Everyone knows there was no legal justification for the war on Iran now being waged by Israel with active support from the US, and quiet support from the UK.
There was no threat to the US that could require its involvement.
There was no immediate threat to Israel.
There was no evidence that Iran has restored whatever nuclear capacity it had, which was bombed last year.
This illegal war was about regime change. The best claim for it was that it might bring a better life for Iranians. There is no evidence that aerial warfare has ever delivered this outcome.
The cost will be enormous. This is the UK gas price, from Trading Economics, at around 7.15 am this morning:
This could increase UK energy costs per household by £500 a year.
The oil price increase is not so steep, but it might add 0.3% to inflation if it continues.
And the FTSE is falling, as I predicted. The 6-month view makes clear how sharp the reaction is:
The tipping point has happened. I suspect the bubble is bursting, although US data is a little less clear, whilst Japan is as emphatic:
What does all this mean? Who knows? We face uncertainty. But what I think we can say for sure is that this forecast, made by the Office for Budget Responsibility yesterday, is wrong:
The idea that we will get flat line, 2% inflation for four years from 2027 is absurd, and that would have been true without this war.
It is as absurd that we would get this growth pattern:
Yes, that is flat line 2% growth as well.
This was a day when fantasy met reality. The Office for Budget Responsibility's absurd claims came up hard against the reality of Zionist-inspired aggression and lost heavily.
So will we. Have no doubt about it. This war is going to be very costly. Neoliberals are out of ideas. War is one of the few things they have left that they can imagine doing to sustain themselves in power. We will all pay a very heavy price for that.
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So do the US war plans have an Endgame?
How will it end
Who will form the new Government in Iran
Will the outcome be stable
Will the new Government be better than the old?
I suspect not
Me neither
“We will all pay a very heavy price for that.”. Iranian people doing that right now (150 dead school children?).
As for the UK, the only reason UK citizens will pay more for elec is because of the marginal market – which prices elec @ the cost of gas. Woth emphasising: elec wholesale price is directly linked to the SPOT MARKET PRICE of gas, even though every owner of gas generators buys gas ahead (yearly, half yearly, quarterly etc). So these rip-off-merchants are generating elec @ a blended gas price that is +/- Euro25/MWh whilst selling elec based on the spot gas price. I’m now working with a former director from DG Competition. We will be having discussions soon with Competition. Abuse of dominant position, rent seeking, etc etc. By the way, looking for an accountant that can forensically take apart network operator accounts (we are going after those rapacious bastards as well).
This won’t happen in the UK cos Amamzon now runs UK competition policy (ex-head of Amazon UK now heads what is laughably called the UK Comeptition rabble). Why would I bother speaking to an imbecile? I won’t. Pity UK citizens aka two legged cash dispensers for monopolies etc.
Thanks Mike
That is not me…
[…] have already noted this morning that the growth forecast in the Office for Budget Responsibility's predictions, which were […]
Trumps actions will have an impact on UK consumers especially if gas prices continue to rise.
The UK inflation rate then increases. The Bank of England response is likely to be do nothing to the base rate or more likely to increase the base rate to combat inflation.
We will be told that ” we can find money to increase defence spending but we must cut the education ( take your pick of where the cuts will fall) budget to pay for it”.
Madness. No steer is heading to election oblivion.
The Iranian regime is undoubtedly theocratic, murders and executes its own citizens, has an authoritarian dress code for women and would like to build a nuclear weapon in secret and have well meaning westerners say “Well, the evidence they’re about to get one is weak”. Until the fuse goes in I suppose, Iran would also like to effect regime change in Israel by spreading terrorism around the region.
But the West is far far worse because what they’ve done isn’t legal and the threat isn’t immediate.
It is not our job to do regime change.
It is our job to defend against the consequences of a regime.
There is no evidence at all Iran now has nuclear capability.
There is no evidence it poses any real threat to Israel except when attacked.
You are talking total nonsense, excepting the last point.
This is part of the 1918 Anglo-French Declaration published in main cities of Egypt, Palestine, Syria, Jordan and Lebanon.
“Far from wishing to impose any particular institutions on the populations of those regions, their [ie France and Great Britain’s] only concern is to offer such support and efficacious help as will ensure the smooth working of the governments and administrations which those populations will have elected of their own free will to have; to facilitate the economic development of the country by promoting and encouraging local initiative; to foster the spread of education; and to put an end to the dissensions which Turkish policy has for so long exploited. Such is the task which the two Allied Powers wish to undertake in the liberated territories.”
In fact League of Nations mandates were imposed on those areas delaying independence. The Turkish administration had been very poor and did not involve the Arabs. There was a good case for a period of having western involvement. And there was access to oil. It was vital to the western economy.
We may recall the name of the invasion of Iraq in 2003, “operation Iraqi Freedom” .
Trump when announcing the attack on Iran said ‘Your day of liberation is at hand.’
We have been “liberating the people of the Middle East” for a long time.
This might be the final time. If it is, Israel will be very exposed.