Will your summer holiday actually happen this year? Who knows, least of all the government, it seems.

And this is just a microcosm of what the whole economy is about to face. The Strait of Hormuz closure and the geopolitical crisis involving Israel, the US, and Iran are not temporary disruptions. They now look to be structural nd ongoing. And the government's response so far is nowhere near equal to the scale of the threat.

So, what should you do right now?

• Do not assume your summer flight will go ahead
• Check your consumer rights — especially the £200+ compensation threshold for cancellations
• If you have a package holiday, check the financial resilience of the operator and the insurer
• Plan a possible alternative. Get your disappointment in early.
• Pray to whoever you think might listen. We might need that.

This is the audio version:

This is the transcript:

Will your summer holiday in the sun actually happen this year?

The Strait of Hormuz does of course remain closed and tensions are rising. Military conflict between Israel, the USA and Iran looks more likely to escalate than ease at the moment, and jet fuel supplies in the UK are already under serious pressure.

The holiday season peak is now only weeks away from beginning, and the risk of cancellation of many holiday flights is not hypothetical. This is a rapidly developing crisis.

Critically, the government has gone absent without leave during this crisis. It's saying nothing, and that's true of not just this issue, but many others that might be coming our way.

The fuel supply position is already critical. Let's be clear. The UK government warned in late April of only six weeks of jet fuel supply being available in the UK, and whilst regulations have been relaxed to allow the use of US standard aviation fuel in this country now, the Transport Secretary is saying that airlines have only six to eight weeks of fuel as a result.

No one is now talking about what might happen next.

Jet fuel prices across Europe have already doubled, and reports in the Financial Times suggest that absolute shortages could hit in June.

Oil traders are already forecasting fuel shortages intensifying then and jet fuel is high on the list of fuels facing critical unavailability. Because that coincides with the beginning of the peak summer holiday season this crisis is not distant: it is just a matter of weeks away, and it is going to affect millions of people.

And yet, there is no serious official projection that assumes a rapid return to normal supplies to justify the apparent complacency that the government has about this issue. The timing could not be worse for the aviation sector and the holidaymaker.

The government is already quietly preparing for more flight cancellations. They're doing so to allow airlines to preserve fuel, but that is an extreme short-term measure because, overall, it is the government's inaction with regard to the total fuel supply situation that is worrying, and no one is addressing what will happen if jet fuel simply runs out in the UK. Who is going to see their flight cancelled, and what might the consequences be? That's the question that is going unanswered at present.

And the fact is that if your airline cancels your flight, you are entitled to a full refund; that's what is required. But they may also be required to book you on an alternative flight, maybe by another airline, if that is a possibility and you still want to go. But if that is not possible and the airline cannot prove circumstances beyond their control gave rise to the cancellation, they are required to pay you compensation of more than £200, although you have to apply for it, and you only get it if they can prove that the circumstance was really out of their control, and they will be saying that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created a situation where they cannot be held responsible for the cancellation.

We are then living with deep uncertainty here, and that will only get worse for those who have booked other aspects of their holiday, which will not be related to the airline ticket. If you've got a hotel booking you can't cancel, or a car hire, or transfer costs, or whatever else it might be, there may be no compensation for those, just because the airline can't get you there. And if you're on a package holiday, things are different again.

Package holiday customers do have strong consumer protection rights. In principle, the full cost of the holiday should be covered if the package is cancelled, but the cost of mass compensation that we face the risk of this summer could overwhelm many tour operators and those who are insuring them. That is how big the scale of the crisis is. Do remember that this is the biggest global supply crisis with regard to oil in the history of our usage of that commodity.

This is an experience way beyond the imaginations of all of those who were insuring this risk, and the money could run out.

Perhaps worse still, for those who work in the sector, many package holiday companies and even airlines already operate on very thin margins, and if claims are large enough, some of those operators will undoubtedly go out of business. We've already seen this in the US. Spirit Airlines in the US has already collapsed in the last week or so, and European carriers facing the same combination of rising cost and collapsing demand might go the same way. Remember that jet fuel is a major component of the airline's operating costs when it comes to getting you on your summer holiday. With fuel prices doubled, surcharges on existing bookings are increasingly likely, and the cost of compensation alongside fuel costs could finish off weaker carriers.

The risk of airline failure is then very real in both the UK and Europe, and that is only the smallest part of the coming crisis.

Not being able to holiday in the Mediterranean is, in the grand scheme of things, a minor issue in the larger picture of the economic crisis coming our way. The same fuel crisis that threatens your holiday is also threatening road transport and the movement of goods in this country. Food supply chains, business survival, and jobs are all at risk. Real poverty and growing inequality will follow from sustained fuel shortages, and the economy faces the prospect of serious disruption by the end of June: within eight weeks, in other words.

This is the wider context in which the holiday crisis must be understood. So why does this holiday question matter politically, and why am I picking it up rather than one of the other issues? That is because there is now a widespread expectation amongst many British people of a guaranteed annual holiday abroad. Now, that's not everybody. Remember that half of people in the UK almost never fly abroad for a holiday or anything else, but those affected will be amongst the most vocal parts of the population. They tend to be better off, and they tend to complain loudest, and they will complain very loudly indeed if they don't get their holybob in the sun, as they might put it. This makes the political pressure significant, even if the issue itself is not the most serious one that we're facing.

And in that context, the complete absence of government guidance at this moment is itself a political phenomenon. Ministers have commented on the crisis, but are offering no real direction as to where we might go, and that's because we have a government that is missing in action.

There appears to be no serious government plan for what happens when the fuel runs out right now. The ministers are offering a short-term reassurance with no horizon beyond six to eight weeks. The reason is straightforward. They're too frightened to do so. No minister knows if they will be in office very soon. Heidi Alexander, the transport secretary, has very little chance of retaining that job if we have another Prime Minister, if Keir Starmer is thrown out of office after the local council elections this week, and with Labour's poll ratings now below 20%, the political situation is itself unstable.

Keir Starmer might not even be able to command the Commons majority for much longer. A government uncertain of its own survival cannot plan for a national economic crisis. That's my point. That's why I'm focusing on this. We are seeing complacency and not leadership right now, and repeating airline assurances of six-to-eight-week supply is not a policy, but no minister is taking responsibility for the period beyond that window, and this is a foreseeable crisis. I know that because I can talk about it here and now to you, and ministers themselves have acknowledged the risks, but they are doing nothing about them. This is a failure on their part to meet their responsibilities. The public deserves clear information and a credible response, and it is getting neither.

That reveals where we are. The holiday fuel crisis I'm talking about, and I think it's real, and I think there's a very good chance you may not be able to get your summer holiday this year. I'm sorry, but that's a fact. It is a microcosm of what the whole economy is about to face. Fuel shortages, supply chain disruption, and business failures are converging. All of this is likely to become acute by late June: weeks away. The government is pretending that things will be fine when the evidence says otherwise, and this is not just about poor communication. It is political irresponsibility at a moment of national risk. The question is not whether you will get to the Mediterranean then; it is whether we will have a functioning economy by the autumn.

So what should you do now if you have a summer holiday flight booked? Do not assume your summer flight will go ahead. That's my warning to you. Think about what else you might do for a summer holiday. Get in your disappointment early, and do it now, and plan for an alternative, but do check your consumer rights first. Know what they are and what you're entitled to, and do understand that compensation depends on the airline formally cancelling your flight. If you have booked a package holiday, do check the financial resilience of the operator and the insurer, and be aware that you still face the risk of surcharges if you do get away.

But above all, recognise that this crisis extends far beyond the question of holidays. We are now in deep doo-doo, if you don't mind me using the term, and it's time the government recognised that fact. They're letting us sleepwalk into a crisis. That is negligent.

That is what you need to think about this Thursday when you go to the ballot box, if you do - I don't get that chance, we haven't got an election, you might not either - but if you do, think about that when you get there, and do not vote Labour when they are failing to manage our economy in the face of the crisis, not of their creation, but for which they have responsibility when it comes to management. They're not, and that's unforgivable.

That's what I think. What do you think? There's a poll down below. Let us have your comments. Please share this video if you like it, and do subscribe to our channel, and if you're so inclined, and think that you might have a little spare cash this summer, after all, crisis in holidays or not, if you'd like to support us, we'd be really grateful.

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