The Guardian has this headline this morning:
UK far right lines up behind Rupert Lowe in challenge to Reform
The subtitle is:
MP who fell out with Nigel Farage and has backing of Elon Musk launches anti-immigration party in Great Yarmouth
And as the article notes:
Over the weekend other parties and figures to the right of Reform quickly rallied behind the new party. Advance UK, led by the former Reform deputy leader Ben Habib and backed by the far-right activist known as Tommy Robinson, said it would consider a merger.
Such a force could cost Reform a number of seats – and potentially even power, in a wafer-thin general election result – by splitting support among those drawn to hard-right anti-immigration populism.
What do I think about the prospect of a fractured right, split between Farage, Lowe and the Tories?
"Yes, please" is the only real response I can offer to that prospect.
"Bring it on", might be my second take.
Whatever electoral system we have, this is welcome. The more the far-right fight among themselves, the more extreme they will get, the less their appeal will be, and the lower their electoral success will be.
That does not end their toxicity, and I am aware of that. But the fact that Farage cannot now hold his far-right front together clearly supports the hypothesis that I have had for a while, which is that his appeal has peaked.
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In this context, this is worth watching: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ND2EBhYLMRs
Novara/Bastani in Manchester. Deform has a lot of troops on the ground. It is difficult to say what impact, but there is no doubt that “immigration” has been pulled to the front. If Deform win in Manchester it could give them a leg-up. I take the point about a split in the right-whinge – but this is unlikely to impact on Manchester which seems to be turning into a straigh Green vs Deform fight.
Particualrly worrying – the aceptance by some that immigration is a problem – no questioing – just acceptance. Pathetic sheeple.
Agreed, very worrying.
Many people want the problem to be immigration because they want to hate a target they can reach. Reform aren’t convincing people as such, they are mostly preaching to the converted, normalising the hate and permitting people to express it. In my opinion, anyway.
On the surface it’s welcome. But it also takes the whole spectrum of parties even further to the right, perhaps making Reform policies seem not so extreme after all to confused-induced-racism voters. Could be the playbook. Hope not. Hmm.
Fragmentation sounds like a gleam of hope in the short term. Thanks for bringing it to light.
This looks like more ‘filling the zone with shit’ to me, Bannon style.
On a slightly different tack, but related note.The drivers of this is the lack of proper ‘blood supply’ to anywhere but London.
I know places like Great Yarmouth, once a former Victorian seaside beauty, have been treated as cheap receptacles to dump other places’ problems.
This has created complex high need communities, and no doubt local resentment which Reform harvest for their nefarious purposes.
Neoliberalism- apply the problem then apply the solution.
Electoral fragmentation may reduce one pathway to influence, but it doesn’t eliminate the underlying hatred, social polarisation, and online radicalisation that will lead to undemocratic behaviour and violence if left unaddressed. Democratic safeguards like a strong civil society, fair institutions, inclusive economic policies, and robust social norms against violence, are all essential if we are to prevent this. As you are warning us daily, we’re falling far short in all these areas.
Entirely agreed.
Never forget the grift aspect. There’s so much money out there, ripe for the taking, and all you have to do is push the Overton window to the right to get your share. Maybe Lowe didn’t want to share with Farage.
The danger that Reform had seemed to pose was that of uniting the right behind a single person and party. Now Badenoch has found some more political awareness and stopped putting her feet in her mouth so often, the Tories have regained some support. Meanwhile Reform seems to have harmed itself with the recent defections and as-expected inability to actually run councils. And now there’s Advance to peel off further support.
A key hope is that they all insist they ‘can win’ in every location while the left has realised the need for tactical voting.
Ratchet right. Watch and recalibrate. A tried and tested game play we have seen many times before.