As a matter of policy, we are now posting some polls with related discussion on YouTube, with the material being derived from non-video content here, and that appears to be a surprisingly popular strategy, because I presumed YouTube users would always require there to be video content attached to a post, but it appears not.
This was yesterday's post of this sort:
I post it not to repeat the discussion, but to highlight the poll, in which at least 2,000 people cast votes.
The overwhelming sentiment is that the Caerphilly election result is significant, but there is a considerable reluctance to decide how significant it might be as yet.
I understand that. As I said yesterday, by-election results are fickle. Two things persuade me that this is not an aberration, or just a protest vote by the disaffected.
The first was the level of turnout, which at 50 per cent was high for any by-election. It seems that this vote mattered to people.
The second is how vertiginous the decline in support for both Labour and the Tories was, with Labour's falling by more than 30 per cent and the Tories' by 15 per cent (to near non-existence). I am sure precedents for falls of this scale, followed by a bounce back, can be found, but this was staggering, nonetheless.
A day on, I remain hopeful. The political map is, I think, being rewritten.
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I understand that the elections in Wales mean that any party that polls less than 11% overall get “null points” – sorry – no seats.
On this basis the Tories are very likely to be gone from Wales. Labour unless they can get their act together may well follow. However, there are signs of change wrt LINO
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/end-of-the-keir-show-how-senior-labour-figures-now-believe-starmer-is-already-toast_uk_68fb5cfee4b03bb1113194c0
If Starmer is deposed, ditto McSweeney. I wonder if either realise that – this opens options for a trip to the Hague (certainly if SF gets into power in Ireland McSweeney could find himself arraigned). The other question is: can Labour in Wales – detach itself from the LINO-Wezzie-Zionist clique – & be seen to do so by the Welsh electorate. I rather doubt it. I will be contacting the Labour “top brass” – since I have some projects that need to be driven forward and which would materially improve people’s economic condition. Be interesting to see if desperation opens their ears.
I won’t comment on the YouTube experiment except to say, “try anything”.
But Thursday’s vote in Caerphilly prompts me to make a suggestion, especially on a blog whose author is a “The National” columnist!
Nationalism – good or bad? or – does it depend?
The geographical entity of “The British Isles” offers much opportunity for reflection, with politics of Ireland, north and south, Scottish, Welsh, English nationalism, all looking very different, and with different historical contexts – enmity – border violence – religious conflicts – invasion, conquest – Union of monarchies – negotiated political Union – varying levels of racism – partition – Home Rule – devolution – legal systems, mainstream nationalism, and street-thuggery nationalism. We celebrate a Plaid victory but fear a Reform UK government, and reject Jade Fransen or Yaxley-Lennon. Is there an ethical difference between a St. Andrew and St. George flag or Union Flag?
I’m interested here not in the specifics of current UK politics of unionism/independence/GFA, nor in the phenomenon of Fa***e, but more in the ethics of nationalism, what is “good” nationalism, or “bad” nationalism, what part is played by either ethnic, linguistic or religious bigotry, where does “ordinary” politics come in, are “left/right” labels helpful, do “progressive” views excuse racism and bigotry or prevent it?
How does a “politics of care” function alongside nationalism?
Nationalism is inextricably bound up with the 2029 election.
I realise that behind my question lie various ideological visions, such as the internationalism of the left, the “Ummah” of Islam, the “all nations” vision of Christianity, the ideology of “Christian” nationalism, and each of us has views that are shaped by our individual contexts, of birth, language, religion and life-story. I’m asking the questions because I genuinely have an open mind on this – with positive and negative thoughts about it. I hope people might share, not so much their “views” but their lived experience, life stories, histories. I’m Scots born, and on mother’s side, Welsh (north) born father, brought up in Liverpool, I’ve lived mostly in England but no English blood in me, I’m a Protestant Free Church committed follower of Jesus.
So – Nationalism – Good or Bad – or – it depends? ” An ethical review of nationalism, within a politics of care.
There is a National article addressing some of these questions on Monday……
I wrote it last night
This would be really interesting. Recent events have been provoking thoughts around these issues in me and I have already posted on this blog so will not bang on again.
I am responding to the request.
A draft blog is developing…
In relation to the result at Caerphilly, I’m hopeful that the same can be achieved in next years Scottish General Election by the S.N.P. As far as the leadership of the Labour Party is concerned, I doubt if it will make one whit of a difference to us in Scotland who is in charge, as the sentiment seems to be pretty universal that they are determined to keep us under the thumb of Westminster.
Hmmm………………the other people watching that election will be the dabbling millionaire funders, who – being unable to look beyond their noses – I’m sure will cough up more money where necessary at the next GE to get their continuity candidate in place to enable them to rape the commonwealth of the country.
I want to be wrong – of course I do – but the sheer spending power of Reform and even the Tories cannot be discounted. In fact, if Labour’s rulers are now considered to be toast, that means more funding for Reform and the Tories who seem to be playing a game to out-vile each other and attract funding from millionaire extremists. Money talks unfortunately.
I will add this as well, in order to explain the extremism.
I think that human consciousness has entered an ‘end of days’ episode – an inkling – an acceptance even that things are beginning to fall apart. The party is over. Bills shoved under the doormat now have to be paid. For many of us, we are looking for leadership and solutions; others will want reassurance but also bury their heads in the sand.
But the rich I think see it as an end of days scenario too. But this is their opportunity to grab as much as they can for their own survival. Sod the rest of us.
So it is not that they are not listening OK?
They HAVE listened, seen the same signs as us and they fear the worst like many of us do, but in their pleonexia, their response is to use their power to look after themselves as much as possible. To the rich this is like a Harrods sale, and they are at the front to grab as much as they can to control what is left of the future. That is why they seem unable to stop and think again.
The stakes my friends are very high indeed – never mind sea and CO2 levels.
It is, I think, a sad situation when for the first time in a long while I think there may be hope for a return to politics focused on addressing what is important. Frankly, I have been frustrated and disturbed by the Tory governments we have endured but we essentially got what we should all have expected. However, I feel massively let down by Labour because as a supposedly socialist / left-leaning party, I think it was reasonable to expect they might stick to their roots and begin to tackle neoliberal dogma…and, at least, do better and kick austerity well and truly into the long grass.
One swallow doesn’t make a summer. However, the people of Caerphilly are to be praised for recognising the importance of community, politics of hope and improvement and conviction politics instead of the dog-whistle, fascist politics of blame. If nothing else (borrowing from Scotland’s national anthem) they have sent (a very arrogant) Reform home to think again. More importantly, they have demonstrated that Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves also need to think again. Their extension of Tory political (neoliberal) choices are killing this country and are simply playing to the tune of the obscenely wealthy who are controlling (the very thick) Trump and, by extension, the markets and the UK.
Let’s hope the people of Caerphilly show the people of Wales generally and the people of Scotland that the politics of hope, focus on poverty, etc., can win and that both Plaid Cymru and the SNP (despite proportional representation) get voted in with strong majorities.
My colleague asked me about who’s been in power most since WW2. Tories have most commonly had the balance of power, but clearly there’s been a fair bit of alternation between nominally right-leaning and left-leaning parties.
It does set something of an expectation that after a term or 2 of power, a right-leaning party will have leadership again.
However, if you look at party support polling on the likes of YouGove since 2020, then you do see a fairly stable picture between left and right. In Caerphilly some Labour voters clearly did switch from Labour to Reform, not just to Plaid, but UK-wide, the picture remains consistent with a view that generally the population as a whole leans slightly left, just more split between nationalist parties, Labour, Lib Dems, Greens, while right-leaning voters have generally been more aligned on a single party.
There will be some who don’t feel they can support Reform, so while Reform may swap with the Tories as the party of the right in terms of MPs, it may still split the vote, leaving them underperforming their polling even under First Past The Post.
What you might see is much more of a regional split, particularly if we end up in a coalition era. While some areas will be split Lib Dems may strenghen their influence on the South-West of England, Plaid on Wales, and SNP on Scotland. Of the ones they retain, Labour may retain the most seats in big cities. That may lead to more contrasting in the political voices, which would be interesting.
A little cautious hope from me, the caution due to my haziness about the specifics of Welsh politics.
But it looks as if the voters of Caerphilly took a look at the traditional two parties, and most decided “none of the above”. Voting on what they see going on in the country, rather than longstanding (and unthinking) loyalties.
Plaid claim that they attracted votes through actually having a vision and policies, definitely a message for the Westminster parties. The Greens are showing signs of becoming a party people can vote positively for, but none of the others. It would certainly be nice to think that Reform’s votes are just a temporary home for “not Tory or Labour” and will move once another party gives a reason to vote for something better.
Anyway, I will give my support for the voters of Caerphilly by eating some of their excellent cheese for my lunch!
The outcome of the Irish presidential election is another hopeful sign. Whilst a largely ceremonial post, the inability of the two main ruling parties to stitch up the vote should give today’s arrogant political classes a bloody nose. In the words of the song “we won’t get fooled again”! Now time to turn our attention to the mid term elections in Argentina……
Much to agree with
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