On the eve of what is widely expected to be a truly disastrous Budget for Labour, it's worth having a look at some polling data. This is supplied by Stats for Lefties, based on a Lord Ashcroft poll:
This is the seat projection:
I know all the caveats, of course.
However, note the Labour figure. Governments have done worse, but very few have come close to a popularity collapse on this scale.
Three thoughts.
First, Labour is currently empowering the far-right in the UK.
Second, the number of people who believe Labour has anything to offer is declining by the day.
Third, if Labour had any sense of duty to the people of this country - and even its own supporters - it would deliver PR now.
Will it react as it should? Of course not. This is Starmer's Labour after all, and they are living in cloud cuckoo land, and their own belief in the sanctity of all they do, so deluded are they.
We are in trouble unless that Green growth continues. And don't rule out that it might.
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Thank you. I am hugely worried. From these polling data it seems hard to see a sensible outcome, even from an electoral pact. Centrist and left voting is simply not going to be extractable from the 46% supporting Reform / Tory. Both of these are at least far-right. Even Labour is so right wing on so much and so incompetent on the rest that one has to wonder what core values those continuing to support Labour have. Do those who have not already jumped from Labour have any instinct for for a progressive liberal world or are they just Labour by tradition? Sixty-four percent of those polled would lend their support at present to Neo-fascist or far-right or socially far-right (Labour, in terms of recent dreadful immigrant posturing, anti-trans bigotry etc) party. Some kind of bottom-up democratic revolution recruiting people who don’t normally vote may be the only way to prevent an almost or actually neofascist future.
I agree it is depressing but there is also polling suggesting that Reform has a split support base, from both right and left, and it will struggle to hold both sets of voters.
That isn’t just one outlier poll, its a consistent trend over a period of time and it is hard to interpret.
What is new is the v early stages of a progressive alternative, ie: the Greens.
How successful will they be at catching some of Reform’s left-wing voter base?
I don’t think anyone knows, but things are moving quite fast as the Green leader gets airtime. Let’s hope his party don’t wreck his chances the way the YourParty seem to be sabotaging their leadership.
The Guardian published Hope not Hate’s data on this.
With the genuine left being in a serious minority based on this polling with respect to immigration, it’s time to pivot to advocacy for the voluntary system we had before the second world war. Then the left were empowered at the individual level and in small groups to bring in refugees and provide protection and welfare. Those who didn’t share their views on the benefits of immigrants fleeing peril didn’t get to impose their beliefs on others.
But how can that work now?
We’ve seen the pictures of notable politicians carrying signs saying #refugeeswelcome. We’re thinking of Yvette Cooper, Sir Sadiq Khan, Nicola Sturgeon, Jeremy Corbyn, Caroline Lucas, Diane Abbott and Tommy Sheppard. They weren’t alone, there were many members of the public too.
So we repeal all the laws and exit all the international agreements that get in the way of these noble sentiments and let the previous voluntary system flourish.
The only government involvement would be to verify identities, check for previous criminality that would disqualify you from the UK, issue a visa stamped NRPF and grant a national insurance number. The hotel problem would be solved.
Sorry – but this is a fantasy when there is no government support for those arriving, no legal right to stay and organised opposition to their presence. I think we need to address the big issues – and your suggestion does not.
I would love a deep dive into far-right policies and their effects on the population. Out of curiosity, I asked ChatGPT to sum up the cons of far-right governments (including leaning towards the far-right) across the world:
1. United States: Far-right politics have deepened political polarization, undermined democratic norms, and resulted in economic policies that benefit the wealthy while leaving working-class Americans vulnerable to global trade and automation challenges.
2. Brazil: Bolsonaro’s far-right government has been marked by authoritarianism, environmental destruction, poor handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, and increasing inequality.
3. Hungary: Orbán’s consolidation of power has led to democratic backsliding, media suppression, and corruption, while straining relations with the EU and undermining Hungary’s global reputation.
4. Poland: The PiS government’s judicial reforms and anti-EU stance have damaged Poland’s democratic institutions and strained relationships with the EU, while its social policies haven’t fully addressed growing inequality.
5. Italy: Meloni’s far-right agenda risks exacerbating Italy’s economic struggles, alienating the EU, and deepening social divisions over immigration and national identity.
6. Denmark: While economically stable, Denmark faces growing tensions over immigration and integration, with rising far-right rhetoric challenging the country’s traditionally inclusive welfare model.
7. United Kingdom: The UK’s shift towards far-right rhetoric, especially after Brexit, has led to economic uncertainty, social division, and tensions over immigration, while weakening ties with the EU and challenging the nation’s social cohesion.
It is a concern, especially the combined Reform/Tory vote.
Is it possible for Labour to deliver PR, given it wasn’t an election policy commitment — although it is well-supported in the party.
I think they probably wouldn’t do it without a referendum, or having it as a policy as part of an election manifesto. Not with Starmer as leader, anyway.
A referendum would be open to the usual right wing abuse, especially as it seems teflon Farage has now dropped PR as a Reform policy.
FPTP is becoming his “friend”, he recently told Sky News Australia.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/nov/03/nigel-farage-chameleon-xenophobia-reform
It just needs an act of Parliament. That is how we always make law in the UK. We change other election rules that way. We could this one too.
Richard, I accept the way it could be done, but is it the right way? It would be a major constitutional change, and those usually do not happen in the UK without a vote at an election or referendum.
As a lifelong supporter of PR, I want to see it, but it needs to be won at an election, otherwise, there would be a backlash. Labour should make it clear they want to move towards change, not just on the electoral system, but on a lot of things.
I’m against a referendum because it is open to abuse from the neoliberal establishment and far right, but doing it via an Act in this way, would look like it is aimed at simply stopping Reform. People won’t necessarily agree that this is a right way to do it.
We are in a mess, FPTP, the old two party system, and neoliberalism need to go, but the support of the people needs to be shown at an election to give it legitimacy.
We can change systems in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland by parliamentary choice. And referenda are not law creating and they cannot deal with complexity. We will have to disagree.
Could Labour really lose 370 seats?
Well, ask the Canadian Conservatives who went from a majority government (156 seats out of 295 ) to just 2 in the 1993 election.
This really is existential for Labour. Many members (like me) are deeply unhappy with the direction of travel, the incompetence, the factionalism etc.. We hang on as members in the basis that it is either Labour or Tory and the (vain??) hope that we, as members, have some say over policy and personnel. The latter idea is currently being shredded and the former looks like it might be destroyed at the next election.
You might be able to ignore your members if you are winner but when you loose?
I think they could lose that many, easily.
What would it take, how could it happen for Starmer, McSweeny and the like to go? Cany any true Labour take back Labour?
On the basis of this poll, a country that still gives credence to the Tory party is well and truly beyond help.
I want to leave.
I can understand the Reform popularity; but the Tories – the architects of much of our woes!!
I do not understand. I need to get away. They’re hopeless.
I see that the bank shares have gained hugely this morning as a result of avoiding a tax raid tomorrow. Is it any wonder that the pole is showing LINO languishing. I find myself wondering how this can be ,but of course its a party that is well practised at not delivering. Unfortunately I have seen it in practice for over 60 years.
The Tory grandees knew the party was unelectable after 2024 defeat and decided they needed to reinvent the party by taking over a new existing party free from the baggage of the last gov. They have now adopted Reform as that vehicle. It’s only a matter of time before a backroom deal is done, Farage is paid off, and Reform absorb what’s left of the old Tory party. I don’t yet know who will lead it.
I forgot to mention Labour are toast and Green/ libdem/SNP coalition is only hope for socialism in UK.