The MAGA put Trump back in the White House, but like Biden before him, nothing he's doing is going to make ordinary Americans feel better off, and we know what they did to the Democrats as a result.
This is the audio version:
This is the transcript:
When will the MAGA give up on Trump? What I mean is, when will the ordinary Americans, who have populated the Make America Great Again movement that has got Trump into the White House for the second time, get fed up with him? Because I think they will. And I think it's going to happen soon. Because what he's doing is really not achieving for them.
He is not making America great again. After all, giving in to Russia is hardly a sign of America being great again.
Withdrawing from the world and saying the USA will not take part in the defense of Europe and many other places is not making America great again.
Declaring trade war on other countries is actually not making America great again. It makes it look as though it's pretty small minded and is trying to pursue an agenda of pettiness against other countries whose tax systems they don't understand.
But that's not the real reason why the MAGA will, I think, give up on Trump. The MAGA supported Trump because he told them he would make them better off. It's as simple and as straightforward as that.
Biden failed to deliver on that point. Biden did deliver economic growth for the USA. There are many ways in which you could say, if you use growth as the metric for success, that Biden was a good president. He did indeed grow the economy out from the Covid era in a way that the UK, for example, did not succeed in doing. But, and this ‘but' is an enormous ‘but', the fact is that most Americans did not see the benefit of that growth. The growth did go as most growth in the USA has for a long time, to the richest part of the community.
The ordinary person, the person working for a wage, the person in the blue collar sector, in the Rust Belt, in the Midwest farm, saw no increase in their well-being, and nor did many in the American middle class, which is becoming a much bigger issue than it was before, and is in fact the reason why America tipped from Biden to Trump, because the middle classes were willing to support him.
So, the question is, will Trump deliver for the MAGA, those people who voted for him? And my suggestion is that he won't and the reasons why are quite straightforward.
Musk is in charge of federal spending. At the moment, he appears to be unfettered in that role. And what we know is that he's trying to seriously cut the federal headcount, for example.
But the federal headcount is heavily involved with the management of defense, which is something that the MAGA seriously believe in.
And a significant number of people, something like half a million federal employees, are involved in veterans' issues. And the veterans are most definitely MAGA supporters in the main.
And so he's actually looking for cuts issues that are at the very core of the MAGA political agenda; the things that they believe in.
But he's going to do things that are worse than that. He has already announced the effective closure of the entire USAID program. But the USAID program, when it supplies food aid, very largely supplies US grown food. In fact, at least $2 billion dollars of US-grown food will no longer be bought by the US government as part of the US aid program. And the hit from that is going to fall on the Midwest states. The states where the MAGA are strongest will suffer the most from this change.
And they're also going to suffer from other programmes. There is a significant cut in state support for education. And yet, that state support for education goes more heavily to poorer Republican states than it goes to anywhere else.
There's something ironic about the fact that, apparently, the state budget of West Virginia is 20 percent supplied by the federal government. The rate of subsidy is extraordinary compared to the rest of the USA because it is so poor, and yet that is a strongly MAGA Republican state, and they're going to lose out badly. As are their schools.
Will the MAGA be happy about that? I really don't think so.
And nor will they be when it becomes obvious that the only way in which Musk can deliver real cuts to the federal budget if he's going to leave defence alone by and large, is by cutting the Medicare budget in addition to the education budget, and there's little doubt that he's going to try to do that.
He's already cut the funding for medical research, and that's an issue that's close to the hearts of many people. Cancer research is, for example, something that most people support. But the vast majority of cancer research in the USA has now been cancelled, by Musk. And if he then moves on, and it looks like he will, with some of the announcements that are already being made, to review the Medicare budgets which supplies healthcare for 25 per cent of all US children, many of whom will, of course, be the children of MAGA supporters, then he's going to tip the balance against Trump.
All of these things will matter. Because what it means is that the fundamental promise that people thought that Trump had made to them is going to fail. And that's when political tipping points happen.
Joe Biden could say, and did say repeatedly, that he had done the right thing by the USA. And as I've said, technically, he did. But people didn't notice.
Trump will claim he's made America great again by, he hopes, increasing the number of jobs, although nobody knows how that's going to come as a result of tariffs.
He'll claim he's made America great again by bringing troops back home. But what are they all going to do? Or is he going to get rid of them? And remember, many of the MAGA are firm believers in the number of troops that the US should have.
And he's going to claim that he's made America great again by, in effect, creating a significant sales tax which will be paid most heavily by the poorest in US society, whilst tax cuts will, of course, go very largely to the rich.
None of those claims are going to stack in the eyes of ordinary people who can see through such nonsense and work out whether it has really hit their pockets or not.
They will realise that Trump is hitting their pockets.
They will realise that he's threatening their livelihoods.
They will realise that the subsidies that have underpinned Midwest agriculture, for example, are disappearing.
They might even not like the fact that all the support for green programmes is being removed because those green programmes are providing essential infrastructure spending in many areas that desperately need it.
When it comes down to it, Trump is actually putting forward a programme that the MAGA really won't like. It might be fast and furious, frantic and frenetic and everything else that begins with an F right now, and I can't think of any other appropriate words to add to that list. But the point is, once we actually get beyond this period, where it's so hard to keep up with the news, the fun will end.
The people will find out that Trump is not for real. Actually, his fiscal policy will be failing them. I did think of a few more F's, and they're all appropriate in this case.
The point is Trump is going to fail. And the MAGA will not be able to avoid noticing. And when that happens, the Democrats should be ready because if they had a sensible program at that point, and I have no idea whether they will or not because, frankly, they haven't proved themselves very capable of fighting elections for some time, but if they did have credible candidates and a credible programme that would meet the needs of ordinary Americans, they could be back in both the Senate and Congress in 2026, and Trump's reign could come to an end.
He's in deep trouble.
He's failing the people who put him in the White House.
And he can't afford to do that.
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I agree Trump will fail to deliver what most Americans want – but then so did the Democrats. Not just in America, but around the world the duopoly merry-go-round of centre-right and centre-left parties each in turn failing to make things better is precisely what is enabling more extreme parties (of both the left and right, as the most recent French election demonstrated).
The right does not offer real solutions – but neither can the likes of the Democrats in America. They could, in fact, have avoided the current mess by selecting Sanders in 2016 (subsequent opinion polling showed he would have beaten Trump then) – but the point is that they can’t do that, because they are funded by big business and the US media is controlled by big business, and big business doesn’t want the kind of change that’s really needed in America.
Thank you, both, and, in particular Geof, well said.
The cracks have appeared already. Steve Bannon has urged DOGE to investigate waste and corruption at the Pentagon. Others, including on the Christian right, want to end the alliance with Israel and have criticised Trump’s support for Israel. South Carolina senator Lyndsey Graham has sounded the alarm about the loss of support for Israel amongst evangelicals.
The MAGA are not happy
I suggest that the US is in the same situation as the UK with a ‘Single Transferrable party’ and as with the UK one of them is just a bit more ‘differently sane’ than the other.
“when will the ordinary Russians……..who reelected Putin into the Kremlin, get fed up with him? Because I think they will. And I think it’s going to happen soon. Because what he’s doing is really not achieving for them.”
Putin has total control over the media space, the Mango Mussolini less so. But. The people that elected the Mango don’t listen to media voices that deliver a message that is different from Fox News & the media rabble that support Mango. Some might feel that things are not so good – but the propaganda will tell them: soon, soon things will be better, we are MAGA!! etc.
That said, both regimes are “brittle” when they go, they wil go in an interesting and spectacular fashion.
I think partly you are right. This is their plan. I think they defunded the election watchdog over the weekend.
However, neither Musk or Trump can hold a candle to Putin when it comes to statecraft, strategy or ruthlessness. They are big on bluster and show. Putin is quiet and calculating. He knows properganda and state craft, he’s lived though the fall of a superpower. I hate him, but appreciate that he knows what he’s doing.
Musk and Trump are chaotic and stumbling around trying everything they can. Their plan is flawed and self contradictory.
Well no, the people that elected him listen to Twitter, conveniently owned by Trump’s best friend. Who just bought a medium, changed the rules on it and used it to push his own agenda, just like a modern day Rupert Murdoch. The real fireworks will come if Trump and Musk fall out…
There is no if about that falling out
King Donald’s line is there is massive fraud everywhere, Judges who uphold applications to stop his orders should be impeached.
Do not expect the Supreme Court to uphold the rule of law/the US Constitution.
Medicaid is about to be slashed for 72mn Americans. The strap line will be that they are spongers, this is stopping fraud.
The job cuts to Federal consumer protection boards, the IRS etc is only going to help King Donald’s, Musk’s and the other tech bros business interests.
Will the ordinary MAGA supporters suffer? Absolutely. But they will accept the declarations from King Donald that their suffering is part of his majestic plan.
Trump has laid bare the US empire and its vicious interventions that date back over a century. He has also exposed the vacuous nature of US politics, that we now seem doomed to simulate, and the plutocracy that is the US base politic. Our curse is that this has occurred after 40 odd years of enfeeblement of the UK via neoliberal policy, media lies and useless leadership.
National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) workers were among hundreds of employees in the Energy Department who received termination letters. The department designs, builds and oversees the USA’s nuclear weapons stockpile. They sacked them on Thursday, realised their mistake (or, more likely, it was pointed out to the dopes), and tried to re-hire them on Friday, however, they don’t have contact details for all of the staff. They’re clueless and dangerous.
Regarding the cuts in medical research, perhaps you haven’t seen this:
“A federal judge in Massachusetts blocked Donald Trump’s administration from cutting scientific research grants from the National Institutes of Health (NIH) after 22 mostly Democratic-leaning states sued.”
Note that the funding is being restored/prevented from being cut only in the blue states which took part in the case. Cuts will be going ahead elsewhere.
Trump’s been bankrupt at least half a dozen times. Everything he’s involved in turns to dust. He will cause great harm in the US, perhaps irreparably, and around the world.
Stiglitz piece in Guardian showing how unilateral breaking of trade deals and contracts of public institutions will destabilise the economy and deter investment.
But how ever bad it gets for his MAGA base – now he’s a cult figure, it is difficult to know how the catastrophe will happen.
Is he really in trouble though? The rich put him in the White House – the MAGA just did the voting. Remember “Musk gives me $45 million a month – we’ve got to make things good for people like him”. And now the rich can continue, unfettered, to pursue an agenda that benefits them. Musk is getting his return on his investment.
Is Trump actually interested in building some sort of Kennedy like family dynasty in which other members of his family will try and win on the back of his “achievements” in later years? Given that he can’t stand again anyway, I’m not sure of the sense in which he’s actually in trouble. When you suggest 2026 for a Democrat comeback, are you just thinking that they’ll block everything he wants to do ortry and impeach him again?
Of course he can stand again
There is a coup going on
Richard, not sure if this Twitter link will work but this was posted by one of the OSINT people I follow.
This stuff needs to be brought to the attention of everyone – IT IS DEEPLY SCARY.
If you follow the obvious direction this is going (and I include in that what’s happening between the US and Russia, given Trump and his minions obvious preference for Putin) there’ll be no further elections in the US. So anyone who thinks our salvation from the madness of Trump is the midterms in 2026 is being way too optimistic.
It’s two tweats from Musk:
https://x.com/ProjectLiberal/status/1891333429876146658
In case the link doesn’t work in the top tweat Musk says:
‘One of the first things Hitler did upon gaining power was apply aggressive censorship.’
In the one below he says:
’60 Minutes are the biggest liars in the world! They engaged in deliberate deception to interfere with the last election. They deserve and long prison sentence.’
For those who don’t know 60 Minutes is a well respected current affairs programme. It’s alleged by Trump and his cronies that the programme makers edited an interview with Kamala Harris so that she came across better than she should have. This is their ‘crime’ and the fact that 60 Minutes journalists are good at their job
The coup continues, Ivan.
The assumption that the USA even approximates to a democracy is hard to sustain.
It does, Richard, and at pace. Here’s a piece by a retired Canadian Admiral warning Canadian’s that they need to take action now. He likens Trumps behavior to Jack in Lord of the Flies. To quote one section:
‘Jack and his tribesmen are convinced of a series of perceived injustices and economic disparities levied against the United States since the end of the Second World War, and by extension they blame much of the world — including Canada — for many of their current woes. As a remedy they intend to reset the entire global system to their advantage, and they don’t care about the consequences. Recent comments to NATO’s leadership by one of Jack’s henchmen that U.S. security interests lie outside of Europe are a case in point. In this emerging reality, are we as Canadians any different than Ukraine is to Russia or Taiwan to China? We need not like, or even agree with this possibility, but we had best acknowledge and understand it.’
The full article – which is not long – is here: https://nationalpost.com/opinion/mark-norman-canadas-relationship-with-the-u-s-cant-be-saved
Thanks
It appears this was the 60 Minutes Musk was so upset about – and Vance – as they examine actions the Germans take against hate speech – or free speech as Vance et all would have it.
If you wan to get a sense of how the MAGA are nowhere near giving up on Trump and co yet have a looks at some of the comments.
https://x.com/ChrisMurphyCT/status/1891476167288332440
My last on this theme, Richard.
Have a look at the comment from Vance after the response from the Holocaust Centre.
https://x.com/mehdirhasan/status/1891249700797391080
Despite what the Centre say – which we all know is fact – to Vance this is an attack on ‘free speech’ – by which he – and Musk, Trump and all those other ultras – mean being able to say anything hateful, discriminatory, and potentially dangerous that you want.
On which point, it’s well worth watching a film called ‘The Order’, based on a true story about the ‘Aryan Nation’ from the 1980s and also staring two British actors: Jude Law as the ‘goodie’ and Nicholas Hoult as the ‘baddie
This is very frightening
The holocaust had no philosophy attached to it? Really? This is bizarre
I full agree that he will fail to deliver. I unfortunately do not think I will ever get the sweet satisfaction of MAGA admitting any such thing.