We are, without doubt, living through a moment that might properly be described as World War III.
Israel and the USA opened an illegal war against Iran late last week.
Most Gulf states are now involved.
Yesterday, the USA sank an Iranian warship off Sri Lanka, considerably extending the geographic scope of the war.
We now know from reliable sources that some claims already made, including that Iran launched a drone strike against the UK base on Cyprus, were false. This raises questions about where the drone in question was launched from, with the possibility that this was a false flag operation by Israel clearly being left hanging as a result.
The UK has been compromised as a consequence, not least by reinforcing that base for what might be false reasons.
A few states have had the sense to criticise the USA. Spain has stood out for doing so.
To give him credit, Keir Starmer has put distance between himself and Trump, although he has hardly gone for the full Love Actually approach.
And the economic implications continue to roll. I am aware that stock markets rallied last night on rumours that Iran was seeking talks, but quite what the source of those rumours was is not clear. Oil prices continued to rise as a consequence.
Israel is sending out signals that it thinks this war will last for several more weeks. Whether food and water supplies to some Gulf states will last that long is open to question, because so much of their supply routes depend on the Strait of Hormuz.
Targeted attacks on desalination plants are also raising questions about whether current lifestyles in many states in the Middle Eastern region are now viable.
Sometime soon, the flows of refugees from this area are going to rise considerably, creating stress in many countries, including the UK.
And this, of course, is not the only consequence that is going to arise for the UK. We are already seeing a significant risk of increases in oil and gas prices. That will have implications both directly and indirectly for all households, as heating and transport costs rise, and this will affect the economic spectrum across the board.
At present, the likelihood of an inflation increase is high. The risk that the Bank of England will, wholly inappropriately, therefore increase, or at least sustain, current inappropriate levels of interest rates is also high. The knock-on effects will be serious, including financial stress, weakened household resilience, business failure, and more.
On top of this, the naive stock market belief that all of this will be resolved soon looks naive in the extreme. As a consequence, the stock market rally later yesterday looks to be misplaced. Israel is, after all, talking about this lasting for weeks, and there appears to be no reason to think otherwise. In that case, the consequences can only get worse.
What is more, there is no stated political endgame to this war when no justification for its commencement has yet been offered. What we therefore have to presume is that the conflict will end only because someone, as a result of circumstances, will eventually give way.
A lack of water and food in the Gulf states might force them to demand that there be an end to hostilities.
Attacks on desalination plants in Israel and Saudi Arabia might be so significant that they are forced to seek an end to hostilities.
And then there is the simple arithmetic of missile supplies to consider. Iranian missiles might be of fairly low calibre, but they still need to be knocked from the skies. Right now, the cost of the defence systems is much higher than the cost of the attack systems. Iran appears to have a deep stockpile of missiles available to it, and whether the cost ratio is really on the side of Israel and the USA, as they claim, is hard to work out.
What we therefore have is a complex situation of profound uncertainty in which the outcome of this conflict cannot be predicted.
What we do know is that Trump began this believing that his success in Venezuela made him invincible, and that his need for a war to distract from the Epstein files was overwhelming.
We know that Netanyahu has the same urgent need for continuing war.
We know that the US population is not convinced by Trump's arguments.
We now know that the UK cabinet rebelled against Starmer's instinct to warmonger, because he, too, needs a war, and they wish to be rid of him.
We know that Europe is in turmoil over where to go with regard to this policy. All the time, NATO is weakened, whilst the position of those who question it is strengthened.
And there is one overwhelming conclusion to reach. If the role of government is to act on behalf of the people it governs, then we are not seeing evidence of that in action at this moment. Instead, what we are seeing is government acting on behalf of privileged elites in the USA, in Israel, and in Iran. If there is one thing that each of these leaderships shares, it is their contempt for the people they are meant to govern, and for everyone else in the world. They are equally worthy of condemnation as a result. Their failings are apparent to everyone but themselves.
Will any good come of any of this? That, to me, is perhaps the most interesting question, and my answers are deeply contingent.
If we now realise (again) that war is profoundly damaging to civilian populations, there may be a change of attitude towards it.
If it is appreciated that regime change from the air is not actually possible, there may be a change of Middle Eastern policy, with wider implications.
And if people realise that leaders who are only concerned with their personal well-being should not be trusted, we might get a shift in politics.
There are, however, a great many maybes and straightforward doubts in those three statements. The simple fact is that war rarely produces good outcomes.
The question is when we will realise that, and when will our armed forces actually begin to doubt whether what they are asked to do is legal, beneficial, or appropriate to follow.
When that happens, we might get a total reappraisal of what defence means.
Until then, this mayhem will continue.
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Thanks for that concise summary of the situation. I doubt very much whether our MPs or our media have thought through the possible implications of this disastrous enterprise. If they ever did, they would be highly unlikely to come clean with the public. Indeed, I’m sure most of them just seem to be looking for opportunities for political point scoring.
The wider public want and need the truth, not jingoism and flag waving or references to Churchill. Trump is deluded, as are his henchmen, into believing they are in a Netflix series where death is sanitised and the lives of ‘foreigners’ is cheap, especially the muslims.
Where it will all end is unknown, but you can bet your bottom dollar that it will not be the wealthy that will reduced to penury by these events.
What reliable sources are saying that the drone attacks on Cyprus weren’t launched by Iran?
I can’t find any references at all to say Iran didn’t launch them. Could you share yours?
Sky News for a start
And the UK government
The UK government is saying that the attacks were by Iranian made Shahed drones fired from Lebanon, by Hezbollah. Which is sponsored, funded and armed by Iran. The Guardian is reporting the same.
Why are you promoting conspiracy theories by claiming this could be a false flag operation?
I reported that what the UK government said intitally was wrong.
If they have now decided they know – that is not what they said at the time I wrote the post.
I am not creating conspiracy theories. I am reporting questions needing answers.
Bit there is one thiung I do know. I strongly suspect your employers would not want you using a work email address here or you are using a false address. So much for truth seeking.
I think one report said it might have been launched by Hezbollah from Lebanon – but…….?
Who said ‘truth is the first casualty’?
Badenoch and Farage have really got this wrong – even in their own terms – no popular support for joining in.
All we can say is we do not know.
Ande truth is the casualty.
Just search ‘Cyprus drone not from Iran’. There are too many references to list them here.
Thanks
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/breaking-cyprus-raf-base-akrotiri-36817529
https://greekcitytimes.com/2026/03/05/cyprus-raf-akrotiri-drone-attack-trump-starmer-troops/
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/cyprus-condemns-uk-after-raf-base-which-launched-gaza-spy-flights-hit-drone
It’s been confirmed that the attack was by an Iranian drone from Hezbollah, and Iranian proxy.
I am asking why you seem to seek to create misinformation by calling this attack a false flag by Israel.
It seems you constantly try to defend the most evil or regimes in Tehran whilst casting aspersions on Israel.
I’ll also note that you are also subject to GDPR and what you are doing – essentially threatening me via my relationship with my employer is illegal and a breach of it.
QUite sepcifically that has not been confirmed.
Latest reports do not say that at all.
They just think that, but it is not confirmed. You are lying.
And I am doing nothing to defend Iran: I condemn that regime.
But I also condemn the regimes in the USA and Israel as well. They are all abusing their people.
And I did not breach GDPR or threaten anything. I just told you to be careful, out of generosity, or stop lying.
Now, don’t waste my time again.
My speculation is that drone was launched by one of the pro-Iranian groups in Syria or Lebanon. Most of these are not professional soldiers with a chain of command -and such links would be disrupted. Lawrence observed that many of the Arab forces he was with would often ‘do their own thing’ whatever the agreed plan. Some things don’t change very much I am told.
But also the term proxies used by the media and politicians is only partly true. The Palestinians and Houthis were in conflict before Iran was involved.
Hezbollah was formed in response to the Israeli invasion c.1980 Many of the people in South Lebanon are related to those forced out of Palestine during the 1940s. Iran supplied money, arms and training. to resist. The US has done similar things around the world with people they supported-the worst example being the Contras in Nicaragua. But also better ones like Ukraine.
Iran sees Israel as a western colonial imposition by the west. It is not primarily, IMO, about religion. There are Jews in Iran still tho’ less numerous than before.
Hezbollah ( Naomi Klein in the Shock doctrine gives an account) also had a civil wing which, initially at least, was considered less corrupt due to their strict religious views. They had a welfare program and some were elected to the Lebanese govt. They were not proscribed by the UK until Boris was PM.
The ‘proxies’ were armed by Iran and I support the idea that they saw them as forward defence so if they were attacked, the Hezbollah etc could launch a flank attack. But the technological edge was with American weapons and they have been badly damaged.
The attack on Iran has looked likely for the last 5 or 6 years. In 2020 Trump wanted to attack Iran and was talked out of it by Esper and Pompeo. The ripples of that spread and General Milley, Chief of Staff, phoned the Chinese equivalent to reassure him. The Pentagon has portraits of all previous Chiefs but not Milley’s. Petty vindictiveness by ignorant, conceited and dangerous men.
Not that I am judgemental.
I am…
OK I admit it. So am I.
I believe Starmer’s utterances have been entirely performative, in an attempt to pacify, if that’s the appropriate word, those in his party who oppose this illegal war. The reality is that, by making the 2 bases available, he has ensured that the UK is complicit, and he knows it. Trump’s recent criticism of Starmer is Farage-inspired nonsense. The US have the UK right where they want it. Compliant.
You’re absolutely right about WW3. That means our Government should be doing some really serious contingency planning, as I tried to outline in a comment yesterday. As far as we can see, it isn’t.
Hi Richard
Just watched Michael Hudson on Democracy now,
His theory that the American attack on Iran is all about oil
and the control of the dollar with regard to the oil trade.
I believe Iran supplies China with a very large proportion of it’s oil and gets paid in Chinese currency. He also spoke about the role of the dollar in the oil business and how it benefits America.
An Interesting video might be how the USA controls the Middle East Countries through the oil trade and how the USA benefits.
Thanks
I am not sure I have much to add on that subject.
Well said Richard. May I say that the attack and sinking of the Iranian ship off the coast of Sri Lanka was illegal. For clarity:
International laws of naval warfare, primarily governed by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), establish that the high seas are open to all states and are reserved for peaceful purposes. Military force is only permitted under specific conditions, such as self-defense or with multilateral authorization, to ensure that actions do not violate state sovereignty or international legal principles.
Thanks
More information on the sinking of the ship from Military.com; It was apparently a ship returning from a biannual multinational naval training exercise held in India at the invitation of the Indian Gov. to which other nations were invited. The ship was returning in international waters when it was hit. It was unarmed as that was a requirement for visiting ships. After being hit the sailors were left to drown which is another violation of war at sea, until ships from other nations tried to rescue who they could and seems to follow earlier bombing raids on small boats supposedly carrying drugs in the Caribbean. Hegseth has openly denigrated international law, he and Trump seems a good pair. May they end up at the Hague, both of them.
The only way out of this that I can see would be mass protest/civil disobedience in Israel. Trump is obviously under Netanyahu’s thumb, most likely with Epstein leverage, and has allowed himself to be manipulated into starting this pointless and unwinnable war.
Only if the Israeli people stand up and say “Enough” could this possibly de-escalate at this stage.
Another, even less likely possibility would be mass resgination or refusal of orders by American top brass. There have been rumours about this already, but they remain rumours for now.
I think at this point we just have to accept that global markets are completely decoupled from reality. Universal US tariffs, wars in Europe and the Middle East, signs of a massive AI bubble (which, if it’s not a bubble, will decimate employment), the Suez Canal at risk and the straits of Hormuz shut down. Barely a ripple.
It goes to show that extreme wealth and asset inflation has yet to run its course, but I suspect the reckoning, when it eventually comes, will be ugly. I honestly think it may be years rather than weeks yet… as ever, timing markets is a fool’s game, even if the long term direction must be obvious to all by now.
Two interesting articles here
Firstly more threats to fertiliser supplies – the major producing nations dont exactly inspire confidence
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/mar/05/big-burden-for-farmers-gulf-shipping-crisis-threatens-food-price-shock
And of course the UK’s dependence on imports many of which come via Global ‘choke points’ of which there are many more than The Gulf of Hormuz
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/05/globalisation-under-threat-britain-economy-iran-conflict
But if course Reform & The Conservatives dont seem very keen on renewables which are one route out of some of these issues
It just gets worse….
Reduced use of SYNTHETIC fertilisers would be good for all of us. I speak as someone badly affected by a build up of toxins from artificial fertilisers and pesticides in 1990. In the distant past we used seaweed and other natural fertilisers, which is why Jersey potatoes used to taste so good.
Your summary of what is going on in this conflict shows a better and broader viewpoint than we get in the BBC ITV news or other mainstream media. The political landscape in the middle east is likely to drastically change after this conflict ends. The US military bases will not be functioning and the countries which host them will be much more reluctant to invite them back. Hopefully Trump and his close cronies will be kicked out of power by the US.
I recommend watching Judging Freedom by judge Andrew Napolitano on YouTube, especially when he has Professor Marandi on it. This channel has a wide range of guests on it covering economic and political issues.
I appreciate the work you do in creating videos on YouTube and your posts here. Keep it up!
Thanks
Ive just got (free) ebook from OR Books about history of US/Iran relationship “Inside Iran”. Only just started reading it so no comment yet.
If you want it free, HURRY!
https://orbooks.com/catalog/inside-iran/
I used think that Bush Junior was the low point in American leadership.
To watch a thug like Hegseth in action means that I was obviously deluded – there was always worse to come.
I hope that I live long enough to see him indicted for war crimes.
Me too
@Karim
https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2026/03/05/mayhem-continues/comment-page-1/#comment-1070616
You put several falsehoods and public accusations in a reply to ME, although I think your misinformation and smearing was aimed at Richard.
FALSEHOOD: “It has been confirmed that…” Wrong.
“It has been suggested that…”
FALSEHOOD: “by calling this attack a false flag … by Israel..” Wrong.
“with the possibility that…”
FALSEHOOD: “trying to defend …Tehran”. Wrong, RJM specifically has expressed his rejection of the Iranian regime several times. It was clear to me. Maybe you haven’t done your research?
EBBOK
(Engage Brain Before Operating Keyboard)
LIBELLOUS ALLEGATION: You have publicly, in writing, accused RJM of a GDPR criminal offence and of threatening you. That’s serious. You would need evidence, and substantiation. I’d willingly testify in his defence. You may want to take legal advice (civil and criminal) on that one. UKLFI are experts on reporting people to employers, perhaps you should talk to them about the law on that, although their own reputation has been sliding a bit recently?
https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/uk/2025/08/23/pro-israel-lawyers-investigated-over-alleged-campaign-to-intimidate-palestine-supporters/
Karim, hasbara doesn’t work as well nowadays, as it used to. The tactics are too well known and it doesn’t intimidate any more. As a desperate defence against an illegal war perpetrated by rogue regimes, led by leaders with international arrest warrants outstanding it is particularly ineffective.
Thanks
There are also significant consequences for the climate
These figures are for the war in Gaza but I don’t see any sign of the war with Iran being more environmentally friendly
Direct War Activities: Jets, Bombs, rockets in the First 60 days: 281,315 tonnes of Carbon Dioxide equivalent (tCOâ‚‚e) which is more than the annual emissions of 20 countries
Construction of concrete infrastructure by Israel and Hamas : 450,000 tCOâ‚‚e
Future reconstruction of Gaza: 30 million tCOâ‚‚e
https://physicsworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/2025-12-skuse-fig3.png#
Full Report : https://www.qmul.ac.uk/sbm/research/military-emissions/
Correct
And noted
Excellent balanced viewpoint Richard.
It seems killing lots of people is the answer to everything..haven’t we learned from two massive horrendous wars with millions of lost good lives.
I believe if YOU want to go to war..get YOUR uniform..grab YOUR weapon … get right up the front line and YOU fight…and YOU die.
Or go and visit the immaculate immense graveyards from the last war. Who knows who we lost in that senseless pointless war..maybe a scientist who would have found a cure for cancer…now lost.
Your comments sane and balanced. Thank you.
Thank you
I am making a video on this tomorrow.