I offer this Tweet from Sam Coates of Sky News, who is one of the most reliable commentators in the British political scene that I think we have right now. He posted it at around 6 am, this morning:
The poll was taken at the weekend.
The political scene is being rewritten. That was overdue.
Now it is time to get the economics right.
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An encouraging poll. 51:39 pogressive – always the main metric. Clearly got to be cooperation at the next GE
Labour do not cooperate, they believe in Labourism they Labour are the only solution. The Greens do cooperate, but only with parties there is some overlap and mutual respect. I’m in the South West and there is good cooperation between the Greens and the LDs, but in Exeter the progressive alliance between the Greens and LDs is against Labour and acts as an opposition.
You’re right Hazel, but would they bring down a Green-led coalition and let Reform/Con form a government?!
Maybe…
I agree, the problem is Labour. I can’t see them agreeing to an official pact but smart targeting of seats by each party would be enough for a traffic light coalition
Bib Ensch Labour hate the Greens so much I think they could. I visited Brighton to help with getting Caroline re elected the first time and Labour were throwing everything at it. Far more than at Tory seats they stood much more chance of winning.
Agredd
I think Bob knows that
If Labour are decimated in the next GE, there willingness to cooperate in a progressive coalition could depend on the make up of the Labour MP who survive the cull. If they were mostly Socialist Campaign Group members and elected someone like Clive Lewis or Nadia Whitcomb as leader they could be become junior partners in a Green lead collation with Zack as PM! (I am as ever, the eternal optimist).
It’s great news, and YouGov is one of the ,pre reliable poll companies with a large sample size. It will be interesting to see what the BBC and the MSM make of it. All the accusations of tactical voting and foul play by the Greens despite gross violations of electoral law by Labour and Reform have shown how biased reporting is. However despite the vile comments Hannah was subjected to she has come out of it shining.
Clearly Green policies do need improving and the process needs changing, but what economic policy does Labour have? And Reform has no coherent policy base at all. Clearly the public want positive politics that is vaguely in touch with normal society.
Labour has ni policy at all.
It was amusing to hear Darren jones say the Greens had none on radio 4 this morning when Labour has never revealed any thinking at all.
But!!!
– we have Starmer’s Ten Pledges, and the 2024 manifesto promising CHANGE…
Oh, hang on, as you were,
“No policies” was correct.
The Greens breaking 20% in the polls is really very encouraging.
What is also encouraging is that Reform is continuing to plateau and/or decline (in this poll). It appears they have clearly hit their ceiling (which probably happened around last summer in actual fact).
Also interesting is the fact that there are a few grumbles amongst Lib Dems about their very static polls, but their polling is consistently ‘sticky’ at roughly the same level (in this poll only two points behind Labour and the Tories), and so can make an impact and be useful in any horse trading to form a progressive alliance after a hung parliament at a general election.
I agree. I think Reform has now plateaued, and Labour is in terminal declined. There is everything for people to play for now.
A very heartening poll.
While I remain somewhat worried about the even more fascist Restore party headed by Rupert Lowe, in this political environment it may actually help a progressive alliance if it splits rather than adds to right wing votes. Reform facing competition at 22% is actually quite different from 32% in the polls.
I saw a great analysis on TLDR (Too Long, Didn’t Read) that Reform has plateaued. Everyone willing to fall for their crap has already done so; they have no way of pulling in extra supporters. They are just too divisive. I suspect that Restore UK is a calculated sham to make Reform seem more viable and less insane to regular voters, but I have a suspicious mind. It could simply be that there is so much money being thrown at right-wing parties that Lowe wanted a bigger cut of the action. Regardless, Reform has to maintain its position for three long years, and anything could happen between now and then, with no hope of getting a bigger slice of the vote. I know for a fact that many Reform voters are not racist and just truly desire an alternative to the current Westminster corruption. The Greens can peel off some of those voters from Reform. It will be money vs people power, but it can be done.
Reform is definitely declining…
The Lib Dems are going to have to distance themselves from the neoliberalism of the single transferable party if they want to break free of their static vote share. I’m not sure that’s possible. One of my main criticisms of LDs in the coalition years was that they consistently failed to create much clear water between themselves and the Tories.
I think most LDs have no idea why the party is not more popular; without that insight nothing can change.
The LDs come up with some pretty awful racist tropes when it suits them locally. And the Coalition…
And Clegg going to Facebook…
And austerity, in exchange for a plastic bag tax…
And the Orange Book…
(I used to vote LD, and had a good LD MP whom I knew personally – woman of principle, but her replacement now in Parliament after 2024, used dodgy tactics in elections).
LDs don’t seem to have a moral foundation underpinning them. My personal view.
I note that a majority of Deform voters support the attack by Israel & USA on Iran.
By expension one supposes they are happy to pay more for elec and gas?
What? no? Well I’m flabbergasted – doubtless they will blame the windmills for elec & gas price rises.
I have some ideas for leaflets in Wales: “Vote Deform & pay more for elec and gas”
They better like paying more for oil and gas, because that is Reform’s energy policy. Fewer renewables, more gas, more fracking across England’s green and pleasant land.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/richard-tice-nigel-farage-government-skegness-boston-b2926569.html
A land of ever higher bills.
This has to be the first time the Greens have polled ahead of Labour (and the Tories) ever? I can’t remember it happening before.
It’s a seismic shift.
I think that people know that the two old parties no longer represent the interests of ordinary people. Reform represent a politics of hate and insecurity. One way or another, with FPTP, the old parties just give us a Reform government, which would be a disaster. We got a taste of that yesterday when gas prices shot up by over 40%. Reform want Britain’s energy policy to be dependent on oil and gas — madness.
You are right that there are some things the Greens still need to get right, especially as the right wing media will be preparing their hatchet job to bring them down — that’s guaranteed to happen, especially once we get to into an election year.
It’s good that many people are letting it be known they want a vision of something positive, that cares about the future for all, rather than the politics of fear, hate, and insecurity.
You’re right MarP. I worry a lot about the hatchet job that’s coming our way. I wish we knew where, when and how it will be coming, so we can prepare for it!
Richard, it’s time you Steve Keen deliver some good post-Keynesian and MMT (minus Warren Mosler’s belief that a trade deficit is good and a trade surplus is bad) teaching to the Green Party politicians and members – your interview with Polanski last year indicated he is beginning to get it!
Let’s see what happens…
I will talk to any non-racist, non-genocide supporting politician
Forgive me going off at a bit of a tangent Richard, but the above ‘trade deficit good, trade surplus bad’ comment reminded that the Labour government in the 1960s frequently faced balance of payments crises and worried about runs on the pound. I’ve never been quite sure why those issues no longer interest politicians and the media?
We had a fixed exchange rate
They wanted to maintain it
It was a wholly artificial constraint
Now the pound floats. It needs to do so.
The issue has as a result largely gone away.
Fa***e has a political version of ADHD (apologies to all neurodiverse people).
Can he stay focussed long enough, in one party, till 2029? IMHO No.
Can he keep his party
together till 2029? IMHO No.
Can he, his people, and especially his failing councils Mayors and PCCs survive public scrutiny till 2029? IMHO No.
Are ReformUK Ltd. and full-fat UK fascism still a big risk for 2029? Oh YES.
I think they have plateaued though.
I am constantly surprised by the number of people we canvass that are choosing between the Greens and Reform. There are many people who are so disillusioned with traditional party politics, they want to vote for change. Green and Reform are the protest vote choices. It is relatively simple to dissuade all but the hardened fascists to switch to us, just by empathising with them over the current state of the country and then explaining a few of Reform’s policies to them. I think Reform’s vote is likely to drop 2-3 more points yet. It’s going to get very interesting! We just need to keep the Green Momentum going…
Thanks Bob
The game is over for the single transferable party