As the FT has noted in an article this morning, referring to a rally that Nigel Farage held in Swindon on Thursday:
Farage told the crowd once he had made it to the stage. “I don't lack courage, I don't lack conviction, I don't lack patriotism and I don't lack determination . . . I urge and I beg you to join our people's army.”
The problem for Farage is that this is not true. As The National has reported:
Polls now suggest that Reform – once framed as the party who could smash the Westminster's two-party system to pieces – may have hit their ceiling already, just before their first major test at the Holyrood and Senedd elections.
As they add:
While Reform were polling safely in the early to mid-30s quite consistently last year, polls in recent days have consistently showed them declining.
A YouGov poll conducted from March 1 to 2 showed them attracting just 23% in Westminster voting intention – a mere two points ahead of the Greens.
So why has this started to happen? As they note
Pollster Mark Diffley, who runs the Diffley Partnership, said the decline in Reform's popularity is more obvious south of the Border than it is in Scotland, where he said it has instead "plateaued".
He said this was "always going to happen" as Reform were only ever going to be able to attract a certain portion of voters.
He spoke about research which showed the vast majority of people would never dream of voting for Reform.
"Generally speaking, on that zero to 10 scale, about 75% of people will answer zero or one or two," he said.
There is, in other words, no "people's army" supporting Farage. There is, instead, at most one quarter of the population who are willing to embrace his toxic racism as an explanation for the failure of this country and who will, as a result, support his policies of hate that will, inevitably, make everything very much worse.
Please don't get me wrong: having one quarter of the country's population supporting toxic criticism is a serious issue, and a disabling force inside the narrative that this country needs to create about a politics of care, which is the only way in which we can solve our problems. But let's not pretend that Farage is going to increase his support when the trend is downwards as a result of people having seen just what he, his absurd group of failed Tory MPs and his incompetent councils have on offer.
The reality is that Farage's promise amounts to nothing more than hot air. He will not be the first politician to be in that position, or the last. But the reality is dawning on people that not only is what he is saying deeply divisive, disruptive, and just ethically wrong, but also that it cannot solve the UK's problems because of the extraordinary costs it will impose on the country.
The likelihood of seeing Farage in Downing Street is diminishing. The fact that Reform will, almost invariably, be the leading opposition party in both Holyrood and the Senedd reinforces that prediction.
I am sorry that the people of Scotland and Wales will have to suffer the spectacle of Reform politicians seeking to disrupt the good governance of their countries, but the evidence that they will have nothing credible to say whilst doing so will be important. It will act as the warning sign that Farage can never lead a government in Westminster.
For that small mercy, we should be grateful.
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I purchased the FT Weekend paper version to discover Garage on the front page of the magazine.
I have no intention of reading the article. But why does the main stream media and the BBC keeping “promoting” him?
It seems the killer clown brand sells copy, like Alexander Johnski, or ‘Boris’ to the plebs.
Bad business is good for big business.
I suggest that Reform is the political version of marmite.
There are enough of the population who won’t touch it under any circumstances
I work with people who should know better who are sympathetic to Farage and Reform so this post is a ray of sunshine. There are still plenty of decent folk around thank goodness.
I hope the prognosis of failure for Farage is correct, but we shouldn’t become complacent, there are likely to be others, waiting in the background, who will attempt to rebuild what Farage has started. They may succeed.
I just hope the general public in UK will see the parallels between Trump and Farage’s right wing ethos and actively reject it.
Rupert Lowe, for example. He is dragging Farage further right.
This is encouraging but not surprising. So far their message doesn’t offer any real hope and the leaflets we get by post (expensive) are turgid, maybe appealing to old Tories.
Trouble is that they still look likely to be the biggest party in our silly voting system so we need to do all we can to stop them.
I noted this https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/mar/14/reform-uk-government-replace-top-civil-servants-people-aligned-policies?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
That’s depressing. It shows that Reform haven’t understood the established system of having a civil service that’s impartial but will advise ministers on how best to implement govt policy (or, in extreme cases, why a desired policy simply wouldn’t work).
Reform don’t actually understand the working class they say they represent. They don’t realise how much of the working class work in care related jobs; social work, charities, the care sector, areas Reform say are worthless and expensive. They see through Reform, especially now they have allowed in more Tories.
Agreed.
Their only appeal is to prejudice.
only slightly related but there’s a rally in Budapest today against Orbán with leaked plans for massive health service cuts a major issue. It’s national day in hungary and Orbán was due to give a speech outside parliament, I don’t know how well-attended that was but the opposition rally is massive and with a wide range of people, young and old. I don’t suppose it will get that much coverage outside Hungry though.
I don’t have the data, but I think it is the case that there have been far fewer “stop the boats” stories in the press as the acute migrant issues seem to have eased in recent months.
Surely just a coincidence that slightly less xenophobic media coverage is occurring at a time of falling Reform support….
The “small boats crisis” has been getting less attention for obvious reasons – there are fewer (if any) crossings in the winter months because it’s too dangerous. With the weather improving and the arrival of spring the boats stories have started reappearing on the front pages of the Express etc.
This may sound patronising, but I’ve been out canvassing recently and my strong impression of the minority who tell me they intend to vote for Reform is that they are shallow, superficial, naïve people, and woefully uninformed. They unquestioningly accept Farage’s story that he can fix the country, but ask them what his plans and policies are, and they are unable to say much beyond the usual racist tropes – stop the boats, deport the illegals, etc. And they certainly don’t show any signs of understanding what the policies of any alternative parties are. On the other hand, Reform is the answer on most doorsteps to the question “is there any party you’d never vote for?”
We will all need to share and build up material recording well-evidenced examples of Reform weaknesses – for example:
Reform council issues (council tax rises, councillor spats & resignations, suspensions, convictions, and general chaos, extravagance, waste.
Savings achieved in local government by the Reform DOLGE taskforce
Divisions and inconsistencies within the party – eg: Fa***e v Yusuf, Fa***e v Danny Kruger, Farage v “Honest Bob” Jenrick
The undemocratic nature of the party itself.
Links with Trump or Russia and Fa***e’s constant visits to the USA to visit convicted criminals like Trump, and Bannon.
Funding by foreign donors and Reform’s slowness in declaring it
Links with crypto- currency
Fa***e always being abroad
Fa***e’s many extra-parliamentary sources of income (“9 jobs Nigel”)
Things Fa***e has either done U-turns on, or gone silent on
Specific plans for health & social care with reference to Fa***e’s liking for “an insurance based system”
Fa***e’s misogynistic rudeness at press conferences (straight out of Trump playbook)
Particularly stupid policies that clearly haven’t been thought through, like Yusuf’s latest crazy plan to designate all Church buildings as Grade 2 listed, “to prevent them becoming mosques”. (I led a grade 2 listed chapel for 6 years, Grade 2 listing is about as welcome, and expensive, as dry rot).
Anything said by 30p Lee
Why should people vote for a party full of failed ex-Tories?
Fa***e’s views on the wars in Ukraine, Israel/Palestine, Iran
The benefits of Brexit…
What they mean by “Christian values” (insist on them showing you from a Bible) and how they propose to enforce them in law.
We try and work out how to communicate these things carefully to potential or existing Reform supporters, to persuade them that voting Reform is only slightly less dangerous than swallowing antifreeze. (That’s the difficult bit.)
Then there are the awkward questions for use when they come canvassing or in public meetings, especially requesting details on HOW they will deliver policies.
Thanks
Go for them
Hear, hear Richard
The public are beginning to see through his rhetoric. I’m still amazed how many voters switch from Reform to Green on the doorstep. Both are a protest vote and all we need to do is promote Hope instead of Hate as our protest. Everyone gets it!
Net migration is forecast to go negative in the next year or so. Who will fill all the vacancies in our public services then?
Regards…Bob
I am fairly certain after evaluating the data over recent elections involving Reform that they have a base of support in England between 10 and 15 per cent of the electorate. This is also the racist underbelly of our society and is constant. Floating voters can boost Reform’s share considerably, up to 30 per cent.
But that’s it. I’m not surprised they are sliding in the polls as people see the catastrophe that is Trump and want to distance themselves from his ‘friend’, Farage. They will be soon reduced to their rump support of 10 to 15 per cent plus between 5 and 10 per cent of floating voters.
So, I reckon a minimum of 15 per cent and a maximum of 25 per cent. Thankfully, never enough to form a government.
Scary version? They never have to, as long as they can con enough Tories into a coalition or a confidence and supply agreement. In that scenario, Lord Protector Farage steals and throws as many of our rights and protections into the bin as he can, while deflecting blame onto the Tories for everything that fails.
The upsurge in support for Reform and Farage has always been, in part, due to a rejection of the failure of the Tories and Labour, coupled with media platforming.
Some people have taken the view, “they can be no worse.” In reality, they would be a lot worse when it comes to what would happen to ordinary people.
The removal of human rights and equality legislation.
The removal of workers and tenants rights.
The commitment to a fossil fuel energy policy, based on oil and gas.
The end of any move to renewables, and the green economy.
A tax policy that would reward the rich.
A Trump/Liz Truss economic approach.
The dismantling of public services, sold off to private interests.
The move towards insurance based schemes for health and private pensions.
And on immigration, the knock on effect of their policies would hit the economy hard and leave the NHS and care services on their knees.
That’s just a taster of what to expect.
I note this morning a report that Labour have requested that the tax affairs of Richard Tice, should be investigated.
“Party chair Anna Turley wrote to the tax authority after the Sunday Times reported Tice had “avoided nearly £600,000 in corporation tax” through his property company.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyz0ep9g8lo
Tice defends himself on the basis that this is good for the economy.
“Voters should be reassured to have a successful businessman who knows how to make money… If the country had had this before maybe we would not be in the current dire economic pickle.”
For Reform, tax avoidance is good. Imagine all the loopholes they would introduce if they had power.
Reform — the Grifters party.
Excellent article Richard. Wish the Deform voters would read it.