Trump was slow to get going in his first presidency. This time he's planning on an impact from day one, and that impact could be horrible, and the repercussions terrible.
This is the audio version:
This is the transcript:
What does Trump want? No one, of course, knows for sure, and we won't for a while, I hope, because he isn't president until five o'clock this afternoon in the UK, midday in the USA, and after that, well literally, who knows what will happen next? Trump has promised a great deal to his followers, and many of those things are contradictory. But let's pull out three things that he has definitely said he was going to start doing on day one of his presidency.
He said he was going to start imposing tariffs: tariffs on countries that immediately border the USA, like Mexico and Canada, but also on the European Union and, of course, on China.
What his supporters did not appear to work out before the election in November was that the tariffs payable on the goods that they supply to people in America are not paid by the country that exports the goods. They are paid by the American consumer who buys the goods, and this is going to have a massive impact, of course, on the American economy given that they do import a significant quantity of goods, and in particular things like tech and cars, as well as quite a lot of fuel - surprisingly - and that comes mainly from Canada.
This is going to be deeply disruptive for the US economy. What is more, it's going to increase taxes, and maybe significantly, because this is like having an end consumer VAT imposed right across the USA, and they don't have a value added tax at present.
So, therefore, there's going to be inflation in the USA. By how much? We don't know because we don't know what the tariffs are going to be and what they're going to be on as yet. But without a doubt, one of the things that Trump promised to his supporters was lower inflation. And one of the things that, at present, it looks like he will deliver will be higher inflation. How are they going to react? Who knows? There are so many imponderables that I am presenting to you in this video, and that's fair because I don't think Trump knows what he's doing either.
The same is exactly true of another of his promises. He said he's going to start today - later today - expelling people from the USA if they are not legal migrants into that country. And what we know is that there are around 11 million people in the USA who do not have official paperwork but who, nonetheless, live and work there.
He says he's going to round these people up. He says he's going to use force if necessary. He's going to put them in deportation camps if required, and he is going to expel them from the country. It's an interesting prospect, except for the horrific humanitarian aspects to it, which are going to be utterly disastrous in their consequences for the people involved.
It's also going to be utterly disastrous for the US economy, and in particular for the comfortable people in the USA who are very inclined to outsource their domestic services.
All the people who cut the grass in the USA are likely to be undocumented workers.
So are many of the people who are doing DIY, and those who are walking the dogs, or cleaning the cars, and so many other jobs of that sort, where documentation is not required because the people providing the services are not in employment, and cannot, therefore, be checked in the way that an employee can be.
The American service economy is dependent on a very large scale on the existence of those 11 million people.
Another dimension, which is not commonly mentioned but which I'm talking about, is that there is an enormous tutoring market in America for kids who need help to get the right grades to get into their colleges or whatever else. Those tutors are the are very often undocumented migrants. Well-educated people are willing to sell their services at an undervalue, and they are going to be expelled.
The backlash from the economy is going to be significant.
The human chaos is going to be enormous.
The protests are going to be at a level which I think is frankly unimaginable because almost everyone in America is going to know someone who's going to be impacted by this programme.
And that is going to create a world that, well, Trump just doesn't really understand.
And what else is Trump going to do? According to him, he and Elon Musk are going to cut the federal budget in the USA.
And what else are they going to do? Trump and his current ally, Elon Musk, have promised cuts to the federal budget. Now we don't, again, know how much they're talking about. Whatever they've said in advance of the election could be complete baloney, and they will deny they said it anyway, whatever the documentation to prove otherwise might be, because that's the sort of people they are.
But the suggestion is that they might try to cut out up to $2 trillion from the US federal budget of $7 trillion. Can they do that? In theory, they could.
They could stop paying interest, for example, on the US national debt. But that isn't going to go down well with those who hold it.
They could cut out the American military. But again, that's not going to go down well with the MAGA, the Make America Great Again crowd, who love the military.
They could cut out all support for Medicare and the related medical programs that are funded by the US federal state to provide medicine and medical care to about 25 per cent of the US population who would otherwise go without.
And they could cut out support for a lot of educational programs.
Of those, what are the most likely to be cut? Medicine and education. Those are the obvious areas. There is nothing else that can achieve anything like the scale of cuts that Musk is talking about.
So is that what he's going to do? Is he actually going to leave or a quarter of the USA without medical support in a country where you cannot get free medicine? Maybe, but what are the social consequences of that going to be?
And is he really going to cut the support for education programs in the most deprived areas of the USA, many of which, by the way, are in Republican states? I doubt it.
So, Trump comes into office with a whole line of promises which look to be utterly unsustainable and undeliverable.
Oh, and when I talk about sustainability, let's remember, he's going to pull the USA out of every programme which will tackle climate change because he doesn't believe in it. That is another area where he is going to come into conflict with the people of the USA because whilst undoubtedly there are climate change deniers in that country, probably in greater proportion than most, the young people of the USA will realise that managing climate change is vital.
In other words, this Trump presidency is not going to be like the last one. The first Trump presidency literally reached the point of conflict on the last effective day when he had a chance to do anything about it, which was 6th January 2021, when he, of course, encouraged the coup, which almost toppled the power in the Senate, but that failed.
This time. I think he's going to bring forward this crisis, this conflict, this direct aggression, which will be the basis of his policy much earlier. We could see it by Tuesday. He could literally be passing presidential orders that are directing, for example, American forces internally in the USA to begin rounding up people for expulsion by Tuesday morning.
He could be announcing tariffs by Tuesday morning.
If he does, as I say, this will be in marked contrast to his first presidency, where, relatively speaking, he started walking quite slowly until he worked out what the whole game was about. This time, that's not going to happen. Trump is going to hit the ground running.
But hit the ground is what he's going to do. And the bounce is going to be horribly uncomfortable. And the repercussions will be terrible.
Trump is here for better or worse. And I can't find a better, but I can see a lot of things that are going to be worse.
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You write so well. I feel that your invitation to fly over to the USA for a debate is not far away.
I won’t be going. That is what zoom is for.
Part of our global pushback must surely be weaning ourselves off big tech surveillance platforms like Zoom. I try to avoid using it, but admit I sometimes relent if I really want the content. However, when I am in control of choosing the platform I use Jitsi, an open source privacy based alternative. To use Zoom you accept their T’s&C’s, and agree they can use your image, voice and call content to train AI.
Jeffrey, my reading of the Zoom privacy page appears to say that they do NOT use your content for training AI. On https://www.zoom.com/en/trust/privacy/ it says:
“Zoom does not use any of your audio, video, chat, screen sharing, attachments or other communications-like Customer Content (such as poll results, whiteboard and reactions) to train Zoom’s or its third-party artificial intelligence models.” – whether we believe them or not is another matter! And T&Cs change all the time.
I usually use Google Meet for video conferencing, and at our meeting last Thursday it started popping up notifications that Gemini (1 of Google’s AI engines) would monitor the meeting and produce a summary and transcription (although it looked like anyone could turn this feature off – default was on though).
We let it do it’s thing – and actually it produced a pretty fair summary, including the part where we discussed the legal ramifications of Gemini monitoring your conversation!
[…] have commented in this morning's video on the economic consequences of what Trump is likely to do, and that matters, of course. But it is […]
In fairness to Johnson, he was calling for an amnesty for ‘illegals’ when he was Mayor of London precisely because he realised their importance to the economy of London
What is going to be interesting and instructive is just how Trump will set about his task. It will be with the same sort of glee as we saw in the Tory party from 2010.
Then contrast that with our tepid leading ‘left party’ currently in power.
Say what you like about the Right. But they know what they want. It is a loophole in liberalism they have always exploited and have no qualms about it.
We can only hope that they are all so greedy that they rip themselves apart whilst they eviscerate the world.
Much to agree with
Surely it’s not a tepid left party in power but a right wing party that believes economic growth requires allowing the rich to ride rough shod over everybody else! It does that because like Thatcher it believes the government has no money of its own and so whilst the rich get even wealthier the planet will burn. Meanwhile as all this happens members of this government will be accepting some freebie junkets/trinkets from the rich by way encouragement for their misrule. Meantime the Laudanum for the Literati mainstream media do their best to cover up what’s going on! The Labour Party is your enemy not your friend and has been for decades!
Schofield
I quite agree but I was being sarcastic, hence the quotation marks.
on your theme, can I draw attention to this piece by Henry Hill? He feels the right have this problem too.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jan/20/tories-no-idea-what-leader-looks-like-kemi-badenoch
I suspect if there is significant resistance to Trump’s immigrant round-up, which is likely given the level of citizen armament in USA, he will move to the next phase – dismiss the democratic leaders of the state concerned, impose a gauleiter from the MAGA ranks etc. The big prize is California where arresting/dismissing a potential rival (Newsom) opens the biggest economy in the States for Trump’s allies.
The round up of ‘illegals’ starts first thing Tuesday morning, Richard. The person Trump’s put in charge stated that clearly last week (covered on MSNBC) and also that if anyone stands in the way of the round up he will arrest and prosecute them. I think the latter statement was aimed at officials and politicians (Democrats) in what are called ‘sanctuary cities’, but obviously apply more widely.
I also expect we’ll see Executive orders attacking the media (but not Fox, of course), and maybe individuals in the media. And I also think it very likely that by the end of the week we’ll see the new Attorney General (Pam Bondi) issue arrest warrants for quite a few people who’ve been involved in the legal cases against Trump, such as Jack Smith.
But what intrigues me most is what actions they’re going to take to either cancel of completely corrupt the mid terms in 2026. Obviously Twitter, Facebook, Tik Tok, etc and some of the mainstream media are all going to be used. But ultimately things may have to get much nastier, because, as I’ve mentioned in previous comments, there’s no way that now the tech oligarchs have taken control US democracy they’re going to give it back to ‘the people.’
I afraid that gives much to agree with
Everyone presumes that the USA only needs to deport the immigrants. But they have to be accepted by a third country. This will be very different from accepting the very small numbers of criminal deportees.
What if South American countries all refuse to accept plane loads by refusing landing access? What is Trump going to do? Force land civilian planes?
Trump may find that other countries have more of a hand to play and will play their hand much better than expected.
Richard is taking him at his word.
Most commentators — imply ‘its not going to be that bad’. Despite the extremeists, conspiracy theorists, and zionist fanatics (Rubio – ‘there are no palestinians’ only ‘arabs’) that he has brought into government – and that ‘he wants the nobel peace prize’.????
World leaders a running up to be petted by him (Lammy’s interview this morning).
The ‘ordinary people’ who voted for him, had seen real reductions in their incomes over 10 years wanted something different – and the only option was Trump. Maybe thats how fascism comes – but they think hes going to make their lives better – bring down costs of energy, lower their taxes, provide more jobs etc – . When that doesnt happen …. and he comes up against the internal contradicitons Richard has pointed out – the undocumented millions without whom the everyday lives of millions will be disrupted – I think he wont go through – but just expel some – and claim he’s delivering.
‘May you live in interesting times’?
George Monbiot – has interesting take on this
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jan/19/donald-trump-elon-musk-class-war-uk-us-oligarchies-democracy
Agreed
How do the authorities identify undocumented people?
Presumably the comfortably off/wealthy who use their services in and around their properties, gardeners, cleaners, housekeepers, tutors, etc., aren’t going to be turning them in.
Is it a case of people clyping on each other?
They raid properties where it is known people are living but there are no apparent recorded residents
I can’t see him managing to deport anything like 11 million people.
That’s going to be costly in time and money. It will put an intolerable strain on police forces, migration officials and ancillary personnel and blow his budget reduction plans.
But he might try
According to Reuters, the official said Trump will also:
Direct the military to prioritize the US border and territorial integrity
End the “catch and release” policy
Move to end birthright citizenship
End asylum and close the border to immigrants entering illegally
Reinstate “remain in Mexico” policy and building the border wall
10 executive orders on the border to be issued on Monday
Sign an executive order declaring a national energy emergency
Sign a memorandum on inflation which envisions an ‘all of government response’ to inflation
Sign an executive order saying that US policy will recognize two sexes: male and female
Will ensure official government documents, such as passports and visas, reflect sex accurately
Establish Department of Government Efficiency (Doge)
Restore death penalty in public safety
Has no specific target for the oil price
Sign an executive order ending federal government DEI programs
Will suspend refugee resettlement for at least four months
Will put an end to the electric vehicle mandate
Designate criminal cartels as global terrorists
The carnage begins
Maybe the “migrants “ will be rounded up at gunpoint, put onto cattle trucks in big long trains and taken to “holding camps” before they are “ released” over the border…… if that sounds familiar I’d watch very carefully.
After all Muxk was giving very suspicious salutes after his speech today …..find it on YouTube if you don’t believe me!!
he hasn’t finished and I have ticked off about eight.
Well, he seems to be keeping his election promises.
Oh, he’s just ended ‘censorship.’ Bet that doesn’t include commenting on him.
By now you should have worked out Trump’s chief modus operandum. Distraction via division. That you haven’t & think him a fool is a testimony to his ‘genius’. Passing laws that are impossible not to break is a basic rule from the authoritarian playbook. It’s one way of disposing of people you don’t like & controlling those who don’t need you but who are useful. Don’t forget who mentored him, Roy Cohn, Joe McCarthy’s attack dog. ‘Illegal immigrants’ will become the new Jews, commies & queers: Trump’s cronies will be able to keep their ‘illegal’ gardeners, tutors, chauffeurs as long as they keep in line. The rest of the population will keep their heads down lest they be found to harbouring said undesirables. If the billionaire class has bent the knee already, it won’t take much to the cow the rest of the population, especially when half of them are already heading towards the other half with their pitchforks & flaming torches. Chaos & violence won’t be the consequence of Trump’s ‘incompetence’, but of his will. It will keep us distracted clutching our pearls while he builds his empire & dynasty…
Weird
Have you not noticed I gave written an our distraction this morning?
It’s strange to be accused of not doing what you’ve done.
I was addressing your specific suggestion that Trump ‘doesn’t know what he’s doing’. I think that he does. You describe the chaos his policies will cause. He knows this. That’s the distraction. He wants that to be our focus. That’s when he takes control. As he has for his whole career. He is where he is because his opponents have continually dismissed him as stupid, incompetent & some kind of idiot. He may be all of those things or none of them, but however you define the word it’s also true that it takes some kind of genius to get where he’s got to, to run rings around our brightest & best, to a escape justice & instead attain supreme power on earth. You can get so far not knowing what you’re doing. But not that far……
Ok, we agree
But I did refer to that idea this morning, quite explicitly.