I was intrigued by the answers to the polls posted with yesterday's video on whether the UK can survive.
As is our usual practice, we posed similar polls on YouTube and here, and usually we get similar outcomes, although with a greater number of people invariably voting on YouTube. Yesterday, we did not. We got this result here:
The vote was clear: the Union cannot survive.
YouTube viewers were not nearly so sure:
Note that nearly twenty times the number of people voted (we had more than 100,000 views on YouTube yesterday, altogether). There, the result is a decided 'maybe'.
What is clear in both cases is that the Union cannot survive without reform. The YouTube result is most interesting for suggesting that to be the case. 77% think change will have to happen in some form.
I stress, this is not scientific. It does, however, make it clear that discussing what the processes of change should involve is a worthwhile activity.
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If a prime, although somewhat submerged, purpose of Austerity/Neoliberalism is to concentrate wealth for the already wealthy, much such show more stongly in the more peripheral parts of the not so united United Kingdom?
In other words, might unrawlesian “economics” be a significant factor in the current, and probably future, attitudes of the peoples of Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales?
Maybe, is all I can say.
Does the English population ever get asked similar questions by the main pollsters (about the Union, and the UK as an entity, rather than specific bits of it)?
Does the English population even THINK about the Union?
As an England-domiciled Celt, I’m not qualified to judge.
It is incredibly rarely asked
I don’t think the average English person cares, or even has any particular knowledge of the Union. It wouldn’t matter one jot to the English if Scotland and Wales were independent, but it would mean a great deal to the Scottish and Welsh. Personally, I think the only thing that would bother anyone is if there were closed borders and restrictions on working, but all of that is easily solved by maintaining some economic union. It’s not like we don’t have a model for how that would work, having been in the EU. There would also have to be some sort of defence compact, joint armed forces, and we have a joint head of state who could facilitate that, for as long as the monarchy lasts anyway. The break-up of the Union could actually be quite simple, but I can’t see Westminster allowing it to be simple. There is America to please, and NATO, with Scotland being a nuclear weapons site and vital for Russian containment. The Americans would get involved, and Westminster would jump to please them. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Americans haven’t interfered in Scottish independence before. Sturgeon’s downfall was so rapid and bizarre, I can’t help but be suspicious.
Most in Scotland want rid of the monarchy.
Scotland has a right to leave, blow everyone else.
Well before the Good Friday agreement there were effective working arrangements between Ireland and the UK – Irish citizens had the right to travel, work, (and vote) in the UK. Good and people moved freely across the border in Ireland (well before and during the period of EU membership). So that model existed. A Westminster govt might seek to impose penalties on a separate Scotland – but that would seem to be intended to ‘punish’ – I suspect all these things would be resolved. An independent Scotland doesn’t need to repay the ‘national debt’ after all….
On the US: Yes, the US would seek to maintain the status quo (and continued access to Faslane – US subs stop off at the Scottish / RN base today, I believe (having given up their own Gare Loch base)). Of course, if independence becomes a fait accompli then the US strategy would pivot – to one of seeking agreement / permission to continue access to the base. That would change the power dynamics – but it would not strengthen Westminster’s hand.
On whether the ‘average English person cares’ – as a Scot living in England, most English people (like people everywhere) have the same cares for themselves and others when they are engaged – but there seems to be a marked reduction in the general level of political awareness. The average omnibus passenger is Scotland seems to be much more politically aware – with a working memory. There is also a extremely parochial perspective in UK news outlets – but even more so with English ones. That doesn’t help improve engagement. I suspect that readers of this blog are not representative of the population in general.
Thanks
Robert’s mention of ‘the main pollsters’ jogged my memory about the weighting still applied by most England-based pollsters on polls relating to Scottish independence. They still apply weighting based on the 2014 independence referendum despite a significant generational shift in the electorate. Similar polls by Scotland-based pollsters show support for independence at c5 to 8% higher. The English polls get reported in the UK mass media while the Scottish polls appear only in The National newspaper. Just routine Perfidious Albany propaganda at work: repeat the lies enough until they become facts.
Agreed
I think the difference in the YouTube result hinges on the significant population difference of England as compared with any and all of the devolved nations. In Scotland’s case it’s 10 times higher and higher still for Wales & N. Ireland.
I think supporters of Scottish independence may be over represented in here. You have a following because of your National column.
I suspect the Scottish representation on this blog is lower than the 10 to 1 ratío of respective populations and their input here enables a reflection of Scottish opinions in UK political topics with the occasional gentle reminder that the UK isn’t just England.
The recent absence of John S Warren is a great pity as his contributions were well informed and thought out. I hope he is well.
So do I.