More in Common has a new opinion poll out. It is not encouraging.
This is the seat breakdown.
All the usual caveats apply.
But worry, nonetheless, not least because there remains no sign that Labour will take any action to improve our electoral system.
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Thanks for sharing, but I won’t say thanks for the instruction to worry. The next election is 3.5 years away and there are a lot better things to be prioritising right now such as deciding if there is to be a threshold of hatred for the UK which must be crossed before being granted UK citizenship and what the courts will look like if Secretary Lammy gets his way.
It’s certainly not encouraging. I anticipate, though, that the wheels will start to come off the Farage bandwagon in the next twelve months for a couple of reasons.
Firstly, the heavy thump of rising council tax bills in Reform-led council areas in England after voters were promised otherwise.
Secondly, Reform will be found wanting at Holyrood and in the Senedd, because screaming about foreigners from the opposition benches instead of offering coherent solutions to the people of Scotland and Wales doesn’t present them as a viable alternative to the SNP, Plaid or the Single Transferable Party.
Finally, the Guardian’s investigation of Farage’s boyhood racism has shown his vulnerability to scrutiny. As the axis around which his organisation pivots, he is unable to go to ground every time a journalist finds awkward material. Sending Tice or Yusuf out every time won’t satisfy either the right-wing media or his own desire for attention.
I hope you are right.
Huh………….Labour,
Well we can only do that with Fabian incrementalism can’t we as we ‘accept life as you find it’.
Yeah, right.
All I see is a map of stupidity – the ‘sucker’s sphere’ choosing death over life.
It is true however that the resources deployed though to get us into this state have been immense and unchecked.
We are in the era of the politics of The Id my friends, an age where we will be either sorely tempted to join up or confront even ourselves. Hold fast me hearties.
The main encouragement in the article is that if there is a substantial amount of tactical voting, then a left-leaning coalition would be possible, and that there is recent evidence that this may be possible.
This means that along with ensuring that progressive policies are highlighted, that the importance of tactical voting for left-leaning voters is also essential.
Given the responses to the US actions in Venezuela, you might reasonably expect a further drop in Labour’s vote share since Starmer will not have won over any more conservative voters who might be expected to be more favourable to Trump’s actions here, but the weakness of the response and lack of clarity about where it sits with regards to international law and why that matters is all the more damning given his DPP background. He may lose further vote share to Lib Dems and Greens whose leaders both managed to summon up a condemnation of the action. How this then affects possible seat numbers with tactical voting is unclear, although perhaps not nearly as much as without tactical voting.
I should have highlighted that. I posted in haste.
I am wondering about the methodology of this survey, as they appear to show my constituency, Lothian East, going to Reform. That would certainly be a major shock, as this area has never returned a Tory, and in recent years has swung between Labour and the SNP. It is currently Labour, but there were particular circumstances at the last election which caused a swing against the SNP (defection of sitting MP to Alba), and I would expect it to go back to the SNP next time.
This shows South Devon…formerly Totnes…going to the Conservatives!!
Absolutely WRONG. Almost certainly…at this distance…Libdem.
Interesting
Important to look into the actual report and their methodology; and in particular their reassessment based on different levels of tactical voting.
“But there is one major caveat: tactical voting. For the first time we have explored how tactical voting could reshape the model projections. It suggests the Liberal Democrats could be big winners here – and if that if tactical voting is anywhere close to the scale we saw in Caerphilly, that parties of the left could deny Reform a majority and form a rainbow coalition of their own.”
May’s local elections will give a better idea. (I always point out to people on the doorstep that it’s a local election, about the city’s government and managing local issues… though I’ve now heard comments of disillusion with national Labour but satisfaction with local (Labour) councillors… which doesn’t suit my Green aspirations!)
Accepted.
Scary stuff. I also can’t imagine that this will help with any negotiations for closer trade ties with the EU. From an EU perspective, why bother
Absolutely right about Totnes (my former constituency) – no way it will ever turn Reform. I am also very sceptical about North East Scotland – apart from Peterhead and some small areas on the Moray coast I see very little evidence of Reform voting in Aberdeen for example.
interesting to know whether anyone who reads your commentaries was polled – I wasn’t – were you? I rarely answer anyone who stops me in the street or etc – although recently I did answer some school pupils (they were in local school uniform and very polite) who were doing a survey for a local project. So many polls are proved inaccurate, and to repeat others ???methodology.
I was asked once, by Ipsos Mori.
If there is even a hint of reality in this forecast, then Labour’s opposition (to its own Conference vote under Corbyn, as I recall) to the implementation of PR is lunacy.
Reform get 381 seats on just 31% of the vote, while Labour get only 85 seats on 20% of the vote – unsupportable on 2 counts
Seats for votes – 381 on 31% is 58.6% of the total. Simply unsupportable.
Comparative seats for vote – for Labour to get only 85 seats, or 22% (or less than ⅕) of the number Reform gets, for the relatively small difference between 31% and 20%, is inequitable in the extreme.
Final point, those arguing that smart voting tactics can deliver a hung Parliament, or even a Left alliance victory, need to look at the scale of this mountain, and fervently hope the wheels DO fall off a Reform “March on Westminster”.
That echoes Mussolini’s March on Rome, but Reform’s March would be different from that, in that Mussolini seized power, where this would be more like Hitler’s electoral accession to the Chancellorship – apparently democracy in action.
Much to agree with, Andrew. Thank you.
Two thoughts:
How will voting at 16 change this?
Both Reform & its predecessor UKIP were in favour of Electoral Reform – will they maintain that policy?
This doesn’t tie in with what I have been hearing about Reform having peaked in popularity, but this may be my own echo chamber at work. I would hope that Farage’s association with Trump is hurting him, but I am also noticing a lot of cruelty from people I wouldn’t expect it from of late. Perhaps more people than I thought actually like the strong man politics and performative cruelty of it all.
I share your fear