Trump has, off the cuff, and whilst mid-air on Air Force One, announced that the US will impose new, universal 25 per cent tariffs on steel and aluminium imported into the USA, starting from today. The details are a bit sketchy as yet - which must make it fun for US tax collectors trying to get matters right on the ground, but it seems that the tariff means that most existing exemptions from such charges are withdrawn, meaning that these charges will have a big impact both in and outside the USA.
Let's ignore for a moment the international politics of tariffs - which are complicated in a world where supply chains themselves are complicated, long and very hard to unpick after decades of increasing globalisation. These facts mitigate against these tariffs having much success in terms of job creation and market protection for the USA. Simultaneously, they suggest that those tariffs will have a widespread impact outside the USA.
One of the countries that will be impacted will be the UK. We export steel to the USA. The standard response to the imposition of a tariff is to impose one in return. That is how trade wars start and are perpetuated.
The question is, what will the UK do? Will Starmer fight back, as would be expected? Or will he continue to suck up to Trump and turn on his back to have his tummy tickled in the hope of getting a trade deal with a fascist?
In the case of Starmer, who knows? I am making no predictions. But his choice of prevarication will be harder to maintain soon. If Trump is attacking the UK, Starmer has to be seen to be doing something. The options of waiting, appeasement, or prevarication (you take your pick; multiple options can be chosen) will be over. Starmer will have to do what he has never seemingly been trained for: a decision will be required of him. At the very least, this will be interesting to watch. It might also tell us a great deal about where we are heading.
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Starmer it seems doesnt do ‘Politics’
All his ‘Growth’ ideas are very much kicking the can down the road so how will he react to something that requires action now?
and here is one of Starmers gofers – Lammy (Lame-y?) ref steel & the UK’s “response”
“In an interview with the Guardian’s Pippa Crerar last week, David Lammy, the foreign secretary, implied the government would not go for retaliatory tariffs. He said:
It’s a cross-party position that we’re an open, free-market society that doesn’t believe in tariffs, in either direction.”
Truly pathetic. Lammy, unfit to be a door-stop in the FO. On a positive note, it could be worse, if DeForm were in they would be selling the NHS & anything else asap to Trump et al.
Starmer is not a person with political strength, unless it involves being a “strong leader” against “rebels” or those without means to strike back. If starmer was smart (he’s not) be should advise trump that the uk will curtail usa military capability from uk in retaliation. He wont, but that would possibly make trump rethink tariffs on the uk. I dont think ANY party leadership has the strength of character we need now, in so many areas of ever growing concern
Thank you, Ed.
Ed: “If Starmer was smart (he’s not) be should advise trump that the UK will curtail USA military capability from UK in retaliation. He wont.”
I would say Starmer and, most, but not all, British politicians can’t. A fortnight ago, Rory Stewart gave the game away. He said the UK’s only source of influence is derived from being America’s closest ally, but Trump was making that role embarrassing and politically awkward.
I would add that the US war machine can make life difficult as it did, in the background and using proxies, often funded by USAID*, for Corbyn.
If the UK was in the EU, it could have some safety in / from the numbers, but that’s no longer possible and a rapprochement has been ruled out, including by Mandelson last week. “Petie”, as his late friend called him, is busy walking back all his comments about Trump, the EU* etc.
Mandelson complained that the EU was a compliance machine for business.
In any case, the EU may not stand up to the US. Over the week-end, former French diplomat and politician, Dominique de Villepin was critical of the US, noted that Trump was just an adaptation of US policy over decades and suggested that France may have to leave the EU and NATO if both continue to serve US interests and ignore international law. Villepin gave a big hint about running on a Gaullist platform in 2027. There’s talk of an alliance between what’s left of the Gaullists and left.
On a related note; A German accountant I was speaking to yesterday noted that defense spending (in percentage terms) was a function of the distance of a given member state from Moscow. Apparently Spanish spending is derisory, & Portugese non-existent. We kicked around the idea of a European defense force with a focus on buying European equipment – consensus was that there was insufficinet “community spirit” (= to much of member states focusing on themselves). Pathetic that the largest trading block on the planet cannot get its act together on defense.
There is no political unioty in the EU. The mistake was in assuming a trading bloc could a) create that unity and b) needed a single currency.
The only choice is to go for an exemption, preferred partner status or whatever, but at what cost? How hard a bargain will will Trump drive?
Canada is a big ally producer (Alcan?) & quite a bit of it goes into cars produced in the USA. Which means more expensive cars. In the case of the UK, probably a bargaining chips: no tariffs on Uk steel but access for US “healthcare” companies (I use the word healthcare losely) to the NHS. Much of the mango mussolini’s reign will be like that – transactional. A silly demand & then a trade.
By the way, watching “Mussolini: Son of the Century” well done but hideous & leaving one wondering (as with Mango) why the hell did the Italians vote for this truly pathetic creature (ditto Mango). Humans eh!”
Last week the UK government announced that it will be removing the current tariffs on Chinese E bikes, knocking up to £200.00 of their prices.
Don’t expect Labour to do anything “tough” in the forthcoming tariff wars.
“The question is, what will the UK do? Will Starmer fight back, as would be expected? Or will he continue to suck up to Trump and turn on his back to have his tummy tickled in the hope of getting a trade deal with a fascist?”
It will be the latter option surely. As befits Labour’s new ‘adverts’ that ‘celebrate’ and show filming of deportation raids and flights to ‘win back’ Reform voters, McSweeney will tell Starmer to get his ‘tummy tickled’ by Trump. It’s all ‘clever, clever politics’ from McSweeney and his team!
John Harris’ Guardian opinion piece reviewing “Get In” the story of Starmer and the election is very instructive of Starmer almost being controlled by McSweeney and his clique:
“Having cunningly manoeuvred Labour to victory, Starmer’s advisers have apparently failed to supply him with a coherent governing script, exposing his lack of politics, and leaving him panicked.”
It is well worth reading John Harris’ piece in full:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/feb/09/keir-starmer-politics-labour-growth-reform-uk
Well worth reading
Thank you, both.
McSweeney is a Mandelson man, as is Streeting. I reckon it’s deliberate, so that Blair and Mandelson can get their man in sooner rather than later.
Blair and Mandelson have hinted at that. However, Streeting’s style and lack of expertise / competence have given them second thoughts, so their attention is shifting towards back up Darren Jones.
Starmer realises that he’s the creature of the Blair machine and Mandelson, has no support base and Streeting and Rayner covet his job, hence promoting Reeves as a counterweight, source of support and to make up for his lack of economics knowledge, if not disinterest.
Thank you, both.
This comment, with 140 up votes so far, caught my eye. I can well imagine.
“As I’ve said before, Starmer, it seems plain to me, was never meant to be PM. Labour Together Ltd., the multimillionaire-funded project that has now completely taken over its host, selected him as a “clean skin” to deliver the party machine to them, but then be replaced by someone like Streeting before they got into government.
The plan was working well as Starmer took the heat for ditching the “foundational” Corbyn policies that got him elected leader, and moved the Party inexorably Right. He even dishonestly connived in the pantomime to expel Corbyn, in order to prevent him being a rallying point for the Left.
However, where they came unstuck, was the unforeseen speed with which the Tories committed electoral suicide. That caught them out. They expected Starmer to lead them into another defeat in 2024, be then replaced by Streeting or Reeves, before their “glorious” return to power in 2029.
That’s why they are like the dog who chased the car and caught it- they’ve got the object of their pursuit, but having got it, have no idea what to do with it.
Having vanquished the hated Left, they could hardly start implementing their policies- the donors would go apeshit, anyway. So, they’re stuck delivering re-heated Blairite and Cameron policies, like some dodgy K-Tel 70’s Top of the Pops covers album.*
*For our younger viewers, K-Tel produced records (like a download, but plastic) of top pop hits, but performed by unknown cover artists.”
Increase VAT by 25% on specific products from American based companies: Apple, Coca Cola, IBM, Microsoft etc. (Note: VAT, not import duty – that will really hurt!)
Yes, already overpriced Apple stuff is made in China – but this is all about playground gesture politics not reality.
Almost impossible to do…
Unless America has ready to go steel and aluminium production, the immediate effect of these tariffs will just be on American consumers, and importantly, American infrastructure – think bridges and skyscrapers. Is there really a need to worry about this in the short term? In any case, these materials are required worldwide, so there is a ready market for British Steel if it wants to broaden its trading partners.
Steel demand does not change that fast
And many steels are hyper specialised, as are their productiin processes.
Disruption is inevitable.
The steel tariffs will freeze the USA construction industry in its tracks as if it was suspended and frozen in some space-time continuum.
This makes them so bizarre
We can now see that the McSweeney project was all about gaining power not doing anything with power.
The non-stop resets, blaming everyone else for the mess, the constant fear of upsetting the City.
There is nothing to suggest that McSweeney has any idea what to do to improve the lot of the ordinary people of the UK.
Nor is there any hint of the rest of the Labour party being willing or able to depose him.
It is the work of David Evans (former Gen Sec) and the Blairite regional/CLP machine that has rendered McSweeney, McFadden etc unassailable from below decks. Regional Officer positions are 99% in the hands of Blairite machine politicians who have been there in many cases since the 1990s/2000s. The NEC is in the hands of the Right, helped by massive chicanery in and around elections (cf Wimborne-Idrissi being elected and removed almost immediately) and a voting method that has been manipulated to provide shock wins for Right candidates (yes folks, corrupt to the core, shocked, I tell you, shocked!).
Colonel Smithers, many thanks for the post explaining why McSweeney and the plan is so s***e.
The exceptional UK is well and truly stuffed.
Good luck with your move out of the UK.
Thank you, John.
I’m hearing from friends with little, often an Irish or other EU grandparent, or, usually, no overseas connections seeking a way out.
One is west country gentry, minor landowners going back centuries, and married to the granddaughter of immigrants from Ireland. It feels like seeing no way out for and giving up on Britain. None of us felt it would get to that or accelerate once a Labour, albeit LINO, government took over. It certainly gives us no pleasure.
If the argument against tariffs (in the US) is that they hurt ordinary Americans with higher prices then the mirror argument for (UK) retaliatory tariffs is the same. Why would the UK government want to push up prices for UK consumers?
Of course, the politics of “just do nothing” is impossible… but economically “unilateral free trade” is probably best if you are a small nation with little leverage. Of course, reduced exports will be bad news for the UK economy but this should be countered with lower rates and a weaker currency rather that a chest thumping trade war.
Now, if you are part of a serious trade bloc (the EU) then you might (only might) have better options…. but I don’t think we (the UK) does.