the same poll was run.
These were the two results, with the results on this blog first:
Two polls, with different audiences and differing outcomes, at least in emphasis, although a clear common leader in both cases.
What intrigued me was that the larger YouTube sample gave more emphasis to the Tories. I am not sure why they did. I consider them almost irrelevant at present. Maybe I shouldn't.
The other finding is that this blog has more belief in alternatives.
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I think the blog has people who are more interested in politics, and perhaps have a great depth of knowledge.
YouTube is more likely to randomly select people to view a video.
That might suggest that blog-readers are more likely to make an accurate prediction, if everyone had their knowledge and experience.
But the world is probably more like YouTube readers, and may show how the public is likely to vote.
Interestingly, both polls seem certain that Labour will lose in 2029. One might expect that on You Tube, where there will be a significant reflecting of or very right-wing mainstream media. That the more politically aware blog readership reached the same conclusion should worry Labour leadership even more.
Basically, Labour are not just losing the mainstream PR battle, they’re losing respect for their political strategies too.
What labour political strategies? I am still waiting to see one.
I think you’ll find that a staggering number of people won’t even bother to vote in the next election, alot of people now look at the system as being beyond repair.
The non-voters are already here. In a recent by-election due to the death of the sitting MP (Hamilton in Central Scotland), the turnout was lower than 25%. A turnout that has 75% of voters effectively placing their crosses in ‘none of the above’ should be declared null, and rerun after a suitable period of campaigning and reflection. Is 50% the cut-off point. My feeling is it should be higher, but it would be a start.
Compulsory voting? Australia has it and it seems to work.
P.S. Labour ‘won’ on fewer votes than when they lost last time. Farage Ltd came third. Democracy lost.
Much to agree with
I voted ‘other parties will win’ because:-
1. Labour have not found any way of communicating a positive narrative which might actually make people feel better off, nor are they likely to unless there’s a massive clear-out of those controlling the party.
2. The Conservatives are very unlikely to be able to gain enough momentum by 2029 to have any real impact on the 2029 general election.
3. I can’t see Reform having any genuine offering. They are IMHO largely apolitical/a one trick pony with a racist agenda and nothing else.
All in all, I see a coalition government, consisting of Labour, Lib Dem, Green and Reform, which if it comes to pass won’t last long.
Finally, hopefully, we might get some real reform and a left leaning party to vote for, but I’m not holding my breath.
I must confess the polls do not surprise me and though I am not a member of the Labour party I was keen that the Tories were ousted at the last GE.
Labour’s leadership may well be LINO but whenever I stop and reflect on the last 14 years of Conservatives in power (ref Conservative Effect…. 14 wasted years? see Anthony Seldon, Tom Egerton et al) and the scale of the mess they inherited, it is frankly massive:
Defence
Immigration
International Relations especially EU
Economy
National Infrastructure and Utilities
Social Ills
Health and Care
Education
Local Govt
The list fuck-ups to put right, challenges, etc, goes on and on.
To make matters worse the Labour top team is very inexperienced and they seem instinctively cautious not bold or very strategic. Neither do they appear to consult widely on any of the issues and those they do consort with Blackrock in the Cabinet Office! Really?
International affairs that are beyond the UK’s control has given them opportunities to change direction and they have largely clung to existing orthodoxies from what I can see. We seem on occasions to have a Treasury Dept that just happens to have a government as an appendage. What will it take to break this stranglehold?
Perhaps any incoming party would have be overwhelmed by the scale of things to tackle and our cohort of MPs does seem to me to be low quality compared to the past but that might be an age bias on my part.
I try to be a tad sympathetic given the scale of the mess as perhaps you can tell but the lack of vision about the kind of society they want to see and how to go about building it, nurturing and defending it seems clearly missing and beyond those in power. I suspect across the House of Commons it is no better.
It is only when I ignore media commentators and the think tank circus and talk to ordinary people especially those with some real expertise I start to be hopeful that we really can tackle the mess and improve society.
With luck the GE in 2029 will break our two party politics but I’m fearful that with parties that are only used to frankly adversarial interactions that the new House will simply be incapable of cooperating sufficiently to govern in the new ways required and even if they manage to in some way be more constructive with each other the existing orthodoxies established so deeply in places like HMT, the wider Civil Service, BoE, IFS, etc will mean anything genuinely new in policy terms is snuffed out.
I know of a number of people who are struggling with the political status quo as they feel it doesn’t deliver for a variety of reasons.
Change I think is in the air and our establishment in for a shock.