Two charts from the FT this morning.
The first shows something I have suggested for a while, which is that Farage is now flatlining when it comes to support:
Labour remains in trouble, but there is no doubt that Reform has plateaued. The Tories have, quite extraordinarily, recovered a little.
Why is that? This chart reveals all:
Starmer might be profoundly unpopular, but so too is Farage, and being the incumbent always reduces popularity, making Farage's ratings particularly significant. He is profoundly disliked by people in the UK, and that is influencing political behaviour in ways that are almost unprecedented. No wonder we are seeing so much tactical voting.
As for the Tories, Badenoch has found her feet and jettisoning idiots to Reform has done her no harm, and them no good.
Who is the winner from all this? Zack Polanski is. The Gorton by-election result is going to be very interesting.
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Reform only beat the Greens by 36 votes in the Peterborough by-election and everybody in Gorton & Denton hates Matt Goodwin so that one will probably go to the Green’s working class hero Hannah Spencer.
Reform is a busted flush, the press is now finally getting more interested in their Russian funding links, which will finish them off for good.
Interesting. Yes Kemi Badenoch seems to have grown into the job and is benefitting from both Labour travails and dislike of Farage. It will be interesting to see how things work out.
Even Badenoch was unable to fumble all the inside edges that Starmer has sent her way over the last two or three PMQs.
As for Fa***e, with Reform UK Ltd. now as council incumbents, he has had difficulty applying his “immigration” arguments to local government finance, and as council tax bills will be arriving on the doormats of voters in the run up to May’s local elections, and Reform’s are some of the highest (Worcestershire +9%), he (and his rip-off DOLGE) are in trouble.
I also think the next month will not be kind to him in terms of Epstein research. At the very least, it will highlight his overseas interests, and his grifter lifestyle amongst the wealthy. He is the exact opposite of a patriot, and any politician wanting to hurt him electorally would do well to focus on that, alongside more positive campaigning.
There is another question to be answered: why so much emphasis on individuals? Politics has to be defined by policies, good, bad, indifferent, not personalities. The tories were destroyed by a combo of sleaze & incompetance with both amplified by the personalities involved. LINO ditto.
The media focus needs to be on policy – but in a media world obsessed by personalities (cos they are more fun?) the focus is anything but. Pity.
I suppose a focus on policy would require the MSM to think/analyse/reflect – fat chance of that.
Agreed.
But politicians like to believe they are special – hence the absurd claim that people vote for candidates not parties, used as a defence of FPTP.
Recently the government responded to a petition that pointed out that defections ought to trigger a by-election.
Their response confirms that we vote for people not parties. And they have no intention of changing that:
“This response was given on 9 February 2026
There are no plans to make changes to the current constitutional arrangements, whereby voters elect individual candidates, and not the political party they represent.
It is an established constitutional principle that at UK General Elections, voters cast their vote for individual candidates, and not the political party they represent.
When a Member of Parliament (MP) decides to change their party affiliation, it is for the MP to decide whether to continue to sit in the House of Commons (as a representative of their new political party or as an independent MP) or to stand down from their seat to trigger a by-election and, if they wish, seek re-election.
There are no plans to make changes to the current arrangements.
Cabinet Office”
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/737660?reveal_response=yes
I got that, havng signed the petition. I thought it delusional.
For some bizarre reason, people always go back to the Tories. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if they won the next General Election. Quite an attractive price of 9/2 with the bookies too.
Interesting……………..
I tell you what, let’s give the British people some due here shall we?
What if what we are seeing here is some blowback because of the Tories Farage has taken under his wing? What if his USP – he as not one of the usual suspects who have made a hash of it already – is now taking a blow?
Maybe this is what is happening? People like Jenrick, 30p Lee etc., I mean these folk are not liked really. He is flatlining because of his association with people deemed to have failed us already.
According to the poll, a coalition of Tories and Reform at about 49% would beat a coalition of Labour, Lib Dems and Greens at circa 45%, and put the right wing in No 10, which is worrying.
Agreed
It’s still a little surprising that Reform are around 30%, despite everything that is known about them and Farage. Failed policies, failed politicians joining them, love of Trump and MAGA, past association with traitors, crooks and villains, climate deniers (hows that flooding doing in Reform held council areas?), 900 grand houses not accounted for, admiration of Putin, and the only policy they have left is racism.
If polls stay like this, there will need to a lot of tactical voting at the next election to stop Reform, or a Reform/Tory alliance. I know they say they hate each other, but they will stick together when the chance of power comes.