I admit that I had no idea what to expect when I woke this morning, knowing that I would very shortly discover the news about the Gordon and Denton by-election.
I had read all the reports about the Greens, Reform, and Labour running neck-and-neck, with the Tories, Liberal Democrats, and everyone else running so far behind that this was most definitely a three-horse race at best.
But now we know: this is the result:
Looked at another way, this is it:
Of course, I am delighted. A green victory was the best possible outcome.
So, what is all this about?
Firstly, let's talk about the Greens. Whatever else there might be to note, the first thing to say is that they have produced a by-election performance that is massively better than they have ever done before. They have never got more than 11% of the voter share in a by-election before. Here, they took more than 40%. This is a seismic shift. This does, quite literally, rewrite the electoral landscape.
By a very long way, they are in political terms the winners of this by-election because they have shown themselves to be a real political force, capable of challenging Labour from the left in what was always a safe Labour seat. I will get to Labour in a moment; for now, all that needs to be said is that they have been utterly humiliated, coming third in a seat they had held for more than a century.
The direction of travel is very apparent. Whatever other conclusions can be drawn from this particular result, and by-elections should never be relied upon as particular indicators, but only as indicators of trends, then the message that Gorton and Denton have sent is that the Greens are now serious political players in the English scene.
Outside the south-west of England, where the LibDems are likely to still take the lead, and maybe some other rural communities like the one I live in, and of course, Wales and Scotland where politics is very different, although the English are generally reluctant to admit it, the Greens are not just a party for a protest vote against Labour, but are very definitely now the alternative future for everybody who thinks that we can do better than we are. They are the closest thing we have to an embodiment of a politics of care and an economics of hope. The result shows that people want that.
Nothing will be able to change my belief about that this morning. And ignoring the specifics of the note, I note this generality: a new force has arrived in British politics, and this is now apparent.
Secondly, Labour's position looks to be deeply uncomfortable, to the point of being ghastly. A safe seat held by Labour for more than a century in a city that has the habit of always returning massive Labour majorities has now fallen. People are now questioning why they should want a Labour member of Parliament, and rightly so. Labour:
- Is not the party it once was
- Has moved far to the right
- Has revealed its corruption
- Is failing badly in office, revealing it is clueless as to what to do
- Has nothing to say to people in Gorton and Denton, or anywhere much else either
- Has expelled anyone with anything to say from its ranks and is now being expelled from office as a result.
The outcome is this by-election result. In the past, this seat would never have been in serious doubt, however uncomfortable Labour might have been in office. It was one of those pin-a-red-rosette-on-a-donkey seats, and the donkey would get elected. Very obviously, that is no longer true. Labour is in deep trouble, and again, ignoring the detail, this is glaringly obvious. Do not doubt that the Labour Party's days are over. Gordon and Denton are saying so. From the high point of July 2024, this is the new low, and the new reality is that the party is, quite literally, over for Labour.
Then, unfortunately, I have to note Reform's results. Once more, I will ignore the specifics and everything to do with their vile campaign, their toxic candidate, what was said by him and the party during the campaign, and the policies that they propose. The miserable truth is that despite all these things, Reform came from nowhere to come second in this constituency. Do not doubt the significance of that. The Greens may well have won, and easily, and this is a "red wall" seat. But Reform still did uncomfortably well in a seat where around 28% of the population are Muslim, and more are from ethnic minorities. The divisions of hate are real in the country, and Reform, Restore and others require relentless exposure if their toxicity is to be made clear and people are to be made aware of just how much they hate most people, most of the white population included, in the UK.
As for the Tories and LibDems, there is not a lot to say. We already knew that the Tories were heading for oblivion. They clearly are. And we also knew the LibDems had no hope here. They proved it. Why didn't they just say "vote Green"? That might be the only question that needs to be asked.
But, standing back, have no doubt: this was historic.
The Greens are now major political players, with a massive charismatic new MP and a leader not yet in parliament, whilst Reform has been proven unable to take a northern Red Wall seat from Labour and Labour itself is looking into a very bleak future. Maybe a new era is being born. We need it.
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The BBC has published this article:
BBC News – ‘Family voting’ concerns raised by election observers in Gorton and Denton
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yqpr28jrwo
Family voting is of no concern because it is not illegal; families vote together.
Coercion is illegal, and there are no reports of it occurring.
So why is the BBC reporting a concern where there is none?
This is a far right news story aimed at Muslims
Cowardice on the BBC’s part not to make this clear
The Manchester Evening news is also running the story, so must be coordinated and planted.
Agreed
A Reform plant
Are you on the side of a blasphemy law and apostasy being punishable? You come across as one who is.
Please stop being very stupid
Family voting has been a mainstay of Labour support for the past century (it was good enough for my father, it’s good enough for me). There were no complaints when it worked for them. It’s not even surprising that people who grow up together will hold similar values and therefore views.
“So why is the BBC reporting a concern where there is none?” Because they have a warped sense of balance; they report all views that they think can get clicks, even in the total absence of evidence.
I wonder if we could see The Green Party having the same effect it did after the 1988 European Elections and see a shift in the Labour Government towards being more caring and environmentally aware?
Or more likley Labour will denounce them?
Labour has no one left who might shift it.
It was a joy to see Hannah Spencer’s victory speech. Heartfelt, caring and passionate. She called out the inequality between normal hardworking people and billionaires. People voted for a positive change. Isn’t this what Labour candidates used to do?
She was brilliant
Agreed. Starmer said “if you don’t like the changes we’ve made, you can leave.” I took his advice and so have many more lifelong LP voters. Hannah is a strong local MP now, she clearly understands what’s wrong in the UK and where the real faults lie. For me Labour voters need to take a good look at the reality of a LP that no longer represents the people of the UK. Well done Hannah and well done the Greens.
The candidates made the diff. Spencer was an ideal candidate for the Greens, local & very clearly working class. The Deform wierdo was parachuted in & was not working class & was kept well away from voters. Had Deform put up a candidate like Spencer, the result might have been different/closer. LINO have imposed quite a few non-local ciphers that became MPs (e.g. Joshua Simons for one). At the next election, they will be wiped out. Which leaves the open question: can the Greens find more potential MPs like Spencer – who is local, understands the local electorate and can articulate their concerns & have enough boots on the ground to get the message out? Will Deform learn their lesson? let’s hope not.
Is LINO finished? Possibly. Turn it around? Maybe but that would need quite diff policies & given the ideological “cleansing” by Starmer/McSweeney is there anybody in LINo who could do the turn around? Probably not. So zombie party/zombie government.
Are the tories finished? probably. Zombie party being absorbed by Deform.
The higher ethnic and religious diversity meant Reform could also push their inflated ‘concerns’ as a local issue.
Their problem is that they have a relatively evenly spread minority of support. As you say, Lib Dems have a stronghold in the South West. SNP are only a factor in Scotland, etc. Greens get a plurality of support amongst under 50’s. Labour don’t currently get a plurality in any age demographic, although they have red wall areas including city locations that and their support is also unevenly distributed.
I’m hopeful that further results to come will demonstrate Reform are NOT the ‘silent majority’s, just a vocal and visible minority, who may find themselves losing out to differing parties in different regions.
People don’t just want to not be left behind. They want to catch up to where they should be. The Greens made that message stick.
Even in South West there are plenty of Greens. Exeter could very easily go Green in 2029. There is a strong local Green party and a large progressive base disenchanted with Labour. And Bristol is on track to have several Green MPs. Sadly due to levels of poverty and deprivation down here Reform are doing well, it is Labour that have never had much of a presence outside of the cities.
But Exeter has also liong voted Labour
And Bristol is a Green stronghold
I guess I was talking rural south west
What surprised me this morning is that the swing towards the greens is bigger than the swing away from Labour. Green base is potentially larger than labour. If I was right winger I would be worried about that. The conservatives are irrelevant and promising to just be a better manager than the conservatives is a recipe for disaster.
Agreed
Wow.
Third.
That is unbelievably bad for Labour.
Labour have lost because they are still carrying out Tory policy. So for me, the Tories are sort of still in power never mind their poor showing (STP and all that). All we have is a mini competition going on in British politics as to who can be the nicest Tories among the old ‘top three parties’, which seems to me to be a bit of side show, because of Reform’s role of soaking up and focusing discontent in to a crude ‘blame game’.
The Greens have done really well, and I am pleased for them at this juncture. But I remain immensely wary of the death grip there is on economic policy in this country. We are not the only ones looking at this result. There will be some truly unpleasant people noting this and working out what they are going to do next.
I plan to vote Green in the next elections. A number of people I’ve spoken to are planning to do the same. People are either quietly turning to the Greens or loudly to Reform. We are fed up with the environmental destruction caused by the water companies that Labour is doing nothing about. The Greens seem to be the only party willing to invest in public services.
That result was first positive news for weeks. And Im still a Labour member.
Reform cant blame right wing split . The Tory collapse may mean less likelihood of a Reform Tory pact in future?
Polanksi did a good R4 interview – answering distorted and provocative questions so directly and refuting premise etc. Wish he would modify the wealth tax ideas along Richard’s lines.
Comments on X had suggested the media have been testing different strategies for ‘Corbynising ‘ Polanski – so the ‘Democracy Volunteers’ story to discredit the result seems to be the latest desperate attempt. But why would BBC headline it? Is it yet another search to ‘balance’ the truth with the opposite?
I’ve been interested to see that fairly much all the media commentary has been framed around the Greens having “kept Reform out”. And yet what if, as you say, people were also voting for the Green policies so ably expressed by Hannah Spencer? That would be a very different thing, wouldn’t it?
Agreed
I see this as a positive vote
My mother always said Greens were good for you. She was right!
Agreed that this was the best result possible. The bare minimum was that the vile Ref*** candidate did not win and thankfully he did not.
The clip of him giving his reaction to the result just shows what a horrible, nasty individual he is and no doubt he will use his various platforms to create further anger, hate and division and probably intensify what has already been done.
Craig