Being a Cassandra is never popular. I was talking to two young people of my acquaintance yesterday, and forecast that their holiday plans for a trip to Ibiza this summer might well be disrupted by a forthcoming jet fuel crisis.
They were totally shocked by this suggestion. It had never occurred to them that Donald Trump's war could have such a personal impact on them. The immediate reaction of one of them was to suggest that they would drive to the Med instead. I pointed out that this might not be a better option, as if jet fuel is in short supply, so might petrol be, and the price might have increased substantially.
"I will cycle to the coast then," was the next reaction. I then pointed out that everyone else might be trying to do the same thing and that accommodation in this country might be very difficult to find as a result.
At this point, the counter-suggestions ran out, and my awareness that my popularity was falling fast grew by the moment. I changed the topic of conversation, bemused by the lack of awareness that these two apparently had that we live in a connected world where the actions of the grossly irresponsible, even, and perhaps most especially, if they are the leaders of major nations, do have consequences for other people's lives.
Right now, I can't help but feel as if we are living in a phoney war. There is a surreal quality to much of the news. For example, my morning headlines appear to be filled with images of last night's Met Gala in New York, where excess consumption appears to be the only identifiable theme, if sponsorship from Jeff Bezos can be ignored, and that is hard to do.
The disconnect between the gross excess of that event and reality is as great as that of my two acquaintances and their risk appraisal for their summer holiday, already booked. The Met Gala represents fantasy, pretence, and the deliberate flaunting of wealth to demonstrate, as such events always have, that the world is divided between those with wealth and those without it. There is a deliberate process involved that requires spectators and their admiration (via a drooling media) of what some might consider possible, even as others struggle to put food in front of their children.
That is gross enough, but now we have a war engaged for the same reason. Trump, aided, abetted and cajoled by Benjamin Netanyahu, took on Iran just because he could, and not because there was any reason to do so. In the wake of his supposed success in Venezuela, he thought he could go one stage further and demonstrate his ability to abuse the rights of yet another nation-state. But, just as those who think their wealth protects them sometimes get their comeuppance, and not just from pitchforks, so too has Trump discovered that there are limits to his excess, and that they have very real-world consequences.
Reviewing events in the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, I am left with a strange sense of unknowing. Our news media reported US claims as fact, without noting that the claims lacked evidential support and were unverified. What appeared likely to be credible Iranian counterclaims was dismissed. I was left with two overwhelming impressions. The first is that, as ever, truth is a victim of this war. The second is that the media no longer know what is happening and are ceasing to care. The claims are themselves the story. The reality is not.
That only compounds my own sense that most people, taking the news unthinkingly from mainstream media, are unsurprisingly unaware of what is about to hit the world. The Met Gala tells them where they are in the hierarchy, and too many accept that fact. Iran is remote, and they accept that too, as if both are inconsequential, if you care not to think about them.
This combination of falsehoods and deception is, however, deeply dangerous. We are heading for a crisis. There is a major risk of severe economic disruption very soon because, whatever the truth about what is happening in the Strait of Hormuz, it is not open to normal traffic now and it looks very unlikely that it will be for some time to come, meaning that shortages of oil, domestic energy, food, raw materials to keep industry going, and much else are going to become realities. Yet so many are wholly unaware as the media blitz continues to pretend that everything is progressing as normal, excess consumption remains desirable, and we should all continue in our unquestioning existences.
Being a Cassandra in this situation is not always popular, but it is necessary. We are in the deepest, darkest trouble now. As the FT notes this morning:
In volume terms, the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran is the largest disruption in the history of global oil markets.
If inventories run out, as they will begin to do in June, and there is no resumption of supply by then, as now seems very unlikely, supplies will run out, and as the FT also notes:
Oil consumption today is more concentrated in high-value uses and in areas where there is no substitute, like road or air freight and maritime shipping. These are load-bearing economic activities, less price sensitive than discretionary or consumption-oriented drivers of growth. Once disrupted they are likely to cascade through the economy.
And as they add:
Modern, wealthy and service-based economies do not have an escape hatch. With transport disruptions, their supply chains become vulnerable and disruptions unpredictable. The longer the two blockades continue, the more likely a crisis-like adjustment in the world's leading economies, rather than the slow-growth recession we have been used to.
That's what we're facing. It will be grim. Cancelled holidays will be the least of our worries. And the world is in denial about it.
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Yes, the majority of people are completely delusional. In a time of crisis they will double down on that even.
I am used to being called an idiot and fear monger since I’ve been following the ecological crisis and the crisis of industrial civilisation for three decades or so.
Humans do not like confronting the ugly side of reality. I don’t either, tbh, but I find it impossible to ignore.
The obsession people have with their holidays is a sign that the media is doing its job successfully and the public is thoroughly distracted.
Indeed – I was having this same conversation with my son yesterday. Cancelled holidays will be the least of our worries.
Yes much to agree with. It feels a bit like the situation before the Great Financial Crisis – you know things are going to get a lot worse but everyone is carrying on oblivious to the danger. Your discussion with the two young people could probably be replicated all over the place. In one sense you cannot blame them as the government is being totally irresponsible by burying its head in the sand and pretending everything will turn out fine. I thought the idea that they want refineries in the UK to produce more jet oil was ridiculous. Any fuel available should be prioritised for essential transport not aviation. A problem is as someone I know said “People have got used to air travel and do not want to give it up” My suggestion that they get unused to it was not received positively. Personally, I have only made two trips by air for leisure and several work related. I quite like flying itself but have not flown for some years and have no intention of doing so.
The government is totally irresponsible on the current crisis and its implications. And yet it still thinks expanding air travel is a good idea!!! In all this government is inept, irresponsible and out of its depth. But who could take over?
We have collectively been pushed off the building already. We can reassure ourselves as we fall “so far, so good” – and perhaps people have an inbuilt optimism bias that prefers to hope for the best – but reality will reassert itself eventually and a reckoning is coming.
Agreed
I’ve seen this idea that trouble is in store from June onwards and it’s based on a false deduction. IEA members agree to maintain a petroleum reserve of 3 months consumption, so the scaremongers have counted 3 months from the end of February and written a scary article about what might happen from June onwards. They’ve assumed that inventory draw down is the only supply.
20 to 20% of supoply is diappearing.
Resrerves will have gone.
The Strait will not be open. If it is it will take year to recover.
Only an idiot denies this. Stop lying is my advice to you.
‘Phoney war’ etc., I can only keep it short and sweet: ‘Yep!’.
I think (no evidence, just my opinion, YMMV, Your Mileage May Vary) that the Iran war is connected in people’s consciousness with a temporary rise in the cost of motor fuel for their cars, and that’s it.
The idea of supply issues, rationing, empty forecourts, cancelled flights? Nope.
That diesel prices might affect other prices because of haulage costs? Nope.
Any delayed price/availability/shortage effects such as with food due to global fertiliser shortages? Nope.
Any consequences for poorer global south nations? As with climate change, nope.
This blinkered attitude is due to 2 things:-
1. Psychological self-protection. If I can’t change it, I’ll pretend it isn’t happening, life is bad enough already for low income families in low income neighbourhoods where every family already faces financial and health and care crises. (I do this myself, every time I watch a whodunnit on TV or listen to an audio book because I can’tcope with more bad news.)
2. The MSM and our “leaders” deliberately keep the truth from us.
But if Cassandra shuts up, or is shut up by others, then we are in deep doodoo.
KUTGW! (but don’t forget to have down time with the birds and the reeds and the big big Ely sky.)
Much to agree with
Quite. Best to never underestimate the power of denial….
I remember & I am sure being older than me Richard must remember the oil crisis of th e70’s
That involved a cut of 7% in global production, we are now looking at 20% plus nitrogen fertilise and Helium.
As Slartiblartfast put it, ‘I dont know about you but it scares me fartless’
What of course particularly scares me is the lack of response from our or indeed most other European Governments, reserves are being released but nothing is done to reduce consumption
🙂
This chimes very much with you, Richard.
#323: They first make mad | Surplus Energy Economics
Much to agree with.
Growth has historically acted as a form of economic redemption. First, tt has allowed societies, governments, businesses and individuals to recover from mistakes, crises and even catastrophic destruction, as seen in post-war reconstruction. More broadly, it has sustained the belief that each generation would be better off than the last. Second, growth has enabled rising prosperity without overt conflict, allowing some to accumulate wealth without visibly making others worse off. That combination has underpinned social stability. Ans now it does not. And we do not know what to do now.
‘This combination of falsehoods and deception is, however, deeply dangerous. ‘<p>
But that seems to be the way BBC operate now – it must be officially sanctioned.<p>
Badenoch said on R4 this morning that these ‘festival of hate marches every weekend go past synagogues seething with antisemitism’. It is forbidden for the interviewer to say – ‘they have never gone past synagogues’ and ‘there are many jews on the demonstrations'<p>
In other words there is the narrative of the day or the week – its not journalism. The narrative on the coming fuel shortages price rises etc is that – we don’t want people to buy – carry on spending as normal. Its not clear why that is a sensible thing to do – even form the government’s own perpective
John Rees of the Palestine Coalition has written to Mark Rowley requesting a retraction of his comments regarding the marches passing synagogues and claims of anti-semitism. This puts Rowley in a tricky situation. If he does make a retraction, he is undermining any case to ban the marches. If he refuses to make a retraction, then the Palestine Coalition might take legal action against him, thus further exacerbating the situation. Interesting times.
I hope the Coalition do pursue the case.
And BBC still saying nothing about the Moslem man who was stabbed. But that would spoil their narrative.
Yes, it does feel odd, waiting for the proverbial to hit our local fan, I wondered if the phoney war felt like this. Hearing Brewers Fare have pulled out of Wales, I wondered why didn’t they wait for all the home holiday makers that will head for this country as going further becomes risky in terms of travel disruption.
Good on those young people for wanting to cycle to Ibiza. I’m sure the adventures they’d have would be far more interesting than actually being on Ibiza anyway, which, given your fuel predictions, is likely to be a bit quiet.
On the bright side, I dearly hope that we will see far fewer of those ostentatious vast motorhomes towing small cars on the roads here in Somerset. I live in hope.
🙂
I too have had experience of suggesting that holidays involving flights may not happen, and been poo-pooed. But why is nobody mentioning cruises, which are still being heavily advertised? Fuel-guzzling and polluting, surely they should simply be cancelled asap.
They look like hell to me
I think that depends! I didn’t think I would like a cruise, but we took my mum to Norway in 2018 when she was 87 and past the point of managing suitcases, rail stations, etc. Fred Olsen suited us perfectly. Smaller ships (1000 or so), and a totally British country house hotel atmosphere. Lots of Axminster carpets, sofas and real paintings on the wall (the Olsen family art collection in fact). I fully agree with you, though, that the mega ship 4000 upwards ships look like a block of flats on a barge and give a totally horrible impression. So as I said, I think it depends on which cruise and you can’t just write them all off as the same. Same as anything – some trains are wonderful while others are not. Talking of trains, why is the UK now unable to make a comfortable train seat? 4 hours on LNER was agony, and First Class was just the same as Standard.
Re you last point – that is totally baffling
As baffling as I would find and Enlish country hotel – on land or sea!
We like our Fred Olsen cruises. I have looked into the impact of them. A ship is by far the most energy efficient way to travel beaten only by a bicycle and walking. Olsen also sail from Scotland (for us) so just a taxi and no flights, etc. They now use low sulphur marine diesel, which is much less polluting than the old heavy marine oil. Two out of the three ships can now plugin to port electricity and switch off the engines when docked. However most ports have not invested in providing that facility as yet. In terms of overall impact I had this discussion with a German friend. Her two week trip to Japan came in at around triple our two week cruise in total carbon per person. Obviously you could argue nobody should go anywhere, but that seems rather unrealistic and hair shirt.
In January, I booked a Jet2 flight to Greece to keep company with a friend who, like me, has recently been widowed. I’ve been expecting to hear that the flight has been cancelled. But, instead, I’m still getting from Jet2 several emails a week offering bigger and bigger discounts on a whole range of flights and foreign package holidays. No hint of an impending crisis.
Anent the ’70s oil crisis, I seem to recall measures like fuel rationing and motorway speed limits of 50mph.
That would indicate sales are down and they are desperate to fill their planes. Be prepared for a sudden fall into administration and having to make alternative plans.
And the immediate cause of catastrophe (in the context of climate change of course) is the insane control of Trump & Netanyaho & their close circle, fixated on the destruction of lives and homes for no cogent reason.
I suspect that the Government are saying and doing very little in public because of the local elections. Once they’re over, maybe they will be more forthcoming. (But perhaps they’ll then unleash a leadership contest!). Then, maybe, there will be a sudden awakening.
Some speculation – I wonder how rationing would be implemented; for petrol/diesel – on an app I suspect. I find it difficult to see that working perfectly on roll-out. How much would we get per week, 10-15 litres? Not enough for regular commuters; so we’ll be back to working from home if at all possible. Food is another issue and I cannot see how a fair system could be implemented that the elderly and infirm would be able to use.
One essential we will all need, after the basics for life have been met, is up to date, regular and reliable information. At present, I listen to the radio/tv and, for me, it falls a long way short.
I have been concerned for some time, as some others on the left have, that the partisan authoritarian restrictions on Palestine sympathy and action is ‘mission creep’, boiling the frog of democracy degree by degree. The fixing of the courts, the arrests, the partisan nature of police forces, every single step is in a certain direction. We now have the absurd spectacle of Starmer ramping up the stabbing of two Jews (not the Muslim) into a massive moral panic about ‘antisemitism’ such that more draconian measures seem about to be imposed. Antisemitism, like Islamophobia, is real and is part of the general racism/xenophobia pushed by the far right and influencing maybe 20% of UK citizens. These utterances and actions of Starmer have a special flavour, however, as it is targeting ANY public criticism of Israeli genocide. If you include all the other imposed surveillance etc, and likely restrictions caused by the Hormuz crisis, what’s left of UK democracy is under extreme threat, with the far right waiting in the wings, financed by the uber-rich and the USA far right.
Much to agree with
I agree with Badenoch in a way -it is a bit like the 1930s Misinformation, libels , legitimation and normalisation of hatred, backed by conspiracy theories. and accusations ‘they’ are causing all the problems. BUT where I don’t agree is that these things are much more directed at pro-Palestinians, refugees and Muslims in general.
Farage’s threat to put asylum seekers in constituencies which vote Green is the clearest expression so far of their Fascist ideology and incitement of hatred.
and if we want an example- an extreme example- of cutting off oil, it’s Cuba, where life is grinding to halt and suffering.
I don’t think all countries are in denial, seeing that some, such as Vietnam, put working from home and other oil use reducing measures in place, not long after the war in The Middle East began.
I heard someone from one of the travel companies saying that the British like their holidays and that things would basically be Ok and I think many in this country have a sense of entitlement to things, even in a crisis .
I’m 66 and throughout my life have read books, as long back as the seventies, saying that we should try to transition from oil reliance due to the instability of areas from which it comes but of course short-term politicians didn’t listen and their obsession with growth and GNP blinded them to things.
In the end, if so called growth uses up finite resources it is really shrinkage as you have less left.We are at the mercy of nature and the environment .
In our society huge amounts of food are wasted and with it the oil, fertiliser, water and other valuable resources neede to produce it, while others starve for lack of the basics.Good to use cafes etc that make use of unwanted but reuseable food.
Think of all the plastic bottles thrown away [single use] that are oil based, now floating in the sea with residues in our bodies.
Should Farage and his lot ever get in power it will be disastrous with his love of oil and lack of concern for the natural world.So many in all parties have absolutely no imagination and will carry on as we are until nature stops us.Maybe if the crisi does hit, we may be shocked into better ways.
Thank you
Mark
My husband doesn’t ‘do politics’, but I was discussing the potential problems to come and I mentioned fuel rationing may be needed. His reaction was ‘don’t be ridiculous, everyone has the right to put fuel in their car’. He couldn’t answer when I asked what would happen if there were no fuel.
I lived through the 70’s. I remember the 50 mph speed limits, and the fact that most people stuck to them. I don’t think fuel rationing came in, but I remember my mother getting a book of something in anticipation of rationing to come.
The idea of a “right’ to fuel is interesting
I would argue that a right to household heat does exist, but to care fuel I would not in the case of absolute shortage
Shortage is beyond most of our experimnece. Hence the reaction,
I can just remember that the UK did have petrol rationing during the Suez crisis, (from 17 December 1956 until 14 May 1957). It was introduced because the Suez Canal disruption caused fuel supply problems, and it was ended once canal traffic resumed and stocks were judged satisfactory. But back then our dependence on cars was slight. I kept those petrol rationing certificates long after they became worthless.
Now it seems we will need them for fuel and food this time. It would be really good to see those responsible being held to account (but that will never happen…. but I can dream, just as others have done….)
As Michael Flanders and Donald Swann sang more than half a century ago…
Peek-a-boo, I can’t see you; everything must be grand.
Boo-ka-pee, you can’t see me, as long as I’ve got my head in the sand.
Peek-a-boo, it may be true : there’s something in what you said.
But there’s far too much trouble in everyday life. I just bury my head.
(The Ostrich)
NB The final line of the song revealed that the bird in question was burying its head in the sand of a French nuclear testing ground.
🙂
Being a Cassandra may not be popular but is appreciated by many who care to think.
From Steve Keen
Dont watch just before bed!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OU-nDL7lDt8
Did you see Cory Doctorow’s optimistic(ish) piece, Richard?
Pluralistic: Demand destruction vs fuel-superseding infrastructure (04 May 2026) – Pluralistic: Daily links from Cory Doctorow
I will try to take a look
Reminiscent of the start of 2020 and the start of Covid. I was working for NHS Digital and for about 3 weeks before the working from home directive came we were being told to be prepared by taking our laptops home every night and if we weren’t used to working from home to do a trial. I remember it vividly including the endless hand washing because we thought it might protect us. We knew lockdown was coming but just not when.
I wish I had confidence we have a more competent government, but it feels like they have their heads in the clouds and are in complete denial. Loss of holidays is less serious, but insufficient food and fuel for essential workers/businesses is much more concerning. I always thought we studied history to learn from it, but it seems we never learn. It’s not going to be pretty but I’m glad I live in a beautiful part of the country with a very functional community, but where is the leadership when this house of cards comes tumbling down?
Starmer’s “government” response to Trump’s Iran war crimes, has, and will have, so many parallels to A B de Pfeffel Johnson’s response to Covid 19.
His obsession with weaponising antisemitism to deal with serious supply-chain problems, is about as useful a remedy as herd immunity was for Covid eradication in an unvaccinated population.
He is dreadful as are most of his cabinet. And as a long term Green I am shocked by the anti Semitic pile on Zack is recieving. The Green Party isn’t perfect, but neither is it full of racists and anti semites. Very convenient to deflect from the real issues. And sadly the complete lack of plan for what is inevitable.
The fun will start even if the Straits are open.
I remember leaving the Gulf with crude,destination, South Africa, ship cruising at economic rate.
We were diverted to Australia, same speed,our cargo had changed hands.
Never got there,new orders,now Texas.
Never got to Texas,new orders,Amsterdam.
Port of discharge,Fawley.
Trading took place as we sailed.
I find it really hard to believe that the current set of leaders are really this incompetent, it’s like the whole thing is being engineered, in order to receive the benefits for themselves and their buddies, they need to sow the chaos first. Society gets poorer, funny how they don’t!
It’ s already started in the USA ironically.
https://apnews.com/article/spirit-airlines-trump-bailout-bankruptcy-37a4818e1b71c0905d022f669d85948c
Regarding the Met Gala, I heard (On French TV) of proposed boycott and protests, but none were reported. Apparently Meryl Streep and Zendaya either refused to compare or boycotted, publicly, but it has all been quite discreet. The Mayor usually/always goes, but Mamdani didn’t. Well done.
Then I read about the ultimate boycott. Jeff Bezos himself! Well done Jeff!
I agree that a lot of people are oblivious to the long term effects of the current wars around the world. I personally get pretty fed up after about 10 minutes of watching any major news network and i am pretty sure they bombard us with the same headlines constantly, purposely, so we get to a point where we just turn it off and no longer care and then they can continue to do whatever they please until the next election when you will all vote for another muppet thats going to ‘fix’ the mistakes of the last one again and again and again. I also have a holiday booked and despite the oil situation and even the war i homestly cannot wait to get out of the country for a week.
A propos John Griffin’s post above, this is what is in the King’s Speech this coming Wednesday.
Digital ID, the scandalous Courts legislation, SEND (‘special educational needs & disabilities’), energy and utilities – energy independence, state threats and terrorism, public procurement reform and much more.
Download the whole list here: https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-10585/CBP-10585.pdf
I agree, we are being steam rollered (at a pace) through a whole gamut of changes that are taking our democracy away.
And it appears that (Hazel Murphy) Zack Polanski is not going to be allowed to succeed sufficiently to become a government in 2029 – or before. As with Corbyn, there appears to be an international (dark forces) determination to deny him election success. There are plenty of Mandelsons, not so vocal, doing their best every day to ensure he and his party is not elected. They will have a big file of stuff the mainstream media, Phillips and Kuennsberg will be only too happy to smear him with.
I wish more people would watch and even support Double Down News which is revealing a lot of these crimes against our democracy.
Thank you
I might do a post on that tomnorrow