Scotland, as I notice every time I go there, is very decidedly another country, and one to which most people in England have rarely visited or never been.
Politically, this difference is very apparent. This is the latest opinion polling data for the forthcoming Holyrood elections, from The National (of course):
It seems certain that Scotland will be electing a pro-independence government in May. There may be an SNP majority. If it falls short of that, some form of alliance with the Scottish Greens (a separate party to that in England and Wales) should deliver its agenda, which John Swinney now says includes a referendum in 2028, which is why everyone should be paying attention.
These are the estimated voting intentions:
52% will be voting for independence parties. Only 25% will be voting for the far right in the form of the Tories and Reform, when that figure in England is likely to be 40%.
Those with an interest in where politics might go in England and Wales might need to look at what is happening in Scotland. It is setting the agenda for change, as is its media. The National is the leading left-of-centre, radical newspaper in the UK right now, and from today it is on special offer at £20 for a year. It's worth much more than that:
Amongst other things, that's a year's worth of my Monday column for £20, but that is far too narrow a view. This paper has a courage few others share. Just its interntaional coverage is worth £20. Give it a look.
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The challenge isn’t to visit Scotland its to understand it.
I dont profess to Understand Scotland BUT I do know its different and what plays well in Westminster doesnt necessarily play well in Edinburgh.
A Reform dominated Westminster government could mean a crisis for The Union
I can’t help thinking that, at least some of, the vote for the SNP is simply a rejection of the main stream parties, rather than positive support for independence. Unfortunately, in England, we don’t have such an option 🙁
You have forgotten Tim that in Scotland is not about a single tranferable party. There are dividing lines.
Polling regularly shows that support for Independence is, by a margin that cannot be explained by statistical sampling error, several points higher than support for the SNP.
And why not? Green supporters in Scotland almost invariably support independence as well
You’re not seeing the wood for the trees. The “mainstream” parties aren’t reflecting Scotland’s politics. Think of the current situation as a precursor of how Scotland’s politics would be/will be post-indy and you’ll find greater insight I think.
And to Richard, thanks for the support and for the recent article in the National. To the wise words of the Bob I’d add Louis Macneice’s lines, which seem apposite currently:
“Work your hands from day to day, the winds will blow the profit.
The glass is falling hour by hour, the glass will fall forever,
But if you break the bloody glass you won’t hold up the weather.”
Written towards the end of the 1930s. Very similar times to today I’d say.
🙂
That’s a steal ! Been an independence supporter from the cradle, and subscriber of The National for years, it’s where I found Prof RM.
Re Scotland could be so much better if we had a real SNP, not these devolution managers post Alec. Others like Believe in Scotland are doing the spadework.
‘Aye’ is stuck on a wobbly 50+% seems currently boosted by the Reform effect on Tory – Labour votes (Reform effect does reveal who you might find amongst Labour and Tory voters).
I’m originally from Essex, but lived and worked in Scotland for most of my life. I left a year and a half ago to come back to England to look after my Mum, who has now sadly passed away, so I am considering moving back as that is where all my friends and colleagues are.
Most of them are wanting to stay in the Union though – they would be askance to know that I actually voted for independence at the last referendum. My reasoning then as now, is that I want to reduce the ability for the British Government to meddle internationally alongside the US. I would be delighted to have the nuclear sub base in Loch Long shutdown, for example.
The problem though is, even with a pro-Indy majority, how is John Swinney going to deliver a referendum in 2028? We’ve been here several times before, both with Swinney and Nicola Sturgeon and each time they’ve assumed Scotland needs Westminster’s consent, which in the current political climate where ethics and the rule of law seem to have been chucked oot the windae, won’t happen. It’s going to need any Scottish Government to be proactive; they could for instance have pushed for a de-facto referendum through the List Vote in the upcoming Scottish elections, but failed to do so. I simply don’t see Swinney as the man to wrest control of Scotland’s destiny away from Westminster.
I share your concerns.
If there were a stronger majority for Yes, not a wobbly 50+% it would be harder to deny. The split suits the status quo.
The SNP executive could develop a grassroots activism approach, resolve the currency question, use the time to build public understanding, it’s been proposed along with many other good ideas.
One good idea was to sort out their accounts. They were implored. Look where that got them!! Ruined the party.
They are strangely uninterested, and such ideas just fall into the SNP executive black hole. Radio Silence. Different at the grassroots level.
The grassroots needs to shout
@ Philip Maughan,
I’m not convinced that Holyrood elections are the place for de facto referendums, because who runs Scotland could be compromised.
Westminster elections are the arena for that, but not under the SNP banner that lets them hog the Short Money. It would have to independence candidates, drawn from all pro independence parties and, perhaps, unaligned, high profile candidates from no party at all.
So you think elections for what many in Scotland think to be a colonial parliamanet is where the future of Scotland should be decided. Really? Why? Please justify such an abdsurd suggestion
The SNP leadership and the Scottish Government’s led by them in recent years have come up with a variety of progressive sounding policies…..land reform, community wealth building, Scottish Government bonds, wellbeing economy, to name a few. All of them have turned out to be nothing more than labels on an empty jar. Posturing not real, substantial progressiveness. Their approach to independence lacks the same real substance.
Richard, I think you favour Scottish independence and must therefore believe Scotland can thrive economically as an independent country. I would be interested in hearing the reasons to believe that, maybe not in this thread but perhaps a future blog.
I have written about it many times. Just think energy