The local election results in England and national government elections in Wales and Scotland may prove to be among the most historically significant political events of modern times.
In this video, I argue that Britain's traditional two-party system is collapsing, nationalism is reshaping every nation within the UK, and the constitutional settlement holding the union together is now under unprecedented strain.
Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are all now led by parties questioning rule from Westminster.
At the same time, England itself is deeply divided over its identity, as Reform keeps alive the divisions created by Brexit, raising further questions about its future direction.
The question now confronting the UK is, in that case, existential. What is the nation now for, and does it still represent a shared future for the four countries that make it up?
And might it be that each of those countries would now be better off on their own, pursuing a politics of care and the economics of hope, based on redistribution, inclusion, electoral reform, and rebuilding social solidarity within their own national frameworks?
[Please note that I apologise for the quality of the sound on this video: I had to record it as an audio-only version because of time pressure, and it turned out I did so in a slight echo chamber. It's OK, but we will learn from that.]
This is the audio version:
This is the transcript:
I think it is going to be very hard to, when we look back, overstate the significance of the elections that have happened across the UK this week. They have been, in every sense, historic for the changes in perception they create about the way in which the UK is governed, the way in which its political direction is moving, and the way in which the nation states that make up the UK even want to think about their futures. This is a seismic change in our political landscape, and we need to talk about that.
It would be incredibly easy to discuss these results in the context of short-term electoral positioning. It's obvious that, for example, the two-party electoral system in the UK that was dominated for a century by Labour and the Conservatives is now history. They are no longer winning popular support, and that is seen in their results. Labour and the Conservatives are both going to become residual parties at the next general election with no part to play in power. I cannot imagine either leading a government again in my lifetime, so great is the change that we are seeing, but that in itself is not enough to make this a historic event.
Nigel Farage did, and again, we need to note this, have a good night. But the deeper question is what the electorate in the UK now believes, and that is much more important than considering what any one political party has got to say at this moment about the results or where we might be going as a consequence.
These elections have revealed profound fractures within the UK, and I do mean deeply profound. These aren't just minor changes that we are seeing here. We are seeing seismic differences.
The UK now looks like a country falling apart. The constitutional settlement that has held it in place for centuries is no longer stable. Scotland is moving again towards the SNP. The idea that it might not now appears to be a blip, and Scotland is going to be governed by a pro-independence party yet again, its fifth in a row, and that indicates that Scotland is minded to leave the UK. When even Shetland, one of the strongholds holding out against the SNP, has now voted to send an SNP MSP to Holyrood, you know that something big is happening.
And that is also the case in Wales. Plaid Cymru is heading for a breakthrough result. They look as though they might well lead the next government and administration in Wales. Labour is being consigned to history after a century of power in that country, and the consequence is that Scotland and Wales are now centring their debates about their political futures on the future of our union itself.
Add to this the fact that Northern Ireland now has a government headed by a party, Sinn Féin, that is itself committed to leaving the United Kingdom, and we are at a point in history which has never been reached before.
The fact is, we now have three of the four nations of the UK led by governments that are dedicated to ending their association with rule from London, and so by England. This is the historic nature of this moment. The fact is, we are going to be looking at something very different in the future, and it's all very well for England to pretend otherwise, but this is unsustainable, and anyone with any sense can see it.
There is another point to make as well, and that is that there is a nationalist instinct going on inside England at present alongside that seen in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. Reform is, after all, a UK nationalist party. I stress UK, I do not believe it wants to break up the union, although it has hinted that it might do so to try to win support in Scotland. I think that's a sham, and the fact is that UK independence is the basis of the appeal of Reform.
Let's not forget that Nigel Farage is on his third political party. The first was UKIP; the second was the Brexit Party, which succeeded in helping take us out of the European Union; and Reform is his third. That implies that the supporters of Reform are like the supporters of the SNP and Greens in Scotland, and Plaid Cymru in Wales, and Sinn Féin in Northern Ireland, also unsure about the future identity of the country of which they are a part. And this divide is very clear in this election.
You can look at there being a left-right divide, a wealth divide and other divisions which have driven the growth of Reform in some parts of England in particular, but not in others, but when you look at which parts of the country voted for Brexit, and which did not, you'll see the dividing line between those parts of the country that have now voted for Reform and those which have voted for Liberal Democrats or Greens as an alternative to the Conservatives and Labour.
So, what does this say? It says that England is no more settled as to its future than is Wales, or Scotland, or Northern Ireland. The fact is, this is also a country that is riven by division about what its identity really is. And as long as Nigel Farage remains in charge of Reform, and that is not a given because he has always walked away from the prospect of power before now, and I do not rule out that he will do so again, because this is a man terrified of power, terrified of accountability, and terrified of losing the income that would go with assuming responsibility, then there will be the chance that Reform will also seek to divide the UK, albeit on different lines to those which the national parties in Scotland, and Wales and Northern Ireland would seek to do.
We are, though, at this strange point where simultaneously, the two-party system and first-past-the-post democracy have clearly failed across the UK as a whole and particularly in England, but we have the problem that the whole of the United Kingdom is asking what is fundamentally an existential question. And that existential question is:
- Who are we?
- What do we want to be?
- Where do we want to go?
- Who do we want to go with?
- Are we better together?
- Will we be apart?
- Will we be in the European Union or not?
- Will we have the pound, the Euro, or some other currency of our own creation?
- And a whole range of other issues as well.
The problem is, at this moment, there is no coherent vision of what happens next. The question is clearly on the table; the question has to be resolved. Is there a United Kingdom, or is there not? And is there a vision of what England is, or is there not? But no one seems to be able to answer that. We have no giant towering political figure who can answer this question in any meaningful way.
In Scotland, the SNP leadership has for a long time ducked the whole issue of independence and how they will develop a pathway to it and have instead said that they would use, for example, the pound as their currency, shackling them to England for an eternity as a consequence. And in Wales, Plaid Cymru has said, even if it does form the next administration in that country, it will not be talking about an independence referendum. This issue is not then on its current agenda, although it is on that of Sinn Fein, and let's be clear, that is where the first break is likely to happen because in Ireland as a whole, there is now evidence that maybe 60% of the population are looking forward to the existence of a unified Ireland within the European Union, and I think that would suit the majority in Northern Ireland now very well.
But in England, there is no answer to that question. Farage certainly can't answer it, and the Tories and Labour are left on the sidelines answering no question known to anyone. The fact is, this is a true existential crisis, and no one is addressing it.
So let me do so. I believe that each of these countries is able to stand on its own two feet. Each of them is able to be an independent country, either within or without the European Union, but I suspect that Ireland, Wales, and Scotland would all wish to be within, whilst not being in membership of the Euro, and anyway, they have to have their own independent currencies before they can even consider becoming members of the Euro, so that question does not arise at present.
And I believe that each of them could deliver the politics that the people of those countries want, as I believe the Greens and others, if they so wished, could deliver the politics that the people of England want, most especially those who are now feeling extremely alienated and who are, as a consequence, lending their support to Reform as a result.
What is that politics? It is, of course, what I call the ‘Politics of Care'; a politics that treats everyone as being important.
A politics that deliberately sets out to leave no one behind.
A politics that refuses to accept the fact that across the UK as a whole, right now, 14 million people, and maybe 4 million children, are living in poverty, which is utterly unacceptable.
A politics that would be based upon ensuring that no region would be left behind, and that services provided by the state would be sufficient for everyone to live a meaningful life where capabilities are fulfilled.
That is what a politics of care is all about. That is what each of these countries could set out to deliver.
It would demand sacrifices by some. In particular, there would have to be redistribution of income, wealth, and power, and the last is the one that nobody talks about, but is essential, which is why electoral reform has to be on the agenda, as well as those other issues.
And at that point, it would be possible to put in place policies that would negate the appeal of parties like Reform and would put in place, instead, the politics of care and the economics of hope that would deliver the type of unity which no other party is at present capable of delivering because they have not embraced these ideas.
There is then a possibility of creating a politics that can deliver the answer to the questions that each of these countries is now posing about their future and to their viability and to their potential unity around new themes of common identity, which would, as a consequence, heal the divisions within our societies.
That is what I'm looking for.
That is what I am hoping to achieve.
That is what the purpose of this channel is, and I believe that stressful as these election results are because of the divisions that they expose within our country, they do also lay the foundations for change, and those foundations will become the basis for a better country, wherever you might live and wherever you have your aspirations, which aspirations will be fulfilled if we adopt a politics of care.
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“what the electorate in the UK now believes”.. Monbiot did an interesting article in the Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/may/07/technique-heal-britain-division-hard-right-radical-listening-constituency-volunteers
The main point was that most citizens tend to support policies that are “left-wing” compared to the parties they support (or say they support).
The divisions in the UK are partly a consequence of the UK’s de-industrialisation and a quasi-total failure (by gov) to address the outcomes (ref Welsh valleys, North East & West England, Scotland’s ex-industrial belt). (non)Actions then give space for liars and chancers (Deform) plus others with agendas (B.Liar & his tribe, Cam-moron & his tribe, McSweeney et al). The current crop are so utterly useless they can’t even fix ………potholes – which just needs money (which the imbeciles in the “Treasury” won’t release – perhaps they think “markets” will fix it), or shit in rivers (money & nationalisation), or….. Books have been written on the centralisation of the UK state (also happened in France btw) & the castration of local gov. The election results yesterday are one outcome of that trend, plus numerous other problems too many to list. Deform is a symptom of a failing over centralised government, which is not governing in the interests of most of the population & for 40+ years never has.
I don’t know what will happen next, or how it will happen, but I can guarantee one thing. Despite a thumping pro-independence majority, and the SNP having more MSPs than the four Unionist parties put together, the pomposity, arrogance and intransigence of Westminster will only get worse.
Until you recognise that the electoral success of Reform is because of the successive Govts failure to tackle immigration any analysis you undertake is fundamentally flawed.
That is far too narrow an interpretation. Almost ludicrously so. And it assumes all Refirm supporters are racist. Some are, but not all. So why do you want to do that?
Puzzled as legal immigration has fallen significantly since post Brexit high in 2o23 travel is to net zero.
The issue is collapsing standards of living despite falling immigration. If immigration were the root cause then standards of living should rise when immigration falls, surely?
I can’t see how the UK can survive. It’s talked of as a union by many in England but not viewed that way by those with their own strong cultural and national identity they isn’t English. Many of the arguments for staying in the union have been economic, but Brexit has destroyed these as Northern Ireland now benefits from access to the EU single market in the way the rest of the UK don’t and it’s clear life would be much simpler if it reunified with Ireland. Scotland has been taken out of the UK against it’s will with economic consequences. Wales technically voted for Brexit, although I’ve heard it said that many Brexit voters were in fact English settlers in Pembrokeshire. Either way the economic consequences have not been good.
As someone now living in the South West, I would argue the UK government is far too centralised and the policies Westminster centric with too little self determination for the regions outside the South East. Why should the South West get so little infrastructure spending? The cynical me would say there are few Labour votes to be won here and it’s seen as irrelevant by those living in London. We need more decentralised government and the devolved nations are more able to determine this together with a cohesive cultural identity around which to coalesce. Andy Burnham has shown what can be done when a politician champions a region even with fairly limited financial resources and power. Our country would be better with people like him and Jamie Driscoll leading regions and Westminster sticking to national issues.
“Scotland has been taken out of the UK against it’s will with economic consequences”
I presume you mean the EU.
Of course I did.
The “UK” has always been ruled by England. I think Farage is conflicted; he doesn’t advocate independence because he, and his supporters, see the other nations as colonies of England anyway. As a Scots-born resident of England it is still surprising how often I have to correct my friends when they refer to Britain as England. Think of when that plucky Scot, Andy Murray, became “British”. Or think how many medals “England” won at the Olympic Games. These are trivial examples, but they represent how ingrained the idea of English superiority is – it’s natural. When you dig a bit deeper, you find that England, too, is disunited – as shown by your point about Brexit and by the way Reform performed in different parts of England. Our only hope, together or apart, is that some coherent alternative to the neoliberalism we have suffered under can gain traction in these chaotic political times. But people prefer simpler answers (which are not answers at all, of course). And voting reform is a must. Politics of Care anyone?
(England only) Living in an area of multiple deprivation since retiring here, I find the political scene v depressing, especially the analysis in MSM and the responses of political leaders. See this by Starmer https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/may/08/election-results-left-right-uk-keir-starmer – the usual vacuous word soup, completely free of any specfic proposals.
46 years of Neoliberalism has produced grossly obscene and rising levels of inequality. Brexit has made that worse, especially in the areas that voted for it. Housing, health, social care, and below-poverty-level social security provision, alongside all the other effects of austerity on SMEs, local and national services (transport, utilities, education) plus the cost of living crisis have made things intolerable.
The fascists have lied to people that the problems are caused by immigration, and an over-sized over-generous welfare state. They have, with the help of social media, done that extremely effectively and corruptly, backed by foreign donors.
The STP, latterly Labour, instead of addressing the real deprivation issues (by investing in services especially housing) have reacted to Reform’ anti-immigration diagnosis by unleashing Priti Patel, Sue Ellen Bravermann, and Shabana Mahmoud – who have stoked divisions, validated Reform’s position and built hardly a single council house.
“Should Labour track right, track left?” say the pundits, missing the point entirely, just like Starmer does above.
The one bright spot was that Reform got control of Hartlepool, Sunderland, and Newcastle-under-Lyme, which will give voters in those areas a chance to see the fascist grifters trying to run a council and failing miserably as they are told by Reform to “f****ng suck it up”.
May I suggest…………
Firstly there is nothing to stop a party deciding that
1. The Union is important, and
2. Looking for a new constitutional settlement that keeps it together.
So far nobody has done it but it could happen
Secondly Polanski and the Greens are getting the full force of media fury. The fear of a good example I suggest not though that the Party does not have its issues. But (insert profanity) we have a party led by someone who is clearly making a personal fortune from donors and a lot of the money coming from abroad and taking no responsibility fir anything. He’s quite frankly a security risk if nothing else – and not the only one either but why are the Media nt asking questions? Where are all those keyboard warriors? If we ever needed James Bond then now is the time.
“I believe the Greens and others, if they so wished, could deliver the politics that the people of England want”.
I see, in England, less of a unifying force necessary to overcome the extreme self-interest that has been at the heart of post-mid 1970s politics. Hence I question England’s ability to deliver the “redistribution of income, wealth, and power” that you claim, and I believe, to be a prerequisite for a politics of care.
I see a break up of the UK and continued fragmentation and decline within England. Increasing isolation and inequality, failure to invest in common wealths like education, health, transport, sanitation. Maybe just defence and policing.
A map of the world’s Gini index shows where England will end up without an ability to connect with itself.
In the short term there’s money to be made in building closed community housing, barricades and private security firms. As an example, S.Africa is not a good place to live in such isolation despite it’s strategic position, bounty and beauty.
What is the cause of the limitation
I see little that unites the highly unequal and disparate parts of England – other than an extreme self-interest. There is much more support for progressive policies in S&W, than there is in prosperous or poor areas of England. Where many may see a caring politics as a solution or way forward in S&W, it seems that this could be too difficult a task in E. I don’t see much common ground between reform voters in the leafy shires and Middlesborough. Rats in a sack.— and so it could easily lead to more fragmentation into ever smaller segments of ‘them’ and a competition to reduce the role of government and taxes.
Richard, amongst numerous other points that you make, I also agree with your identification that England is suffering a loss of identity, no doubt due to the loss of international status of England and the UK, but also, as many living in Scotland, Wales and N. Ireland will be aware, a confusion in England over the actual difference in meaning between the two terms ‘England’ and the ‘United Kingdom’. You can’t get more basic than that.
I live in Scotland, and it’s noticeable from here that although there is a Scottish, Welsh and N. Ireland Parliament, there is no English Parliament – which might perhaps be a surprise to many in England. Westminster, which should be a federal government for the UK, is not, and doubles instead as the English seat of Parliament.
This also means that there is no devolved power in England, and so the first past the post system of voting remains historically in place instead of proportional representation being introduced.
Although ironically, the voice of English concerns and interests dominates all others in the UK, it isn’t sufficiently rooted in locality in England, due to the lack of an English political structure, to create a real sense of identity and instead, fosters a bewildering sense of powerlessness in those living in England, which supports the rise of extreme right wing parties.
Much to agree with
Yes, well observed Westminster has always been a power base for elites, it’s just reverting to type.
As a Scot living in England I make a similar point, asking where is your equivalent devolved power for Education, Health etc.
Having PR and more devolved power would weaken elites’ Westminster, hence their resistance.
And reminding people there are no academies or EHCPs in Scotland (funding and support is distributed without administrative costs of EHCP) shows things can be done differently when power is devolved from multi millionaire Westminster.
I took a sharp intake of breath reading the post above.
All I would advise is something that I have observed to be true since coming to this blog and why it is the only blog I comment on. THE problem in this septic isle is not a lack of English identity (Brummies, Liverpudlians, Lancastrians don’t lack identity!); the problem is a lack of MONEY – funding England, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales.
Ours is one of most overly-centralized states in Europe. A state where there is a privy council where elected officials have to take a secret oath to an outdated, unelected monarch sitting at the top of an Establishment who should have had their power officially curtailed but clearly have not!
Since 1979 – if not before, the countries in this union have been subjected to what can only be described as continuous rabid austerity – the rolling back of the state evidencing this, the growth of individual wealth and unaccountability growing. Identity should of course be celebrated, through dialects, accents, food and other culture. But you strip economic sovereignty out of it with austerity, and create unmet need and identity is weaponised to be exploited by those advocating and perpetuating austerity. Richard once asked here ‘When are we going to get the money we need?’. That is STILL ‘the’ question. And perhaps the only question in my view. Lack of money creates problems – even with identities – national, racial, sexual who are reduced to making competing claims of need and exacerbating the pre-existing prejudices thereof.
Read Prof Tim Snyder’s 2024 book ‘On Freedom’ where he dissects these issues using his intimate historical knowledge of European/Soviet authoritarianism. Arm yourselves!
Ireland will be completely unified within 10 years.
Scotland and Wales need to be given complete authority with complete taxing powers in everything but the military and foreign affairs sending a portion of taxes to Westminster for the military and foreign affairs.
The counties need to become Federalized States with the power to collect and retain property taxes (get rid of the regressive council tax and institute a proper property tax fit for purpose) and a local option sales tax. How can I hold my local council responsible for decisions they make when Westminster tells them what to do and how to spend the revenues they receive???????
Are local councils anything more than a rubber stamp for and administrator of national mandates????
Please comment as “inquiring minds want to know”.
There is no viable model for Scotland and Wales as you describe
You cannot devolve all tax and not currency
And currency issuance defines a nation
And local sakes taxes cannot work here – we have VAT
We will never have a sales tax
Need to do more research. However, the current situation of Westminster making mandates on councils the have no way to fund will lead to nothing but bankruptcy of Councils?
Why may not councils retain/receive a portion of VAT taxes collected in there council area/county????
VAT cnnot be appraised by area – it is by definition a national and sometimes and international tax
An increasing number of UK councils do in fact, go “bankrupt”, and get taken over by centrally appointed government administrators, elections are often postponed, then eventually, they start again. Pop the phrase “Northamptonshire goes into administration” into a non-tech-bro search engine, for an example
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=northamptonshire+goes+into+administration&t=fpas&ia=web
and read Wikipedia’s article on Northamtonshire County Council (now split up).https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northamptonshire_County_Council
It was corrupt for years whoever ran it. Reform is now in charge locally, so more chaos lies ahead.
This is a growing trend as UK councils run out of ideas on how to make 2 and 2 add up to 10.
I have always felt that an “Independent” Wales made sense from many perspectives and so I am quite happy that Plaid Cymru are likely to lead a minority government. The lack of money is extreme in Wales both from the UK Government but also in an internal economic sense, wages, profits etc. But being able to stand up for Wales and articulate the need will in itself be a novelty.
As to a longer perspective there are many possible outcomes but one that is not mentioned is a Con-federal system since freedom of movement for work and economic links are so integrated particularly in Wales. Head of State is obviously the Archdruid!
I believe that a major tipping point for a Celtic secession is the rise of Reform in England. Clearly none of us want to be ruled by a far right government. Here a year or two ago, I made the tongue in cheek suggestion that if Scotland, Wales and NI should get together and throw England out of the U.K., Ireland might rejoin. You, quite rightly, replied that it would never happen.
Yet now, with Farage riding high, it seems that secession is closer than it ever has been before. Surely, as that independence movement matures, an alliance between at least Scotland and Wales is very likely to suit both countries. In which case the inclusion of Ireland in that group would be nothing but good sense.
Could this now be a case of many a true word spoken in jest?
There is no gain to your vision of the UK
A loose federation could work, but nothing more
And remember, Ireland has dire politics right now