There is news as I write this morning that Donald Trump might have been subject to a shooting incident last night, but the details are unclear, and whilst I condemn all violence and attacks on anyone in a position of power, that is not why I am interested in Trump this morning.
I am, instead, much more interested in the fact that, during the course of yesterday, Trump cancelled JD Vance's visit to Islamabad, Pakistan, which would have permitted the resumption of peace talks with Iran.
Trump's excuses appear to be weak. The suggestion was made that too much time is being expended on these talks with too little progress.
The implication that these talks are taking place far too close to Iran, because Pakistan is its neighbour, was apparent in what was said. It would seem that Trump thinks that is just too far to go for peace.
And Trump claimed these talks were unnecessary because the USA held all the cards in this negotiation, when, glaringly, nothing could be further from the truth. It is Iran that has everything to gain from the delay. The US can only look weak and compromised, and, meanwhile, the rest of the world looks on, confused and angry at the consequences of American inaction.
Trump has suggested that Iran can “call us any time they want”, hinting in the process that he thinks that it is Iran's job to concede in this war, but the reality is very different indeed. Although Iran is undoubtedly suffering as a consequence of what is happening and will be suffering a high cost as a consequence of this, the reality is that the US cannot recommence hostilities without deeply prejudicing its own strategic military reserves.
Meanwhile, without success in delivering peace, the likelihood of the world turning both on the USA and, particularly, on Israel (as I note in this morning's video), as the two states that are creating mayhem, economic pain, and real suffering for countries around the world as a direct, and totally avoidable, consequence of their gross folly can only grow.
What happens now?
As I predicted late last week, very little will happen now. Trump did exactly what I expected. He called off the talks, offering a lame excuse at best for his inaction and dithering, and all because this process of perpetuated stalemate is the only strategy he has left.
My fear and expectation are that this stalemate will continue for some time to come. That is precisely the reason why it falls to others to take action at this moment, and they have all the options available to them. A sanctions regime on Israel is the best available action. At a purely strategic level, with the goal of delivering world stability, this is now essential. At an ethical level, it is completely justified.
Such coincidences do not always occur. When they do, they must be acted upon.
If this does not happen, the cost of this war might grow considerably beyond even the worst current expectations.
Clear thinking, peaceful sanctions, and deliberate messaging on the unacceptability of the actions of both Israel and the USA are required now. Tolerance of what they are doing can only represent failure.
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You are becoming an apologist for the Iranian regime.
Politely, don’t be stupid
It is possible to dislike the Iranian regime and condemn Israeli racist abuse.
What about that do you not understand?
@Arif Mamood
It is possible to do five things at one time simultaneously:
One can support the Palestinian people
One can support the Jewish people
One can disdain Benjamin Netanyahu and all his actions
One can disdain Sunni Hamas and all their actions
One can disdain Shia Hezbollah and all their actions
It is possible to all of this at one time as many do even for a simpleton like myself.
Whose side are you on Sunni Hamas or Shia Hezbollah? You must pick one because it seems that Hamas and Hezbollah cannot stand each other. The world is a very strange place.
It is absurd that Israel’s MAIN trading partner is the EU. Even the threat of no trade from the EU would force Net & yahoo’s hand. It would stop Israel murdering people (I am tired of people calling it “killing” – it’s not, it’s murder) and it would force Israel to retreat from Lebanon & Gaza. Furthermore, there is very little that the USA could do, quite the reverse, there are a growing number of voices in the USA questioning the funding of Israel by the USA. What is this about? don’t murder people, don’t invade other countries. FFS this is not hard stuff to understand (but apparently so for politicos).
Dare I suggest Richard that you are giving Trump too much credit? It really is difficult to deal with a head of state who lies to quite the extent that Trump does, and I think there’s an argument that you are putting too much weight in what he says.
I was reading the events of this weekend somewhat differently. Iran has said quite clearly they will not negotiate until the US lifts its blockade. Trump has refused as he believes it is putting pressure on Iran. It does, but if we’re playing a game of blockade chicken, the halt in global energy supplies will wreck the global economy before Iran feels compelled to cave.
My reading here is that Aragchi was not in Islamabad for negotiations, but rather building regional support as was stated by Iran when he left. Trump thought he might be able to jump start talks without lifting the blockade and sent his real estate agents out but Aragchi was already on his way to Oman, so Trump had to call it off, and pretended he was the one making the running. He wants to end this, but he wants to end it and look like he won. Iran is having none of it.
You may be correct, but I think Iran is simply sticking by their stated policy, while Trump is saying anything he can to make it look like he is the one taking the initiative.
Noted
A torrential of US comment on social media this morning alleging the shooting was staged. Lots of detail not initially in news reports plus the incident was immediately used to justify the postponed ballroom and bunker construction.
“Donald Trump might have been subject to a shooting incident last night”
Now Trump knows first hand, or should know, what many school children have experienced in the violent shooting attacks in schools across the US.
I think that Netanyahu, Trump, and the Iranian leaders are all la scum de la scum.
The impending disasters from their acts will probably, finally, harm the interests of China, faced with having to sell fertilizer and oil to India to prevent mass starvation and loss of drug manufacture capacity, and disruption of more trade. And then, perhaps, the Chinese will propose some terms that will permit Iran to re-open the Strait of Hormuz, that will foster the re-start of idled oil field pumps, that will perhaps by Christmas restore some stability to international trade.
I have other wishes, but I hope that my untyped wishes will come true.