England's local election results are revealing a dramatic political shift. Reform is making major gains across poorer regions, coastal towns, and former Labour heartlands, whilst London and larger cities are resisting the trend.
In this video, I look at what these results tell us about poverty, inequality, neoliberal failure, Labour's collapse outside London, Conservative decline, Liberal Democrat resilience, and the Greens' disappointing performance.
I also ask whether Britain's traditional two-party system is now breaking apart for good, and what this means for the future of English politics.
The early results suggest a country splitting politically, geographically, and economically, and unless inequality is tackled, Reform's growth may continue.
This is the audio version:
This is the transcript:
It's just after 7:00 in the morning on the 8th of May 2026, and a new England is emerging as a result of this morning's local council results, those that are already declared, that is.
We've only got one-third of the results in at present, that or near abouts, and the consequences are clear. Let's ignore Scotland and Wales for the moment. There are no election results from there as yet. Let's just talk about England and the major political trends that are already visible this morning.
Reform is advancing strongly across England, but it has to be said, that is only outside London, and it is also only outside our larger towns and cities. In poorer regions and coastal areas, many people are swinging to Farage's Reform Party, and that is particularly true in the northeast and the northwest of the country.
In the northeast, Reform won all the available seats in Hartlepool. In the northwest, in places like Chorley and Tameside, there have been big wins for Reform at cost to Labour, and that is also being seen in other areas in Manchester as well, where there have been big swings once more.
Reform is now winning many seats, but so far, few councils. Only Newcastle-under-Lyme has so far become a Reform council as a consequence of these elections, and it was one of the rare ones outside London where all seats were up for election. The new council is dominated by Reform, and the losses were to Labour, who lost all but two of their seats, and to the Conservatives as well.
This was a general trend across the areas where Reform won heavily. They won at the expense of both of these parties. But let's be clear, they are struggling in urban areas. London is resisting Reform very clearly. They've won almost no seats that I can see there as yet in the about five results so far declared, and in places like Oxford, and Reading, and Lincoln, they are showing small swings and, in fact, are making no significant gains.
England is splitting politically and geographically.
The fact is that Labour is having a terrible night overall. It's losing more seats than it's winning, and losses outside London are particularly severe. They're not so bad in London. But Manchester is doing badly for Labour, and that's particularly significant because that is the power base for both Andy Burnham and Angela Rayner, who are major challengers to Keir Starmer in any leadership race, and that leaves them politically exposed, just as much as Keir Starmer is. The fact that Labour is going to be in a terribly confused situation now is something that we can be sure of. There is no good outcome from this night for them. The narrative of confusion is going to continue.
The Conservatives are also collapsing, but rather more quietly than Labour, but they started these elections in a worse position than Labour did.
Their losses are heavy, but not as proportionately as bad as Labour's, and they've also had some wins. They've won seats from Labour in Harlow, in Essex. They've won Westminster Council, taking it back from Labour, and they have pulled themselves into a position of no overall control in Wandsworth in London. These are notable successes for them. Kemi Badenoch will no doubt be shouting about them, but she can't pretend otherwise; this is also a disastrous night for the Conservative Party. The two-party hegemony of power between Labour and the Tories that has ruled Britain for years is over. These two parties are both heading to be toast, and I think that's the fair description of them.
The Liberal Democrats are proving resilient. Their overall voting share is down; I should stress that point, but they are winning seats, and in some places the results are quite extraordinary.
In Richmond-upon-Thames in London, they won all the council seats, every single one of them. They almost replicated that in Sutton, in South London, taking fifty-one out of fifty-five seats and protest vote is obviously helping the Liberal Democrats' support in some areas, but let's also be clear, in those areas where they have a long track record in local government, people are supporting them. They have got something going for them, and that is not what Labour and the Conservatives can be saying. That is the Liberal Democrats' strength at this moment. They are not down and out; the other two are.
The Greens have undoubtedly had a disappointing night so far. There can't be any other description than that. They are winning seats, but they are coming second in so many of them that they are not getting the breakthrough they need. That is clear. But the point that I'm going to make is this: the media attacks on Zack Polanski have worked. The attempt to cast him as the next Jeremy Corbyn is clearly having an impact, but at the same time, the Greens have to also get their act together.
They need to make clear what their message is, and I don't think that is the case. Look at Tameside in Manchester. They didn't win there, and that borough covers part of the Gorton and Denton seat that they just won in a parliamentary by-election. The failure to translate that into a local result is very worrying for them.
So where are we? Poverty is driving the Reform vote. That's the message that we have from this morning. Neoliberalism is clearly failing, and those who are suffering are registering a protest vote. The fact that they are doing so by registering a vote for the only party in the UK that is dedicated to making the poorer people in this country very much worse off is one of the perverse outcomes of this election.
It is completely bizarre that the people who will suffer from cuts to services, cuts to healthcare, cuts to support for special educational needs, cuts for support to councils, cuts for support to social care, all of those things are going to be delivered by Reform, and all of those things are going to have the greatest impacts in places like Hartlepool, Chorley, and Newcastle-under-Lyme, places where they are winning.
This is the perverse outcome of the night, but Farage is winning, and the fact is, other parties have got to get their acts together to prove that they can deliver for those places, or we are facing a fascist onslaught. Let's not pretend otherwise, and it is going to be very horrible indeed.
This is the fact that we're having to face. We are at a very dangerous political moment in this country. England is splitting along economic lines. First-past-the-post is distorting representation very heavily in some areas, and unless inequality is addressed, Reform will keep growing.
That's what I think. What do you think? There are more results to come. This situation will change as the day progresses. Let us have your opinion. We're not putting a poll down below because we don't think that is fair, as yet, but we will do potentially later in the day. Like this video if that's what you do. Please share it, and if you want to support our work, we would, as ever, be very grateful.
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“The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.”
― George Orwell, Animal Farm
Quite so.
Well its interesting to say the least. I think a major problem is that none of the parties really offer a credible set of policies and people have found out that regardless of who runs the local council it makes no real difference. Thats partly because local authorities do not have the funds but also reflects a lack of imagination. In Cornwall, the current Lib Dem/Independent coalition is no different from the previous Conservative administration. [No elections in Cornwall yesterday]. As for Reform I think people turn to them out of desperation feeling that they could not be any worse. Regarding the issue of immigration as the main issue I think masks the feeling that the other parties have in their view failed on this as on other issues. Immigration is a symbol of a wider political malaise.
“Immigration is a symbol of a wider political malaise.”
Immigration is NOTHING but a scapegoat. Get rid of all the non-settled immigrants and NOTHING would be any different except more crops rotting in the field causing even higher food prices.
Correct
This, too, is likely right.
Good elections to lose
Yes, itis disappointing for the Greens. yes it is difficult for them to express clearly and simply what their policies on inequality, taxation, social security, transport etc when the mainstream media interviewers are intent on dem0nisig them from the very start of an interview. Trying to make out they are for free for all dug addicts, anti semite ete etc. When it is clearly visible that there is police brutalitty kicking a person, already tasered and lying on the ground to have violent kicking of the head many times or, when the genocide in Gaza is so apparent appearing on our screens day after day and commentators still refusing to acknowledge these facts. Hopefully, with a lot of new blo0d coming into the party , overcoming these smears will become more effective and the true Green message starts getting through to a wider public.
Many vocal Labour supporters appear to reflect the PLP: they want to ignore that the government has been pretty damned awful and doggedly refuse to accept that they have any lessons to learned. That the Labour Party have played the anti-semiticism smear card again speaks volumes.
Agreed re: the Greens. Their gains have been very modest so far. They have come under a lot of unwarranted fire from Labour and media but they’re still fluffing too many policy announcements (I’ve read some of the responses to their intended repeal of anti-union laws introduced since 1979; some unfair but plenty that highlight problems) and still sound a bit shallow on other issues.
I’ve listened to a fair few people tell me that they have voted tactically: supporting Labour in the belief that they were the most likely to stop Reform rather than voting Green. This is purely anecdotal but I wouldn’t be entirely surprised to discover that rather o lot of this has taken place meaning that today’s results still show Labour over-performing at the expense of (mostly) the Greens.
I’ve not encountered any of the turnout figures yet but they may also tell a significant story too.
See my previous post – that is what I think.
As for the Greens – I totally agree – they need to be more certain what they stand for, and deal with the Corbynisation of Polanski (however, it shows that the pleonexia Establishment we have are scared of him – but do the Greens know this – can they capitalise on it?).
To be a country – a real country, people/we have to cohere around certain values, realities and principles. Quite clearly we do not.
The country is in serious trouble. We are going into a political black hole, with all the mystery of real black hole. So, we need to think about how to get through that and also accept that maybe this is inevitable but that is only what will make us wake up and realise. Then the long road to justice starts again. This does not mean being quiet about it BTW – far from it.
But our irresponsible politics – born of Ayn Rand’s ‘Atlas Shrugged’ is what has led us to this point. Neo-liberal ‘freedom’ has only led to confusion, lawlessness and a disregard for others and the planet. It is freedom from responsibility that Neo-liberalism has gifted to us. This means that even efforts to get grounded reality heard like MMT and what we learnt from WW2 about Fascism and how our prophets tried to teach us how to live humanely for example, gets lost and drowned out by the cacophony of me, me, me, me.
Oh dear………………
Torbay didn’t have local elections this year, and it would have been interesting if they had, having a Lib Dem MP but having gone Tory before and being a coastal location that’s seemed more likely to turn towards Reform.
Reform would get increased support from being a relatively non-multicultural area with an older population and high levels of poverty causing understandable dissatisfaction. Lib Dems, however, have demonstrated an ability to get regeneration funding, to make the right calls on local monuments and green space, and to generally seem on the side of the majority rather than big developers. It’s good to see that delivering for the local population makes a difference to voting patterns.
Neoliberalism hollows the country out, turns us into rats in a sack, who can’t think only attack each other especially the weak and different looking ones.
The mainstream media rarely expose neoliberalism, the pattern which connects.
“the Greens have to also get their act together”
So do the Greens in the USA.
The Greens in the USA have the image of the stereotypical “senior citizen Hippie California Tree Hugger”.
In my arrogant Yank opinion, the best things ALL Greens to do is adopt a policy of “anything needed and possible to decrease the reliance on imported energy”.
Fair
One response to the current chaos – if we have any MPs who genuinely put the interests of the UK population first…
1. Elect a leader who will prioritise a response to the current chaos, without worrying about 2029 elections or their own personal profit. Starmer has to go, he is both dishonest and grossly incompetent.
2. That new leader to do 4 things with their current majority – introduce PR, spend into the areas of need, especially housing, and U turn on foreign policy regarding US and Israel, and finally, stop demonising scapegoats. In the meantime, until that leader is installed, Starmer can have a legacy – getting UK prepared for Hormuz shortages, rationing, reserves, financial support, speed limits etc.
By 2029, Reform would have far fewer grievances to exploit, we would be a safer country, and we would have some useful international allies.
“Greater love hath no party than it lay down its life for its electorate.”
Or Labour MPs can continue with their current suicidal selfish stupidity and lead us towards the cliff edge so Fa***e can shove us over the edge in 2029.
As for the Greens, their priority is to urgently get organised with policies and promotion of same, ready for PR in 2029.
Thank you
Much to agree with