I admit that quite a number of people have written to me over the last few days urging me to slow down and take a rest. Over the last fortnight, since Rishi Sunak's disastrous budget performance on 11 March I have felt unable to do that. The crisis we are facing compelled me to write even though I am sure I have had coronavirus during this period.
Things have now changed. I suspect we have heard the last of new measures for the moment. The focus will now turn to the NHS and care for those who are ill, and those who will grieve as a result of losing loved ones. I have massive personal empathy for everyone in that situation, but it is not the subject of this blog.
So, I might take note of the requests that have been for the next few days. I am not saying I will not blog. I am not good at completely stopping. Asking me not to write is like asking me not to breathe. But I intend to slow down, a lot. And I will only moderate occasionally, whilst to be blunt, I will simply be deleting those who come here for a fight: I have not got the energy for that right now.
I will not stop thinking of course: even if I do other activities I never seem able to turn my brain off. But my focus is now on the PCC: the Post-Coronavirus Consensus. This will take some time away from immediate issues to develop thoughts upon. I'll be sharing them here as they emerge, I promise you, but maybe not this weekend.
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Also feel I’ve had the coronavirus, but didn’t hit me that hard. Fatigue is the worst effect here. Need the antibody test to be sure.
I’m a layperson with a smattering of economic knowledge, picked up from various sources over the years, and I’m developing my own ideas and understanding .. I have learned so much from your posts and have followed your blog for years and now the podcasts..
Thanks for everything you do and have a good rest Richard!
Thanks
The fatigue is real – going for a rest now….
And that’s not just because I am 62
It’s hard giving a damn these days.
The balance between rest and energy is a tough one to manage but not impossible. You’re wise to conserve your energies however for the PCC. In fact we all are. It could very well be a major battle ground coming out of this.
See if you can spend a day or two getting family cuddles and spending some time with (I imagine) your extensive railway book collection.
🙂
Only 1,000 books on railway history in this house…….
Built up over nearly 50 years
bet your fun to have a pint with
Wishing you and yours all the best. Stay active, walking the dog, or whatever suits, if you can.
Congratulations Richard a wise and sensible choice. Its a marathon not a race. Get better we need you.
Look forward to hearing about PCC very much
Meanwhile, recharge those batteries – whatever works for you
Post crisis, ( assuming some degree of normality returns)
The current policies are a truly massive transfer wealth to Rentiers, and liabilities to the poor and the state.
This is the recipe for revolution!
“The current policies are a truly massive transfer wealth to Rentiers, and liabilities to the poor and the state”
Think we are in the process of monetising deficits, it’s the end of austerity. Rental agreements, certainly in the corporate world are being torn up and negotiated down, often significantly. That pressure will come to bear in residential also. Also, the crash in asset prices is a pretty instant way to reduce wealth inequality. Often this is bought on leverage or margin so paper fortunes have gone up in smoke… I don’t get your point..
Explanation ( not my core skill)
Looking at the revenue side:
Productivity has dropped massively, Rents have stayed the same.
Everyone, apart from the asset owner, has taken a hit.
Much of the cash the government is putting in is, eventually, going to the Rentiers.
( e.g. Phone, car and home rents )
Looking at the Capital side. Physical capital asset values have stood up much better than paper assets, even oil! Therefore people will value these assets over ones that are less stable.
(This isn’t to say values in individual asset sectors will not reflect changes in demand)
( I’m old fashioned, If I start with a farm that produces 5 tonnes of wheat per acre a year, and end with the same, My asset is the same, whether it is marketable at £1000 an acre or £100000 an acre, Its the value of the £ that changed)
If Captain Sensible (who has perchance masqueraded as his fellow Damned member Dave Vanian, among other punk artists here before) is taking the piss, he might care to note that the actual Captain Sensible is a noted (and admitted…) railway enthusiast.
Richard would no doubt have an interesting conversation with Raymond Burns, over a beer or two.
And as a railway enthusiast myself, I scorn your scorn.
🙂
Thank you for your blogging. I can’t remember how I came across your blog, but I check it out every day since I found it! Even though I’m pretty clueless about money and the theories surrounding it. You have given me a lot of things to think about!
Wishing you a speedy recovery and a very good rest with as much fun as you can manage. Your railway books sound like a wonderful way to while away the hours! I hope your fatigue passes soon – as an ME/CFS patient I have some concept about how hard fatigue can hit. I think for convalescence Aggressive Rest Therapy is something that is useful!
Best wishes to you and your family.
Thanks
Thanks for all your work and effort, it is of great support during these troubling times and hugely appreciated.
You are right on point with the ‘PCC’ as the mainstream media are already attributing every possible failing to the virus (political, economic, social and everything else besides). We have witnessed their destruction of Jeremy Corbyn’s attempt to bring a much needed political transformation and brought about a change in the Labour leadership that was not necessarily in the interest of the people. Let them not use this catastrophe to bring about further changes to our freedom and liberty.
If you haven’t already, do have a listen to the knowledgeable Dr John Campbell
https://m.youtube.com/user/Campbellteaching/videos
Best wishes and a swift recovery to you.
Thanks
Please do take it easy and recuperate.
260 deaths yesterday, 181 the day before, and 103 on Thursday. This is what exponential looks like, increasing by about a third a day and doubling every three. It could be well over a thousand a day by next weekend, if social distancing is not working well enough, and we will need more time to say for sure.
I fear this is still going to get significantly worse before it gets any better (and I dread to think about the US). Let’s hope our government don’t feel the need to use too many of the sweeping powers available under their new enabling act. But if it carries on increasing like this, they will feel forced to ratchet up the countermeasures.
By next week it will be not much short of 2,000 a day at this rate
Lock down is unlikely to have any impact for another two weeks at least, and maybe longer
In two weeks time at this rate deaths might be over 10,000 a day – but as there are no ventilators, maybe worse.
In the following week they could exceed that.
This nightmare has not unfolded by a long way, as yet
The maths is not that difficult but sadly it seems to be beyond too many of those in power, let alone the general public. Most people really do not understand what exponential means, which is as you say Richard, potentially 1,000s of deaths per day. Then factor in the point where the NHS just runs out of ventilators and staff when it will turn even more sharply upwards (non-linearities anyone? Even less well understood).
Its not something I share with many of my family or friends – the potential figures are just too shocking. One could also calculate:
– additional deaths caused by delaying the start of lockdown and isolation
– additional deaths caused by the lack of staff and equipment
I trust that will be the subject of the enquiry that should follow. One can only hope that certain people will be held very firmly to account for the consequences of their actions, and inactions
My partner in Tax Research LLP – and right now a quite regular contributor of data and comment – is my wife, who is a GP retired on health grounds and certainly unable to return to work
She does this data regularly – and monitors all this stuff – and it’s really quite frightening how little awareness of where this could and probably will go as yet, even with our half-hearted social isolation in place
So I agree with you Robin
Even if they found the new ventilators – there are 43,000 nurse and 10,000 doctgor unfilled NHS vacancies – and ventilators require “highly trained staff to operate them.” :
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/mar/15/coronavirus-uk-manufacturers-urged-to-consider-switching-to-making-ventilators
If only the government had heeded the warnings of Operation Cygnus
[Paywall] https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nhs-fails-to-cope-with-bodies-in-flu-pandemic-test-8pnmdpdfx
“My partner in Tax Research LLP — and right now a quite regular contributor of data and comment — is my wife”
It’s wonderful you are back together!!!
We’re still married
We talk
We don’t live together
Richard
Could you provide some further information on what the Post-Coronavirus Consensus is, with whom etc. I can’t find any similar thing online.
Thanks
I’m working in it!
I think I made the term up….