I have scanned the changes to Theresa May's Brexit deal that now make up Johnson's deal. There are sixty plus pages of them; many being in Annex 2 which lists all the EU laws that will still apply in Northern Ireland. There are 33 pages of these. Of course, that is not all EU law: but regarding trade it would certainly appear to be much of it, covering an enormous range of issues where EU standards will still apply in Northern Ireland.
And although the deal says that Northern Ireland is in the UK customs zone that is pure fantasy: Northern Ireland will exist in a purdah like location, clearly on the route to hell, where it is the customs rules to be applied will be arbitrary, with a default being that goods from the UK will be treated as if exported to the EU unless very strong evidence that they will not be can be supplied. Good luck with that one.
And even Republic of Ireland VAT law might apply.
That barrier down the Irish Sea is going to be pretty dramatic: and the red tape surrounding it will be draconian to a degree that will make those trading the Dover-Calais route think that they are relatively well off (and I promise you, they won't be).
Does this deal look like the result of furious political wheeler-dealing that has no relationship to reality? Yes, it does.
Can these arrangements possibly work, be regulated, or be sustainable? There is not a hope of that.
Will the people of Northern Ireland pay a significant price for this? I fear they will: being in limbo has to be paid for and the price, in this case, will be tariffs. When the default is that many goods will have to have tariffs applied because it cannot be proven that they will not go into the Republic there is bound to be an economic knock-on effect in the North.
Is massive evasion likely? I think we all know the answer to that.
Does this have to be the precursor for a united Ireland? I can see no way around it.
And what is in it for the UK? The right to make trade deals with countries who will look at the conditions applying to the Northern Ireland part of the arrangement and walk a mile from negotiating anything.
No one in their right minds would sign this.
I have a horrible feeling parliament will sign it.
The EU knows that the mayhem is all on our side. I have to say that their weariness shows.
But for me, Johnson dying in a ditch (politically, of course) would be a vastly better outcome.
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I for one cannot believe that the EU would agree to this. It seems to me that those of us who want to remain are not being considered by Barnier even though the EU has talked about its responsibilities us as EU citizens.
I can’t really blame them – as Juncker said, he understands English, but not ‘The English’. And after all, the EU is a treaty that leaves delivery of policy to the nation states that are its members.
I have strange visions of a flotilla of boats sailing over the channel towards Calais and Eurostars full of Remain Refugees spilling out their human cargo at Gare du Nord. Or how about Waverley in Edinburgh or the Moray Firth?
One thing is for sure: I would not go to Ireland whilst they too have a conservative Government that has an austerity infatuation and or any Government whom propped up their private banks first and left its people to flounder after 2008. I have relations in Southern Ireland and I have first hand accounts of the hardship.
And don’t think that just because Varadkar is gay and from immigrant stock and that abortion has been legalised that Ireland has turned into a land of liberal milk and honey overnight. Far from it in fact. As a chap in Geeva, Sligo once told me over a pint of Guinness and a shared pack of Taytos – if it wasn’t for EU money Eire would be shite because it was cerftainly shite before it joined the EU.
Thanks for nothing Leo!
Pilgrim Slight Return says:
“Thanks for nothing Leo!”
Leo isn’t responsible for your welfare, Pilgrim, or mine; he’s got his own country’s welfare to consider. If we don’t like it, that’s just tough. He’s in defensive mode against the external assault of Brexit madness and doing what he thinks best for Ireland.
Naturally, he may well be wrong. At present I’d rather be riding the ship he’s steering than one steered by Boris Cummings.
Really Andy?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/02/dublin-booming-rich-city-housing-crisis-rent-inequality
Fine Gael remain a problem for the Irish economy and the Irish people. You can have all the abortions, gay rights, civil unions you want but if you still believe in supping from the same came cup as the other Neo-liberals then what is the point?
Sound economics is fundamental to people’s quality off life. I don’t see it Andy – not in Eire. There is no imagination with fiscal or macro policy because of sheer short sightedness and an over emphasis on supporting business. They’re even talking of selling off state assets to pay for a boost in other service areas? What sort of plan is that?
Count me out.
All I saw in Ireland recently was an Irish Conservative supporting a British one.
@Pilgrim
“Fine Gael remain a problem for the Irish economy and the Irish people.”
Not much better than the prevailing political/economic climate in England, then. But Ireland is smaller, and probably more easily fixed. I’m thankful that I don’t have to choose to live in either.
I’ve been trying to immunise my brain against the relentless and debilitating Brexit debate, not least because there’s precious little (like zero) I can do personally to ensure my preferred outcome. But thank you so much for your ongoing forensic analysis which is my information benchmark. I don’t know whence you find the energy – not just to dissect and comment rationally upon the 24/7 news, but also to deal so respectfully with the nasty, embittered trolls who seem to have infected your blog of late. You have a great deal more patience than me.
Anyhow, that aside, there’s just one general comment I’ll make which rarely gets an MSM mention and which provides the prism through which the past 3 1/2 years should be viewed and the public reminded of. This entire monumental clusterfuck that has been so politically and socially damaging to the UK is the sole work of several dishonest and incompetent Conservative administrations. They and only they should carry the responsibility for whatever longer-term damage ‘Brexit’ will have on our communities. And yet …. another Tory GE victory is definitely on the cards. It’s truly Alice Through the Looking Glass Land. I give up, truly.
I have that feeling on occasion…
I may need good coffee this afternoon
“And yet …. another Tory GE victory is definitely on the cards. It’s truly Alice Through the Looking Glass Land. I give up, truly.”
John, let me explain English politics. It’s called the moron factor. It has 3 parts.
1) An electorate where, as Richard previously noted, around 1/3rd will vote for the Tories, whatever disasters they bring about, because they are morons. In some areas of England, if the local Tory MP had pregnant women tied to lamposts and bayoneted, they’d still get voted in. The tory voters would say ‘its their fault for getting pregnant so they couldn’t run away fast enough’ I realise this comment is in slightly poor taste, but you take my point?
2) The moronic FPTP voting system which allows the above mentioned party to get a Parliamentary majority with far less than a majority of the votes cast. Because in many constituencies, the non Tory vote is greater than the Tory vote, but split between the Lib Dems and Labour. And that brings me to point 3…..
3) The moronic opposition. Firstly, Labour has not only refused to get rid of FPTP when it had 13 years to do so from 1997 to 2010, it now has a leader who is firmly wedded to FPTP despite it’s grossly unfair outcomes noted above. A leader who has also, by his total lack of leadership in opposing Brexit, has haemorraghed support to the Lib Dems so that come the next GE, we’re straight back to 2) above….just like the 1980s. Corbyn and the rest of the hard left have apparently learnt nothing in the last 30 years.
The Lib Dems should also share some blame for this, to be fair. They should have made a change to PR a binding commitment before entering into the 2010-2015 coalition, instead of letting the Tories put it to a referendum.
Moronic, isn’t it?
🙂
I too can get really angry with my fellow Englishmen as those who have seen my past contributions will no doubt agree.
But I say again that we/they are constantly manipulated by a Tory friendly media and market system that is aligned with and underpins Tory values.
Being a Tory is part of being an ‘aspirational’ society – where everyone buys what fits their image of being successful and ‘going place’s’. Too many of us want to look like the Tories and their supporters – permanent suntans, exotic holidays, private education, the Audi on a car loan. The Tories are associated with winners – not the losers that Labour talks about. That is why – no one really wants to be associated with ‘losers’ like those who are on benefits or who work in the public sector.
I don’t blame the ordinary voter.
SOTD and John D are close but my vote for the reason why we are here is solely the stupidity of our two principal opposition parties. The fact that someone as moral and sensible as Caroline Flint is left isolated by people like Jo Swinson (should she be called ‘Swing-some’ because that is the only reason for any Lib-Dem revival) and Corbyn’s Labour.
Labour are so incensed by Corbyn’s appointment that they have forgotten what they are here for. They have also ignored a golden rule – stick together – the united front. Too many in Labour just want to chase swing voters by aping Tories – like Chukka for example.
Labour has also been undermined by anti-Semitism. Identity politics is now so strong, Jewish Labour politicians put their Jewish concerns first before those of the country which they seem to forget has been suffering from some of the cruellest austerity in recent memory. I’m really sorry but Jeremy Corbyn’s plans for Britain do not involve Jewish extermination camps, a British SA or a version of Kristal Nacht. But we do hear some from Jewish community speaking in those terms and it is ludicrous. ‘Existential threat’ – bollocks!
Where is the opposition’s focus? It’s still on internal matters – and BREXIT. Labour party MPs voting for a leave deal do so because they don’t want to lose £80K plus expenses a year if they go against their voters if they voted Leave. Young Kinnock Junior thinks that he is in Parliament to do the voters bidding!! So Corbyn has to try and accommodate people like him by being as non-committal as he can to keep what is left of his party together. Result – Labour looks too opaque.
The identity politics issue can also be seen in the issues over BREXIT too. We are all now either Leavers or Remainers – including the MPs. I hate Steve Baker and people like Mark Francois, Rees-Mogg with a passion but I also understand why they can develop such contempt for Parliament – because too many MPs have simply not worked together and refuse to because they have issues with each other. They forget that politics is about solving problems – not exacerbating them.
Too many of the our politicians also suffer from another affliction: ignorance. Look at MMT and macro economics and the short shrift that gets. And whilst they all get £80K a year, the rest of us struggle on.
No – I can forgive the voter. Because the buck stops with politics and politicians.
They have failed us.
They will fail us on top of that.
Politics in this country is broken. It’s not the country that is broken – its them – in Westminster.
But it is us – Remainers and Leavers who will suffer the most. The suffering will at least give us something in common at last.
We’ll have to disagree on Caroline Flint – who is one of the least principled people I am now aware of
OMG Sorry Richard – I meant Caroline Lucas – not Flint.
That’s what happens when I try to be coherent after a day at work!! Sorry.
🙂
Surely the Conservative Unionist Party is a misnomer. Conservativism means the maintenance of the status quo, Unionism means the retention of our current relationship with Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. Brexit destroys this in that it propels these individual parts of this ‘septic isle’ to pursue their own self interest to the detriment of the whole thus making the Tories, maybe, liable to prosecution under the Trades ‘Description act had they been a company, Oops, I forgot that the Brexit party is registered as such.
This is a sad day indeed if we believe that our best interests are served by going it alone rather than being part of a club that can exert influence around the world. Our empire exists no more, accept it and realise that our future lies with those of like minded views and aspirations.
Paul Mayor says:
“Surely the Conservative Unionist Party is a misnomer. ”
What we have seen, though, is the resurgence of ‘One Nation Conservatism’, but reincarnated as the one nation being Lesser England.
Very lesser England, because there seems to be scant regard for the Midlands and North. Wales seems to be classified as north and godnoes where Devon and Cornwall are on the Tory central office wall map.
Well, at least the EU Council of Ministers seems to have awoken and are prepared to offer an extension if it goes to shit domestically.
The EU should have done this much sooner in my view.
This latest so-called “deal” has about as much connection to reality as plans to build a bridge from Scotland to Northern Ireland, and (I think and hope) about as much chance of success.