G. Elliot Morris is a psephologist (polling analyst) in the USA. As he noted in a post I was notified of overnight:
Democratic candidate Taylor Rehmet has won a special election for Texas State Senate District 9 in Tarrant County — a seat Donald Trump carried by 17 points in November 2024, per The Downballot. As I'm writing this, approximately 99% of the vote has been counted, and Rehmet carried the seat 57.2% vs his Republican challenger, Leigh Wambsganss, at 42.8%. That's a 14.4-point margin, and a 31.4-point swing vs Harris's margin in 2024 (if you ignore votes for minor-party candidates, the swing rounds up to D+32).
This swing of 32 points from Trump's 2024 performance is the largest Democratic overperformance in a competitive special election since Trump took office.
As he notes, this is in effect a by-election in UK terms. The swing may be exceptional, but it is still extraordinary. After excluding the exceptional factors and attempting to forecast a broad-based swing, he projects a 7% swing to the Democrats. As he notes, that could be enough to swing hardcore Republican Texas to the Democrats.
He adds caveats, though:
Of course, lots of assumptions are being made here, so don't consider this a concrete prediction. I've done the same analysis in other special elections and it usually suggests something more D-leaning.
The point is: a big wave is gathering. For Democrats, tonight is another piece of evidence that the 2026 midterms are going to be a good year for them (if the elections are free and fair, which is not guaranteed).
So, four thoughts.
First, people have seen fascism, and they don't like it.
Second, this is now being confirmed in growing swings in real polls.
Third, what will the fascists do in response? We know that Trump is no fan of democracy. Will he let it happen?
Fourth, what if he does not, in the face of growing evidence that he will lose badly?
The fallout does not beat thinking about with CE on the streets as Trump's Gestapo private army.
Additional note:
I have just noted that I am not the only person to comment on G. Elliott Morris' post on this election. Heather Cox Richardson, in her overnight Letter from an American, noted this:
Tonight, voters flipped a seat in the Texas Senate from Republican to Democratic in a special election. Democrat Taylor Rehmet, an Air Force veteran and machinist, defeated right-wing Republican Leigh Wambsganss for a seat that Republicans have held since the early 1990s. Robert Downen of Texas Monthly noted that in the final days of the campaign, the Wambsganss campaign spent $310,000 while Rehmet spent nothing, and Daniel Nichanian of BoltsMag posted that overall, Wambsganss spent nearly $2.2 million more than Rehmet in the campaign. Both Texas governor Greg Abbott and Trump himself publicly supported Wambsganss.
And yet, as G. Elliott Morrisof Strength in Numbers noted, voters flipped a district that Trump won in 2024 by 17 points to Rehmet, electing him by a 14.4-point margin. After removing the minor-party candidates in the vote, the swing from the Republican in 2024 was 32 points toward the Democrats. In Texas.
The spending data is significant: money cannot buy Trump love.
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Have you noticed Labour are cancelling elections for fun over here to prevent Reform gaining more control in local government? What would you call that?
Corruption.
For me, this was always on the cards and still is. So, one January in the future, we may see another march onto Capitol Hill, similar to the one led by Trumpists in 2021. This time it might be on a really huge scale and much more bloody with the boot on the other foot with people wanting to know where their election is.
I’m afraid that this is highly likely to happen, and maybe – unfortunately – it has to. And afterwards, maybe Putin’s orange parrot will get the comeuppance he should have had? And just maybe, it will be the right time to get the rich the fuck out of American politics. I wish.
I believe the number of constituency byelections that have been cancelled is 29……so far.
???
You mean council elections?
A real and concerning threat…but the only thing I’d comfortably predict during 2026 is volatility
Bill Clinton strategist James Carville famously coined the catchphrase, ‘It’s the economy stupid’. He was referring to the real economy as experienced my most people. Trump’s understanding of that mobilised his Maga base. The real economy has not improved and that will be being felt by those who got him elected.
Pitchfolk Economics has run some insightful analysis of what’s been happening with the US economy from the perspective of working american and the impact of declining population growth which has long supercharged that economy.
http://www.medium.com/civic-skunk-works/the-affordability-crisis-is-older-than-you-think-f272cee9a120
For good measure the article closed with a couple of egregious example of corporate welfare, in this case via means testing policy, has become a huge source of revenue for big business.
Apologies, yes Council elections…..30 so far.