There is something raw and exciting about an election night. For someone who has been an eager election result observer since the 1970 general election, which brought Ted Heath to power, that excitement never fades. On occasions, I have lived in hope. Often, I have had to take my pleasure by smiling as those justly turned out of office suffered as they tried to hide their despair at the voters' rejection of them.
That being said, and having already noted the trends developing as the English council election results are announced, let me try to stand back and appraise what these already incomplete election results in England might imply, with a particular stress upon the word might, because the results are incomplete as yet, and this was, of course, not a general election, and local council results do not necessarily reflect what might happen if the level of turnout seen in those polls were to be repeated.
As opinion polls forecast, the overall message being delivered is one of rejection of the two-party hegemonic power shared for the last century between Labour and the Conservatives.
Labour appears to be suffering an outcome at least as bad as anyone expected, and there is, overall, very little for the Conservatives to celebrate either. They might have had the old swing in their favour from Labour, but the overall trend is still one of significant seat losses, a pattern they share with Labour, and in both cases, Reform is the major beneficiary.
As I have also noted in my earlier post, and in the video that will be coming out shortly, the pattern behind this trend is very marked. The North and North West, including Manchester, plus old Labour Red Wall seats, are all moving heavily to Reform, as are some coastal regions like Plymouth and Southend, parts of Essex and North Lincolnshire.
It does not take too much analysis to work out what is happening here. Areas of England suffering the greatest deprivation are voting for Reform. Perversely, they are the areas that will suffer most heavily as a consequence of Reform's policies and the attacks that they will undertake on the provision of healthcare, education, social care, social housing, special educational needs support, and support for local economies. People do, however, appear to be indifferent to this. In the face of neoliberalism's failure to deliver well-being for people on the periphery of England, as well as in old industrial towns, people are voting for self-destruction because there is no hope. It is hard to come to any other conclusion.
Perversely, it is also true that these areas, which often have the lowest migrant populations in the UK, are also heavily sold on the anti-migrant rhetoric that Farage sells, when in London, which has the greatest ethnic diversity and largest ethnic minority populations, Reform is making no progress at all. The perverse appeal of Reform is, therefore, made clear both economically and socially.
It is important to note that the rejection of neoliberalism also extends to the Liberal Democrats. They have had a perversely successful night, increasing their seats and the number of councils that they control, but their level of support as measured by share of the vote has, overall, fallen quite significantly. They have won because, unlike Reform and the Greens, they know how to work within a first-past-the-post electoral system, concentrating their votes in areas where they are likely to win, and succeeding as a result.
Whether this is a long-term strategy for them is not clear. The rejection of neoliberalism is apparent throughout the sentiment expressed by voters in this election. The sense of rejection they feel toward a hierarchy of power that has very obviously and deliberately left them behind cannot be avoided, and the Liberal Democrats do belong in the upper echelons of that hierarchy.
So where are the Greens? Three things need to be said. First, so far, they cannot claim that they are Labour's heir apparent on the left because, in terms of electoral results, that is not what we are seeing. They are picking up a lot of second places, but, in our current electoral system, that is not good enough, and they must know it.
Secondly, I think we have to be clear that the media assaults on Polanski, which are very often deeply antisemitic in their tone, are working. The hypocrisy in the mainstream media on this issue is quite extraordinary and needs to be called out time and again, but other parties are not doing that because they are gaining as a result, and so the exceptionally dirty fight against Polanski, which is following the same patterns as that used against Jeremy Corbyn, is clearly working. The Greens have to broaden their appeal and their leadership base to overcome this problem. The other parties also have to walk their talk on antisemitism. Labour, in particular, is not.
Thirdly, and I cannot avoid saying this, the Greens need something to say. From feedback received from people I know, it was Green Party strategy to listen on the doorstep during the course of this campaign, and not persuade people of what the Greens might offer. In some areas, they tried to replicate the Liberal Democrat offering on issues like potholes, which has worked so well for them in local elections, while in others they ended up sounding almost as managerial as Labour. If I am confused as a result as to what the Greens were really trying to say in this election, then quite reasonably so will other people be, and unless the Greens can get their policy-making processes streamlined and into effective action, the chance that they are going to deliver the necessary counterbalance to Reform as Labour collapses looks to be very low indeed. I can only be despondent about this and urge them to get their act together.
So, at this stage, and ignoring all the implications of the Welsh and Scottish parliamentary votes, which are going to be constitutionally massive, where are we?
The conclusion is clear. We are in a country divided. That division is real. It is drawn on the lines of wealth, income and social division. Those whom neoliberalism has left behind have made it clear that they've had enough. That, however, may not be enough to drive Reform into government. Whilst they have won many seats in these elections, this is on the basis of low turnout, with the angriest being those who turned up to vote. This may not be indicative of what may happen in the general election, although I think that the division is still real and, under the first-past-the-post electoral system, could still be catastrophic.
When the Tories might be desperately avoiding an alternative to shutting up shop and closing down the whole show, we cannot rule out the possibility that they will form a coalition with Reform after the next election to impose neo-fascist government on this country.
The problem is that a Labour Party which has been deliberately gutted of anyone with the talent to think, lead, formulate strategy or deliver a plan is still in government, possessed of the theoretical power to change our electoral system to restore greater democracy and better representation within future governments, but with no indication of any ability to do so.
What, then, do I feel this morning? I am worried, but I am not yet despairing. I have to cling to hope wherever it might be found, even if, at present, it is hard to locate.
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The main stream political parties are wilful in their refusal to see that their neoliberal policies especially the mantras of ” we can’t afford it” and “tax and spend” are the cause of the UK’s political malaise.
The result the breeding ground for the extreme right wing.
Doing nothing as shown by no Steer and the Tories is not the answer.
Urgent change is required before it’s too late.
Since moving out to rural Derbyshire in 2000, although I love it dearly, I have found something rather unpleasant out here in ‘the sticks’.
If you want to know where the real redoubt against a progressive England lurks – it’s out here in countryside and small towns – this is where your real poor live and your ‘Little Englanders’ rule.
This is where – I can tell you – policies made at Westminster do not penetrate – minimum wage in the agricultural labour market? A big joke. Tied cottages? Oh yes. Ossified social mobility? Definitely.
If you want reforms of our political system, it is the little District Councils that need sorting out and auditing good and proper. This is where the rich donors are – not just abroad folks, but out amongst the green fields and pastures of of England.
They are dug in like ticks and even now buying up farm land to build their new castles for the next episode of the Neo- Feudalism in our cod democracy.
I know.
Apparently places where the Greens are likely to win are not counting until later.
This, as you say, is a very incomplete set of results. Sadly, by the time the results announced the MSM may have moved on.
But it is true that the Greens need a clear simple message – all political parties do. And also true that Zack Polanski has been the subject of scurrilous, anti-Semitic personal attacks. One might view that positively, in a sense, in that they wouldn’t be bothering to attack him we’re he not a threat.
Zack is a new inexperienced political leader. He will take time to develop. He’s not perfect but his past missteps, before he entered politics, are minor compared to the corruption and dishonesty of all the other political leaders. It is good that they are throwing these issues at him now. It gets them out of the way long before a general election.
‘ have to cling to hope ‘ . <p>
Yes Richard but it must be clear by now that our politics is utterly corrupted and dysfunctional , especially because it is now funded to a large extent by private ‘donations’ from moneyed interests and foreign lobbyists. <p>
John McDonnell said overnight he wants a complete rethink of Labour policy and strategy – but how is that even possible when the Health Secretary is actually funded by private healthcare and pharmaceutical interests, and is dismantling the NHS from the isnide.?<p>
Democracy within political parties has been eroded – so they are now largely bought and sold by big business interests and or ex-pat billionaires like Harborne with Reform. If it was a dystopian novel it would hardly be believed.<p>
Yet it is barely discussed. This is the nightmare we are living in. People in the North voting Reform presumably are voting for ‘something different’, – it is well documented people think ‘they are all in it for themselves’. In the thirties that led to the Nazis.<p>
I cant see how any of this will lead to the only thing which would get us out of all this – that we have to de-monetise politics. Its constitutional reform but its not going to happen.
It could be argued that the results so far show that , on the one hand the country is divided as you say, but on the other hand, it is also united in the sense that there is shared sense that the political system and the political establishment (including the media) have failed us all and that change is essential. The real problem I see is that none of the main parties are prepared to countenance change (andPR must be at the top of the list). However, for how much longer will the public put up with the current self-serving political establishment? If the public moods turns, what form will any protest take? What will happen if the political establishment tell us that we must all pay more taxes and suffer more cuts to public services to fund massive increases in defence spending and refuse to tax the wealthy? We live in troubling times.
Much to agree with
If the Labour government has any sense (!) they will push through electoral reform as soon as they can. The only way to prevent Farage and his ilk from taking power is to follow Wales and Scotland and introduce proportional representation.
Agreed
We’re still around nine hours away from knowing the full picture, but hope will be found in Scotland. If the results are anything like polling, Farage’s franchise will be kept below twenty seats. Not, of course, that you’d know this from Saturday’s front pages, which will have Offord grinning like a Cheshire cat as if he won the election.
I’m rationing the amount of time following these election results because just one second of seeing/hearing Fartrage is far too much (I wish he would join the Orange one in being blasted off to Mars (based on a meme I saw on a certain social media site:-) )). Same goes for Badenoch. Also, can only stomach Starmer for so long.
There are still just over 3 years to go until the next election as I am assuming that the current government will wait as log as they can until calling it. My hope, as previously mentioned, is that some sort of progressive alliance emerges focusing on doing what is necessary to improve the lives of everyone. I suspect that I will be voting tactically whenever the general election does take place and it will be the party best placed to keep out Ref**k.
Craig
“when in London, which has the greatest ethnic diversity and largest ethnic minority populations, Reform is making no progress at all”
This is also a completely accurate description of Trump and his hard core MAGAts.
I am avoiding most media today as I am so disheartened.
From people I spoke to, the greens were done by the headlines in the papers these past few days. Zach Polanski was lambasted by a friend of mine due to his claim about being Red Cross spokesman. Why do that!? I found that difficult to defend because he admitted it. These headlines will have effected perceptions of him and other candidates.
Now, a lot of people know the game, no one is perfect. But people take superficial glances at stuff and it’s damaging.
I really want the greens to get it together.