Will your summer holiday actually happen this year? Who knows, least of all the government, it seems.
And this is just a microcosm of what the whole economy is about to face. The Strait of Hormuz closure and the geopolitical crisis involving Israel, the US, and Iran are not temporary disruptions. They now look to be structural nd ongoing. And the government's response so far is nowhere near equal to the scale of the threat.
So, what should you do right now?
- Do not assume your summer flight will go ahead
- Check your consumer rights — especially the £200+ compensation threshold for cancellations
- If you have a package holiday, check the financial resilience of the operator and the insurer
- Plan a possible alternative. Get your disappointment in early.
- Pray to whoever you think might listen. We might need that.
This is the audio version:
This is the transcript:
Will your summer holiday in the sun actually happen this year?
The Strait of Hormuz does of course remain closed and tensions are rising. Military conflict between Israel, the USA and Iran looks more likely to escalate than ease at the moment, and jet fuel supplies in the UK are already under serious pressure.
The holiday season peak is now only weeks away from beginning, and the risk of cancellation of many holiday flights is not hypothetical. This is a rapidly developing crisis.
Critically, the government has gone absent without leave during this crisis. It's saying nothing, and that's true of not just this issue, but many others that might be coming our way.
The fuel supply position is already critical. Let's be clear. The UK government warned in late April of only six weeks of jet fuel supply being available in the UK, and whilst regulations have been relaxed to allow the use of US standard aviation fuel in this country now, the Transport Secretary is saying that airlines have only six to eight weeks of fuel as a result.
No one is now talking about what might happen next.
Jet fuel prices across Europe have already doubled, and reports in the Financial Times suggest that absolute shortages could hit in June.
Oil traders are already forecasting fuel shortages intensifying then and jet fuel is high on the list of fuels facing critical unavailability. Because that coincides with the beginning of the peak summer holiday season this crisis is not distant: it is just a matter of weeks away, and it is going to affect millions of people.
And yet, there is no serious official projection that assumes a rapid return to normal supplies to justify the apparent complacency that the government has about this issue. The timing could not be worse for the aviation sector and the holidaymaker.
The government is already quietly preparing for more flight cancellations. They're doing so to allow airlines to preserve fuel, but that is an extreme short-term measure because, overall, it is the government's inaction with regard to the total fuel supply situation that is worrying, and no one is addressing what will happen if jet fuel simply runs out in the UK. Who is going to see their flight cancelled, and what might the consequences be? That's the question that is going unanswered at present.
And the fact is that if your airline cancels your flight, you are entitled to a full refund; that's what is required. But they may also be required to book you on an alternative flight, maybe by another airline, if that is a possibility and you still want to go. But if that is not possible and the airline cannot prove circumstances beyond their control gave rise to the cancellation, they are required to pay you compensation of more than £200, although you have to apply for it, and you only get it if they can prove that the circumstance was really out of their control, and they will be saying that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created a situation where they cannot be held responsible for the cancellation.
We are then living with deep uncertainty here, and that will only get worse for those who have booked other aspects of their holiday, which will not be related to the airline ticket. If you've got a hotel booking you can't cancel, or a car hire, or transfer costs, or whatever else it might be, there may be no compensation for those, just because the airline can't get you there. And if you're on a package holiday, things are different again.
Package holiday customers do have strong consumer protection rights. In principle, the full cost of the holiday should be covered if the package is cancelled, but the cost of mass compensation that we face the risk of this summer could overwhelm many tour operators and those who are insuring them. That is how big the scale of the crisis is. Do remember that this is the biggest global supply crisis with regard to oil in the history of our usage of that commodity.
This is an experience way beyond the imaginations of all of those who were insuring this risk, and the money could run out.
Perhaps worse still, for those who work in the sector, many package holiday companies and even airlines already operate on very thin margins, and if claims are large enough, some of those operators will undoubtedly go out of business. We've already seen this in the US. Spirit Airlines in the US has already collapsed in the last week or so, and European carriers facing the same combination of rising cost and collapsing demand might go the same way. Remember that jet fuel is a major component of the airline's operating costs when it comes to getting you on your summer holiday. With fuel prices doubled, surcharges on existing bookings are increasingly likely, and the cost of compensation alongside fuel costs could finish off weaker carriers.
The risk of airline failure is then very real in both the UK and Europe, and that is only the smallest part of the coming crisis.
Not being able to holiday in the Mediterranean is, in the grand scheme of things, a minor issue in the larger picture of the economic crisis coming our way. The same fuel crisis that threatens your holiday is also threatening road transport and the movement of goods in this country. Food supply chains, business survival, and jobs are all at risk. Real poverty and growing inequality will follow from sustained fuel shortages, and the economy faces the prospect of serious disruption by the end of June: within eight weeks, in other words.
This is the wider context in which the holiday crisis must be understood. So why does this holiday question matter politically, and why am I picking it up rather than one of the other issues? That is because there is now a widespread expectation amongst many British people of a guaranteed annual holiday abroad. Now, that's not everybody. Remember that half of people in the UK almost never fly abroad for a holiday or anything else, but those affected will be amongst the most vocal parts of the population. They tend to be better off, and they tend to complain loudest, and they will complain very loudly indeed if they don't get their holybob in the sun, as they might put it. This makes the political pressure significant, even if the issue itself is not the most serious one that we're facing.
And in that context, the complete absence of government guidance at this moment is itself a political phenomenon. Ministers have commented on the crisis, but are offering no real direction as to where we might go, and that's because we have a government that is missing in action.
There appears to be no serious government plan for what happens when the fuel runs out right now. The ministers are offering a short-term reassurance with no horizon beyond six to eight weeks. The reason is straightforward. They're too frightened to do so. No minister knows if they will be in office very soon. Heidi Alexander, the transport secretary, has very little chance of retaining that job if we have another Prime Minister, if Keir Starmer is thrown out of office after the local council elections this week, and with Labour's poll ratings now below 20%, the political situation is itself unstable.
Keir Starmer might not even be able to command the Commons majority for much longer. A government uncertain of its own survival cannot plan for a national economic crisis. That's my point. That's why I'm focusing on this. We are seeing complacency and not leadership right now, and repeating airline assurances of six-to-eight-week supply is not a policy, but no minister is taking responsibility for the period beyond that window, and this is a foreseeable crisis. I know that because I can talk about it here and now to you, and ministers themselves have acknowledged the risks, but they are doing nothing about them. This is a failure on their part to meet their responsibilities. The public deserves clear information and a credible response, and it is getting neither.
That reveals where we are. The holiday fuel crisis I'm talking about, and I think it's real, and I think there's a very good chance you may not be able to get your summer holiday this year. I'm sorry, but that's a fact. It is a microcosm of what the whole economy is about to face. Fuel shortages, supply chain disruption, and business failures are converging. All of this is likely to become acute by late June: weeks away. The government is pretending that things will be fine when the evidence says otherwise, and this is not just about poor communication. It is political irresponsibility at a moment of national risk. The question is not whether you will get to the Mediterranean then; it is whether we will have a functioning economy by the autumn.
So what should you do now if you have a summer holiday flight booked? Do not assume your summer flight will go ahead. That's my warning to you. Think about what else you might do for a summer holiday. Get in your disappointment early, and do it now, and plan for an alternative, but do check your consumer rights first. Know what they are and what you're entitled to, and do understand that compensation depends on the airline formally cancelling your flight. If you have booked a package holiday, do check the financial resilience of the operator and the insurer, and be aware that you still face the risk of surcharges if you do get away.
But above all, recognise that this crisis extends far beyond the question of holidays. We are now in deep doo-doo, if you don't mind me using the term, and it's time the government recognised that fact. They're letting us sleepwalk into a crisis. That is negligent.
That is what you need to think about this Thursday when you go to the ballot box, if you do - I don't get that chance, we haven't got an election, you might not either - but if you do, think about that when you get there, and do not vote Labour when they are failing to manage our economy in the face of the crisis, not of their creation, but for which they have responsibility when it comes to management. They're not, and that's unforgivable.
That's what I think. What do you think? There's a poll down below. Let us have your comments. Please share this video if you like it, and do subscribe to our channel, and if you're so inclined, and think that you might have a little spare cash this summer, after all, crisis in holidays or not, if you'd like to support us, we'd be really grateful.
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tRump is back pedalling again given today’s media headlines. However, even if a deal with Iran goes through and normal sailings resume, the multi-week/multi-month delay will still cause shortages. As per previous comments on previous posts, most of the flying from the UK (& other locations) is by those that are better off (business travel? largely shifted to Zoom & Teams). Perhaps the better off in the UK could spend their hols & money in the UK? just a thought.
Can anyone rework that Cliff Richard classic to, We’re all not going on a summer holiday’
Heres in interesting question……….
The issue isnt so much going to be is there fuel available at your departure but at your destination.
So we could have a situation where British holidaymakers fly off to Ruritania* and two weeks later there is no fuel at Strelsau so they cant be flown back. If that does happen of course there will be additional pressure on European rail networks and presumably no diesel to send them home by road or ship up the Danube either?
That of course is before you start looking at places not reachable by ‘land’ – Greek Islands, East Africa etc are going to be interesting.
Just remember what happened when that volcano in Iceland that I cant pronounce went ‘Bang’ a few years ago
* Ruritania, a fictional Central European country in the novel ‘The Prisoner of Zenda’ The capital Strelsau is reachable by train from Dresden
My brother-in-law is due to fly to Thailand in a week’s time, for 6 weeks. Via Dubai. He is completely unconcerned that thee may be any issues.
That’s weird.
Look at the poll results here today and on YouTube
Cyndy, according to the latest news this morning – 7th May – UAE airspace is closed again.
Perhaps things may change before your brother-in-law is due to fly, but I’d be seriously worried about what Richard points to: getting home again may be the biggest problem in several weeks’ time.
Agreed
Return tickets may nit mean what they say
That’s funny. Here in Africa, we’re worried about what to eat, scraping the bottom of the pot for burnt oatmeal. Meanwhile, UK people are worried about whether they go off somewhere for a holiday. And your airlines are running some unprofitable flights because they want to keep their landing slots due to daft EU rules?!? Hope you get your ticket refund, prof
I have not flown for a flown for very many years.
Kudos. There’s an idea to spread. As the above commenter observes, while the multitudes are worried about the basic necessities, the British and other privileged people are beside themselves if they can’t fly to some distant location in order to sit around, or whatever.
It’s madness.
Meanwhile, it seems the only crisis worrying Sir Keir Starmer is the so-called “antisemitism crisis“.
“Meanwhile, it seems the only crisis worrying Sir Keir Starmer is the so-called “antisemitism crisis“.”
I doubt you will publish this but it is interesting that this is the most popular comment on this thread and mentions the “SO CALLED” antisemitism crisis. It is also interesting that you didn’t pull the writer up on this. It seems the writer, you and the readership seem to think the anti semitism crisis is in some way made up. To me this is a toxic attitude and one shared by the left ,
The antisemitism crisis is being built up by (1) the government’s support for Israel’s genocide in Gaza, which has led to any legitimate criticism of the Israeli government – even by Jews – being labelled as “antisemitism”, and support for Palestinians being conflated with terrorism, and (2) the media similarly seeing all Jews as supporting the Israeli government, when they don’t.
These two positions are actually somewhat in conflict, but the MSM don’t care about that.
Paul
Thank you
Just as an aside Simon Calder the go-to travel guru for radio 4 was extremely perky on their 12 o’clock consumer programme – he couldn’t have been more upbeat – ‘book book and book again – there are great bargains out there ‘<p>
And as for the summer ‘if your flight back is cancelled the airline has to get you back home'<p>
No doubt his income depends on persuading people to travel – and he usually sounds quite informative. But given Richard’s list – you would have thought a note of caution is in order.
He is, in effect, a shrill for the travel industry.
“The airline has to get you back home” How? If there is no fuel available?
Also, and it is something that is not being properly discussed, the airlines’ obligations to passengers whose flights are cancelled are very clear, EXCEPT if the cancellation is beyond the control of the airline. Then, they appear to have no obligations and neither do travel insurance companies. The lack of jet fuel would appear to me to be beyond the control of the airlines.
The EU says this crisis is not beyond airline’s control
Which mught be a sign of madness
We used our teachers’ pensions lump sums and a small inheritance to buy a cheap holiday home in Spain a few years ago and have flights booked with Easyjet to spend June and July there. I tried to find out if Easyjet are likely to cancel the flights – particularly the return flight at the beginning of August – and found this on LBC’s website:
At this moment in time, easyJet will not be cancelling any flights due to the fuel shortages and increased prices. The airline has confirmed they are not seeing any disruption to their fuel supply yet and want their customers to fly with confidence this summer.
Easyjet’s website reads: “The airline plans to operate its full schedule of flights across its entire network.”
“Passengers booked on upcoming flights, or on package holidays, should proceed to the airport with confidence, as the airline is not making cancellations related to fuel availability.”
They have also assured customers they won’t impose any fuel surcharges meaning customers will not face any extra charges on an existing booking.
After reading your dire warnings Richard, I have not been reassured by Easyjet’s (or the government’s) complacency.
That statement reads like the chair’s proverbial vote of confidence in the foorball club manager
This does present an interesting tax opportunity for HMRC if the government legislates for it.
Presently 2nd homes in the UK pay double council tax (higher in Midlothian but double is the most common premium). A foreign national with a main residence abroad but a 2nd home in the UK also pays double council tax.
But UK nationals can avoid this if their second home is abroad. They don’t pay the double council tax. And while they’re away, their empty furnished UK property isn’t benefitting others. If that loophole could be closed, and it could be discovered by looking at capital flows or land registry information exchange with the UK, then charging the equivalent of double council tax on the 2nd home abroad would close the tax gap and reduce inequality.
Travel by train! You can get to most places in Europe by train – a more civilised, slower way to travel – though I guess train prices will be going up as well!
I live in Somerset and am amazed that so many people insist on flying abroad for holidays. I still haven’t explored a lot of this beautiful county- and these islands comprise 4 countries, each with stunning countryside, hills, and coastline- and different languages, too! A wise old Jesuit I knew- one of the rebellious, socialist kind- said to me that as churches emptied here during the 60s and 70s, people walked out of churches and straight on to aeroplanes, switching their worship from the Son to the Sun! I have only ever got on a plane when forced to for work, which thankfully was rarely, and you couldn’t pay me to fly for a holiday- I never have- airports are so grim and stressful, people are treated like cattle, really, and they are always situated miles from anywhere- and we have to accept that burning fossil fuels for a couple of weeks abroad is over. Stay in these lovely islands, or take the train to Europe. Journey somewhere, don’t just arrive, go slowly and look around you. We are so rich in both geography and history, and I could spend years just exploring a fraction of our coastline. Walked some of the Welsh coastal path last year- very slowly!- it was absolutely brilliant. Spend your money here, you won’t regret it.
So much to agree with
And I have no problem with repeating detinations
There is always a new angle to see, bird to watch or photo to take.
For a good few years running an ex and I booked a beach hut on Whitsand Bay.
As it was right on the beach at the bottom of a cliff it took a trip to get the hang of the place but after that it was dead easy because we had walked to the bakery at Whitsand (or whatever) last year so if we didnt do it this time we hadnt missed anything so to turn Richards post on its head slightly there was no pressure on to do anything after a few years
To agree about the holidays one can take in UK. Anyone on here been to Bettyhill? My wife Elizabeth was thrilled to visit.
I shall be tending my vegetable plot – and planting extra showings for the autumn!
Also intending to make cider with loads of the apples and jam with the soft fruit.
Oh and I am considering putting the incubator on and hatching chickens!!
I agree, Richard- returning to places discovered by accident on holiday in the UK is lovely. You feel a connection to the place, cafe, pub or restaurant you first visited years ago, it’s amazing how people in hospitality remember returning visitors and value us highly. It’s a good feeling to be welcomed back year after year. I went to Anglesey 20 years ago on my own to mooch around looking for a Bronze Age burial site (I know! Not for everyone, my partner stayed at home)- stayed for 2 weeks. Walked into the only pub in a small, Welsh speaking village on my first night- total silence fell- I nervously ordered a Guinness in very bad Welsh. The locals fell about at my terrible pronunciation, took it on themselves to improve it, then started taking me to little known sites and inviting me home for tea. On my last night, I bought everyone a drink in my adopted local and asked why they had been so kind to me. The publican said, “Because you tried”- to speak Welsh. I’ve been back many times over the years and am always welcomed with open arms. My Welsh has improved too, but they still roar with laughter over my pronunciation. And of course, I now call Anglesey Ynys Mon. I highly recommend going off the tourist track and making local friends!
🙂