Who will succeed Starmer? He will go. I cannot see any alternative. Labour MPs will now realise that their futures depend entirely on him going. I gather these are the odds:
| Contender | Indicative odds | Market view |
|---|---|---|
| Angela Rayner – former deputy leader; senior figure | Around favourite in many markets | Higher probability of succeeding Starmer |
| Wes Streeting – Shadow Health Secretary | 5/2–7/2 in some markets | Strong contender |
| Andy Burnham – Mayor of Greater Manchester (if he returns to Parliament) | 7/1 or similar | Longer shot but recognised name |
| Rachel Reeves – senior economic figure | Around 7/1 in some books | Competitive contender |
| Yvette Cooper / Lisa Nandy / others | Double-figure odds | Less likely on market terms |
Let's be clear:
1) Rayner cannot run. She is still under tax investigation.
2) Streeting cannot run. He is tainted by his links to Mandelson, his failure as health secretary, his whiny character, his lack of support in Labour, and his lack of a safe seat.
3) Burnham is not an MP. Nor is he likely to become one.
4) The idea that Reeves - the most unpopular current cabinet minister with the public - could lead Labour is absurd.
5) The also-rans won't even get into the stalls.
Where does that leave Labour? Rudderless, helpless and utterly unable to govern.
What should they do? I suggest this agenda:
1) Form a national government, or at the very least, a loose coalition of the willing to keep the far right out. It is not clear that it needs a Labour leader, but if it did, Ed Miliband is the person to do it.
2) Do electoral and parliamentary reform to prevent Reform from taking power.
3) Put in place a budget to deliver politics for people, a politics of care and funding for the future. all of which is possible. A list of required measures could follow in a later blog.
4) Agree to the demands of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and pass a Referendum Act to grant them the right to leave the Union.
5) Clip the wings of the Royal prerogative, inclduing the role of Royalty.
6) Only then consider an election.
By doing that, credibility might be restored by signalling a real change of heart. Otherwise, Labour and the country are in deep trouble, and Starmer will deliver what I have always thought he wants, which is a far-right government.
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According to Oddschecker, the next Labour leader could be:
Angela Rayner 9/4 (favourite)
Wes Streeting 5/1
Ed Miliband 15/2
Shabana Mahmood 54/5
Andy Burnham 10/1
:
Clive Lewis 100/1
:
Jeremy Corbyn 200/1
Source: https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-labour-leader
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[…] This is why I have suggested an alternative plan Labour needs to adopt here. […]
The Labour Party has been lost to the neoliberals, will those Labour MPs from the Corbyn era who survive accept this, cut their ties with the party and look for a new home? I wonder.
Who would want them.
The Greens might take Clive Lewis. Anyone else? I doubt it.
Perhaps Gordon Brown could act as mentor and advisor to whoever takes over the role. There may be a few other Labour grandees untainted by the Mandelson connection who could help. That is unlikely to salvage the Labour cause, but it could be seen as putting the country first. Faith in politicians to even address problems is now very low and seems beyond any hope of being restored.
Brown is totally tainted by Mandelson. He brought him back into government.