In another surreal overnight twist to the war in the Middle East, Trump has declared that he thinks it might be over in 2 to 3 weeks, whether or not the USA gets a deal.
The evidence that Trump is getting bored with the conflict that he started and is looking for a way out is very strong. As was always expected, he will chicken out in the end. That said, the possibility that everything will then return to normal is remote in the extreme.
In another twist in the last 24 hours, Trump berated the UK at the same time as he announced his delight at the planned trip of King Charles to the USA later this month. The dichotomy will not have gone unnoticed in the world, particularly in the Middle East.
Whilst France is pouring scorn on what Trump is doing, and the far-right government in Italy is refusing the US the right to refuel aircraft destined for the Middle East at American airbases in the country, not only is the UK providing a base for B-52 bombers, it is also providing its implicit diplomatic support for the regime in the USA by arranging a state visit in the midst of an illegal war.
The messaging is clear. As ever with a Labour government, an attempt is being made to triangulate the situation so that all sides can be kept happy, with the consequence that none is. The pretence that the special relationship with the USA is continuing is maintained, even though that relationship should be severed. The claim that this war has nothing to do with the UK is simultaneously shot to pieces by the permission granted for UK airbases to be used to support the illegal assaults on Iran. And no one in the UK is left in any doubt about the fact that the UK government is creeping, as ever, to the occupant of the White House, however obnoxious they might be.
This has consequences. As Donald Trump said yesterday, Europe "can go and get its own oil" from the Gulf states in the future. He did, of course, ignore the fact that we, and everyone else, were doing just that until he intervened. The problem that we now have is entirely of his creation, and the creation of Benjamin Netanyahu, but we would be unwise to ignore the fact that whilst those states who have firmly stood up against the USA might be permitted by Iran to use the Strait of Hormuz again, if there is oil and gas to collect after the USA and Israel have finished their campaign, countries like the UK might still be blocked from access because of their implicit, tacit, or practical support for the USA during its campaign against Iran.
My suggestion is that Iran might seek to use the weapon of sanctions in a fashion akin to that previously used against it, meaning that not only will it block the passage of ships serving the UK from passing through the Strait of Hormuz when the immediate conflict is over, but might also sanction otherwise apparently friendly states that acted as an intermediary in that case, seeking to export oil from the Gulf for onward delivery to the UK via an intermediate port. The Strait of Hormuz is, in other words, going to remain a weapon for a long time to come, and to presume that the UK will be able to access oil and gas from anywhere in the Gulf when it has been an accomplice in acts of destruction in the Middle East is naive in the extreme. There is no reason why Iran should forgive and forget, and I do not think it will do so.
What is the consequence of all this? It is that Starmer is likely to have pulled off the UK's biggest foreign policy failure since the Suez Crisis in the 1950s. He will have simultaneously alienated the USA, Iran, and the British public. As an exercise in triangulation, that is some achievement, and we will all bear the cost of it.
Meanwhile, as I noted in yesterday's video, there is no indication that the UK is preparing any sensible plans for the consequences of this war, even if it were to finish within 2 to 3 weeks, as Donald Trump is now suggesting, and those plans will be needed. To believe that all will return to normal after disruption on this scale would be an act of supreme folly. The economic consequences of this war are going to last for some time, not least because there is no indication that Israel will give up just because Donald Trump has, and if the USA continues to fund its activities, hostilities will outlast any supposed end to US involvement.
As the saying goes, the fat lady is a long way from singing as yet.
Thanks for reading this post.
You can share this post on social media of your choice by clicking these icons:
There are links to this blog's glossary in the above post that explain technical terms used in it. Follow them for more explanations.
You can subscribe to this blog's daily email here.
And if you would like to support this blog you can, here:
Buy me a coffee!
It’s become apparent in the last 5 years that there are some names and accusations that you can make which simply don’t pass the test of being meaningfully useful.
Labelling someone a fascist inspired the song “We’re all far right now”
Calling out someone for racism when they want to stop the small boat migrants doesn’t wash.
And now we have Ed Davey, Jeremy Corbyn and many others calling out Trump for doing things illegal under international law. It’s illegal they say as if that will make the perpetrator stop and hand themselves in. They think international law comes with the same enforcement as national law when it’s just a suite of agreements, resolutions and treaties.
What these politicians should do is appeal to the Prime Directive: as the not yet born great captain said “it is a philosophy… and a very correct one. History has proven again and again that whenever mankind interferes with a less developed civilisation, no matter how well-intentioned that interference may be, the results are invariably disastrous.” If they could make a case based on this, which they can’t as they’ve no knowledge of history alas, they might cut through.
Naming an evil is a necessary part of ridding ourselves of it.
Not enough, but necessary
What an earth is ‘Yahya Sinwar’ talking about? Does anyone know?
Talking of stopping the boats is a racist act caused by the previous racist act of public figures blaming immigrants for public service failure when in fact it is austerity that is the problem.
‘Can’t recall such a song as “We’re all far right now” in the top 40.
International law was at one time taken more seriously than it is now. It’s just that we have criminal now as the ‘leader of the free world’ because democracy has not been protected. It is OK for people to remind us all of the past – much better than validating the criminal with a visit by your head of state (will Charlie influence the Orange Parrot – nah – he’s Putin’s man, for sure).
And what’s this bollocks about ‘less developed civilisations’? It is America that has gone back to some sort of primordial state treating the world as the last great frontier and using self appointed ‘Manifest Destiny’ to lay claim to other people’s stuff. And this was before Trump and why they still have their greedy eyes on China – another refusenik of the ‘American Dream’ . I would not call Iran ‘less developed’ – they are just different – not ‘less’.
Look at the U.S. penal system and that around 10 million Americans believe in Armageddon and Jesus coming back for revenge and kicking out his Muslims brothers from Jerusalem. And Iran is ‘theocratic’ whilst Trump has regular prayers with Armageddon Evangelists?
If ‘Yahya Sinwar’s post was an attempt at humour, it was lost on me. For this is not funny at all.
Yahya got banned for their effort. They won’t be appearing again under that name. I agree with you.
“And Iran is ‘theocratic’ whilst Trump has regular prayers with Armageddon Evangelists?”
Does Trump even know any prayers or is he just mumbling words he was unable to memorize?
Last time I checked, it is difficult to read a prayer off a teleprompter while engaging in a prayer circle. LOL!
Just to be clear, Yahya Sinwar was seriously referencing “The Prime Directive”, a concept applied by the United Federation of Planets in Star Trek. It’s not a thing, unless you think Star Trek is actually real.
I hope Yahya gets the help they so clearly need.
Interesting choice of pseudonym.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yahya_Sinwar
Oh….
I suspect that the fat lady is probably just settling down with a cuppa and a good book and her outfit for her singing performance is either still in the wardrobe or maybe yet to be collected from the dry cleaners 🙂
Craig
“History is women following along afterwards with the bucket”. Alan Bennett
If either Starmer or KC3 want an easy way out of the State visit nonsense, then they can roll out the “diplomatic cold” – the King does have cancer after all.
If we instead sent the brother, formerly known as Prince, he could fit in that interview with the FBI at the same time and save on jet fuel. He and the convicted felon would have plenty to reminisce about.
News from the White House is beginning to look more like Lewis Carroll’s Mad Tea Party every day, with Trump as a cross between the March Hare, the Hatter and the tyrannical Queen of hearts. Time for the 25th.
That there are not 80 Labour MPs prepared to serve the national interest and force Starmer’s hand, is something I will find hard to forgive. Meanwhile, Starmer is up to his autocratic Stalinist tricks again, suspending the whip from Karl Turner MP, because he defended jury trials. RIP our attempt at a sovereign UK democracy.
One of the worst outputs of neoliberalism is the Disneyfication of everything, including thought itself.
FtF is a place to feed the mind with truth.
The US stock market has had a rally of 4% from the lows, West Texas Intermediate Oil prices for May delivery are down 10%. One might be forgiven for thinking it was “Peace in our Time”.
In the real world, Singapore spot diesel (my preferred indicator) just traded at all-time highs today – ie. NO 10% drop. The ships are not sailing. Trump is still floundering……. and people are still being killed.
Agreed
An absolutely spot on point about the inappropriate use of Anthony Giddens ‘The Third Way’ philosophy. I mean honestly – trying to use a philosophy that pretends to be about consensus when it is obviously enabling only one point of view, a philosophy that claims to get rid of the conflicts of interest – in the middle of military aggression – I mean, what a sick joke.
And we talk about how communism created fanatics. It appals me just how well-drilled these Labour politicians are with this Gidddens ‘beyond politics’ bullshit – Third Way apparatchiks whose loyalty would not be out of step with Stalin’s party goons.
Dire……………………
Might the recent and current political fashion of discarding those who question or disagree with the party leadership/dominant policies be a contributory factor in the unanalytical and narrow attitude nature of our political parties?
Yes. All progress is dependent upon the existence of unreasonable people, and current politics appears entirely unable to accept their presence.
At least 2 papers (Telegraph and Mail) have now reported that the English domestic cricket season will be impacted by a rationing of the red Dukes balls. Although the leather they are made with is English, they are stitched in their unique pattern in Asia and freighting them back is now too difficult / expensive. The ECB (English Cricket Board) deny these reports – and I have no means of telling whether there has been rationing or not. First attendance at a home game later in April may reveal more. I do not wish to conflate this non-issue* with real shortages eg fuel, medicines. But to show that many more aspects of our normal national lives may be impacted than first thought.
* Except for lovers of the county championship like myself!
This report appears to be absurd. Of all the things shipped from India, a few boxes of cricket balls appear to be one of the easiest to arrange and I know that all the race horses in Dubai were successfully shipped out, by air, even as the airspace over that country was closing in the very early days of this war. But, if these rags have noticed that fascist war has consequences, that might be of use.
Iran strategy is to threaten oil production facilities in the Gulf if Trump carries out his intention to bomb their civilian infrastructure. They seem to hope the world will force the US to stop.
Iran needs China so is letting their ships through. But other countries like Pakistan are already feeling the pinch, hence the Pakistani minister’s visit to China. Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey are also in the discussion. They have all called for a ceasefire. Trump though needs a ‘victory’ – mainly for his home audience. But will Netanyahu agree? If he doesn’t, he has a pull with ( a diminishing ) part of the MAGA base.
The bottom line for most of the world is keeping the straits open. That means persuading Trump not to continue bombing and provoking the Iranian response. I hope there is scope for enough nations -Europe, China, Arab states -to do that using some sort of ‘off-ramp’.
On the 19th March Britain joined with other nations calling for the straits to be kept open. But the world can’t stand by if Iran attacks the Gulf oil facilities. There are no easy choices.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/joint-statement-from-the-leaders-of-the-united-kingdom-france-germany-italy-the-netherlands-and-japan-on-the-strait-of-hormuz-19-march-2026
I suspect that Netanyahu is going to deny Trump the victory that he desires. The consequences of this are very hard predict, and they range from being very good, if Netanyahu were to fall, to being dire,if as is likely Trump then uses him to pursue a proxy war with greater vigour than he has done before.
Agreed, Richard. But I take some hope at the way nations are working together in way we haven’t seen so much of lately.
Netanyahu seems to think enough bombing will make all resistance to Israel go away. The reverse is probably true. And if the US stops the supply of bombs….!
Agreed. There is the possibility that everything might change.
A couple of articles that have given me cause for thought:
– “The Empire that Never Died” by Vivify Maraposa about the City Of London and Lloyds and their need for conflict in the middle east in order to profit by it
“The Last Molecule Standing” by Shanaka Anselm Parera:
“The 2026 Iran war has exposed a concentration of industrial dependency so extreme that a single geological formation, processed through equipment manufactured by five companies, shipped through one 39-kilometre strait, simultaneously powers the production of the chips in your phone, the fertiliser in the fields that feed three billion people, the aluminium in your aircraft, the gas-to-liquids fuel in military jets, the petrochemicals in every plastic object within arm’s reach, and the desalinated water that keeps 100 million Gulf residents alive. No financial model, no supply chain risk assessment, no sovereign wealth fund stress test, and no central bank scenario analysis ever connected these dependencies into a single picture. The market priced each node independently, assigning near-zero probability to simultaneous failure. On February 28, 2026, that probability resolved to one.”
“This is not a story about oil. It is a story about molecules, about the five companies that can process them at cryogenic temperatures, about the insurance market that closed a strait before any navy could, and about the three forms of risk that the modern financial system is structurally incapable of pricing: duration measured in years of manufacturing queues, correlation hidden inside shared geological formations, and institutional learning that fades as soon as each crisis recedes. The last molecule of helium boiling off in a stranded container somewhere in the Gulf of Oman is not a metaphor. By the time the institutions responsible for pricing its scarcity finish arguing about whether this is temporary, the molecule will be gone.”
Very good
Richard Murphy and David Dimbleby singing from the same hymn sheet on the KC3 state visit . It does seem to be another instance of the British establishment trying to get the best of all possible worlds and achieving the worst.<p>
Officially ‘not being dragged into this war’, while bombers from RAF Fairford slaughtering Iranian civilians , and aircraft and troops active in gulf states – worst of both worlds.
UK so embedded in the US nuclear security state- and thinking that’s what makes us ‘great’, so we daren’t deny our bases or air space, or join single market or customs union or sanction Israel.<p>
Difficult to disagree with Richard – consequences for UK will be significant. But lessons probably wont be learned.
Richard
The most recent stats available – 2024 – say that the UK receives very little fossil fuel from the Middle East. (3% in total from Turkey and Qatar)
with 84% of our total imports coming from the US, Norway, Libya and Nigeria.
So what advantage are we gaining by upsetting our customers in the far East? because it is they who are the major c0nsumers of Iranian fossil fuels and thus the ones being disadvantaged by this ‘war’.
The United States is the main supplier of crude oil and natural gas liquids for the United Kingdom.
In 2024, some 16.2 million metric tons of crude oil were imported from the U.S. Norway Libya and Nigeria
rounded out the top four origin countries.
In 2024, crude oil and NGL imports in the UK totaled around 41.9 million metric tons.
You do realise this is a world market, don’t you?
And you do realise this is also about gas, helium, fertiliser and other products as well?
It was a small world view that got us into this mess. You appear intent on maintaining it.