The Caerphilly Senedd by-election result yesterday was reported in advance as being on a knife-edge between Plaid Cymru and Reform, with Labour, the incumbents in all types of elections in the constituency over the last century, being forecast to be swept from power.
This was the result:
There are three things to note before considering the implications of this.
Firstly, labour was swept from power in the constituency. It was not consigned to the fate of all other parties with a national presence in the UK, but the result was ignominious, nonetheless. To pretend that Labour is now influential in Wales makes no sense at all when the swing against it is so glaringly obvious.
Secondly, this was not a knife-edge result. The victory by Plaid Cymru was emphatic. They deserve massive credit for what they have achieved. Since I believe Wales has a right to be a self-governing country, I am delighted for them.
Thirdly, Reform can be beaten. That is very clear.
So, what are the implications?
Firstly, it is apparent that people think Labour and everything to do with Keir Starmer's hopeless government are irredeemably bad. The takeover of the Labour Party by a group from the centre right, who have far-right tendencies on occasion, has been rumbled. Pinning a Labour badge on a candidate no longer means that people think that the person in question is interested in the well-being of ordinary people; they have realised that Labour now only serves the interests of a very narrow, extremely privileged group within society, and those with far-right and/or racist tendencies. As a representative of left-wing thinking, Labour is finished. I doubt it will recover.
Second, ideas, conviction, passion, dedication and plain straightforward belief matter, most especially when they are about something positive, rather than about something negative. Plaid Cymru, and their candidate in this election, evidenced all those things, and the win was theirs precisely for that reason. People want to vote for something. They do not want to vote against something. As a passionate believer in ideas and their importance in the political economy, I find this particularly heartening.
Third, Reform might be a part of protest, but they are not a party that people can believe in. A Senedd by-election is a perfect occasion to register a protest, but Reform could not win, simply because there was someone better to vote for. Reform can, therefore, be outmanoeuvred, and I believe they will be if parties elsewhere can demonstrate conviction.
Fourth, the Welsh nationalist movement is now as vibrant as the Scottish nationalist movement, and both are going to play a significant part in politics in the UK for some time to come, I suspect. The end of the so-called United Kingdom is on the agenda, aided of course by the significance of Sinn Féin in Northern Ireland. England had better come to terms with its diminished status and to no longer being a colonial power.
Fifth, if you're not going to win votes, under the first-past-the-post system, there is little point in standing. The Tories, Liberal Democrats and Greens were all embarrassed here. For the Lib Dems and Greens, this is not particularly worrying they know they have places where they are significant. But, the message might well be that this is the time to begin to build alliances, where actually standing down in favour of another candidate might be important. If these parties all accept that they will only achieve power through coalition, and that is likely to be true, then acting as if that is the case from the outset is an honest recognition of truth, rather than an exercise in forsaking power.
Sixth, the Tories are part of history. For them, there are no alliances that can now save them, even with Reform, because the public has already given up on them, as much as they have on Labour.
And, let's go deeper for my seventh point. There is a rejection of neoliberalism that is apparent in this vote. I stress, I interpret the vote for Plaid Cymru positively. I think it is right to do so. No one could vote for it to be against something. You could only vote for it to be for something. And as a party that has most definitely rejected neoliberalism, people are not just seeing a future for and in Wales in what it says, but also a future that rejects the values that have dominated politics for far too long. Neoliberalism is not dead, as yet, but it looks as though it is heading that way.
Even the turnout of 50% in a Senedd by-election is encouraging. When ideas take hold, people can be motivated by politics.
It would be too much to suggest that this election heralds a new era in politics. The history of by-elections is far too tortured to think that one unusual result always heralds change. They do not always. But this one is record-breaking simply for the scale of the defeat of Labour, the rejection of the far-right and the rise of a party of ideas to take a seat that changes the political landscape in Wales almost immediately. It is massively encouraging for all of us who have hope. I am imbued with a little more of that this morning. And that's a good start to any day.
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Agree with all, the result brightened my day. LINO in Westminister have two options: take the result seriously or dismiss. The next few months will be revealing in that respect (ditch the Starmer crew? how?). Next year promises to be interesting in Wales & Scotland & the election results will be offer a pointer for things to come.
I’ve not seen mentioned anywhere the effect of not supporting Port Talbot, but going all out to support Scunthorpe. For a Labour government to appear to do very little to support the loss of the last major industrial employer in South Wales will have been seen as a major let down, much as the Scots feel let down by the failure to save Grangemouth.
I don’t care much about the collapse of the Welsh Labour vote. I liked Mark Drakeford, but generally Labour have done very little for Wales. I am though very relieved they tactical voting saved a potential Reform victory. That gives me hope that enough people see the risk and are prepared to do something about it. It will be interesting to see how Reform react. I suspect they will go very quiet.
Not only Port Talbot, Hazel, but also the designation of HS2 as a project for England and Wales, when the new railway goes nowhere near the Welsh border, let alone contributes to Welsh transport needs.
I am aware of the political leanings of some of my neighbours in Gower, on the south coast of Wales. We have one of the few Tory Councillors for Swansea, hence a certain shyness in discussing politics. Anecdotal of course, but some of my friends and neighbours now admit to being ex-Labour on account of the internal party shenanigans, as well as the abandonment of any socialist principles, and will be supporting Plaid in the coming elections, with the express intention of thwarting Reform. If it can happen in Gower, it can certainly happen elsewhere in the Welsh speaking areas to the north.
Thanks
It’s over 20 years since I lived in Swansea, so I don’t have my ear to the ground, but I really don’t blame the Welsh for feeling very taken for granted by Labour. I’m in the South West now, and we get no infrastructure spending either. It was safe Tory seat territory, and there are few Labour votes to be won. I’m glad people are turning their backs on the 2 main parties and even more relieved Reform was tactically voted out of this one. It gives me hope. We need more decent politicians from the smaller and more honest parties.
I personally hope the message being voted for is more of supporting one another in difficult times than one of division. I was a Remainder and am a unionist, because I think a combined voice can achieve more on the world stage, and economic uncertainties can benefit from a wider safety net.
At the same time, London has got key investment, including things like Heathrow expansion, over rail electrification, etc. Some independence voice is not entirely underlying to me as a prompt to recognise regions that are getting left behind by comparison. A coalition with Plaid alongside SNP and others would be forced to listen more to regional needs, and that would be a positive change.
Aside from that it showed the divisionist politics of Reform are not the silent majority.
David Burton: You don’t say where you are located, but I am guessing that you are in England. Why do I think this? because you refer to Scotland and Wales as on a par with English regions – if you lived in either you would know that this is a very red flag inviting an outraged response. They are countries and demand their proper respect. I guess English residents are entitled to the view that they would rather Scotland and Wales remained part of the UK, but to describe yourself as a unionist under the current system amounts to saying that you think they should remain subordinate to the majority ie English people. I hope you can understand that as a Scottish person who favours independence, I found your post a tad offensive, but maybe I have got this wrong and that it is not what you meant, if so, I apologise. As for the world stage and a safety net, I think Scotland is well up to the job of providing both for itself, after all Ireland has done pretty well after casting off the shackles don’t you think?
I think you know I agree with you Sue
[…] Wales rocked the power of neoliberalism yesterday. […]
Congratulations, Plaid Cymru, on a marvellous result. This was wonderful news to wake up to.
Labour got what they deserved. I hope they’re smarting this morning.
Scotland next please!
🙂
The Caerphilly by-election is unequivocally good news. Firstly it shows that there is no majority for Reform’s toxic divisive policies. People were prepared to vote tactically to keep them out. The party best placed to keep them out was the party offering a more progressive vision and radical change. That should, if the Labour government listens, kill off the expectation that Reform can be defeated by copying them. The way to defeat them is to offer radical progressive policies. n Wales the party most likely to benefit from anti-Reform voting is Plaid Cymri. In Labour’s English heartlands it could well be the Greens. We could see a wave of Green councillors next May. The fear of this, together with Lucy Powell’s likely victory in the Deputy leadership election should strengthen the Burnham element within the Labour party. Will the Starmer government take note? We will get some indication of its response in the forthcoming Budget, I think. This is the first time in months that I have felt hopeful that the rising Reform tide can be stemmed and that there could be a decisive shift against neo liberal policies. I know this is only one by election, but it offers significant hope.
It does seem as if people are, in by-elections, learning about tactical voting. But it would be an uphill climb for Labour to get a tactical vote from me, and many others. That’s a problem.
While reading about the result, I came across this about our Chancellor, – “The chancellor is understood to be nervous about the political consequences of abandoning a manifesto pledge.” That made me laugh – she clearly needs a lesson from lying Ten Pledges Starmer, for whom abandoning pledges is a way of life. Or maybe she’s just lying?
I can’t get used to “politics as incompetent nasty lying evil farce” – because at the end of the day, it’s still people’s lives at stake.
WELL DONE CAERPHILLY!
KUTGW!
The genius mcsweeney will shrug the result off and not alter course. To change tack would represent failure in the eyes of the rulers of LINO.
Hopefully Scotland and Wales can achieve proper independence, free of the purse strings of London politicos.
I get the ‘combined voice & economic uncertainties’ bit, but when the union is so dominated by one nation and its dominant party, it’s no surprise that the smaller nations, with their own histories, languages & cultures, feel that they are both ignored and suffer interference in their supposedly devolved powers.
I prefer the prospect of Scotland making it’s own decisions asap and it’s hard to imagine we could make a bigger mess of running our own affairs than Westminster has done on our behalf and with little or no consultation.
My mother was born on Wales to English parents so perhaps in my dotage I might enjoy easy travel across the EU on a Welsh passport while my wife and our two sons do the same with Scottish one.
Either that when England goes horribly wrong oldest son & I will end up in a camp in Llanelli while my wife and our sons enjoy Edinburgh………..
🙂
I’m hoping to one day use my Welsh mother as an excuse to claim citizenship of an independent Wales, when America stops pretending and swallows England whole.
Next year they will have a sort of list system of voting for the Senedd. It would be interesting to see what the second choices of the voters of Caerphilly would have been.
Single transferable vote as in Scotland ( local elections) and Ireland (both north and south ) would be better I feel. England should have STV as well.
I think multi member constituency STV is the best way to go
Yes, the 2026 Senedd elections will be using D’Hondt
https://senedd.wales/senedd-now/senedd-blog/senedd-election-2026-what-is-the-d-hondt-formula-and-how-does-it-work/
https://seneddseatprojector-cymru.cavendishconsulting.com/
The above is a useful seat projector for the Welsh Senedd election. It allows you to put in an estimated share of the vote for each party and then calculates the result using the new voting system. If you put in the percentages each party obtained in Caerphilly Plaid gets an absolute majority, Reform gets more seats than Labour, but does not get a share in the government. Of course there is no guarantee that the vote share will be the same, but it is interesting to play about with the numbers and if your main desire is that Reform should be kept out of power it is encouraging. I don’t understand though how easy or difficult it will be for people to understand how to vote tactically under this new system.
Thanks
Think about it, for 2026:
Plaid Cymru in power in Wales
SNP in Scotland
Sinn Fein in Ireland
How long for the UK then?
Voters for the Senedd next year will NOT have the two votes they have now – one for a constutuency member, the other for a party. They will be asked to vote for a party only, with no say in the pecking order on the party list unless they have it via party membership.
Reading the Guardian summary from their liveblog, they quoted Ben Walker and the New Statesman – who went on about “Reform’s staunch progress” and ‘if this result can be replicated can they sweep everywhere?’.
Presumably they have heard of Wales and Plaid? Presumably they have witnessed a Plaid victory, that wasn’t a narrow ‘squeak through’ but a very impressive and substantial win against a Reform machine bankrolled by oil money and receiving endless media coverage.
This is an epic result for Plaid (when everyone was expecting a ‘massive’ Reform win).
Very, very poor from the New Statesman.
The New Statesman has been very poor for a number of years now. I was a subscriber for many years but cancelled a good while ago when Jason Cowley was editor.
It needs to be out out if its misery.
Where will the UK be then? Hopefully it will have a new Labour leader and PM, one who is prepared to embrace constitutional reform , work with other parties and move us towards rejoining the EU. I am not convinced that the break up of the UK is a good idea. I remember at the time of the Brexit referendum Timothy Garton Ash writing that a good outcome to work towards would be a Federal Britain within a Confederal Europe. I still agree with him, even though it may never come to pass. Sorry if this is a red rag to the Nationalist bulls, but I still regard myself as British rather than English and do not want to see my country break up if it can be avoided.
It would be nice to see a certain McSweeney lose his job on the back of this but I bet Starmer’s view is ‘Oh, it’s only Wales – and where’s my new pair of expensive glasses – I’m getting bored of these’.
The first glimmer of hope for months in a morning news headline. It comprehensibly wrecks the Callaghan/McSweeney/Starmer strategy – ‘we can drift as far right as we want – they still have to vote Labour – they have nowhere else to go’.
And it undermines the BBC’s blanket Reform coverage ‘ they are the only alternative’ – they only brought up the Russian/Reform connection once the result was in – didn’t question Reform about it during the election campaign.
Very good point Richard – people voting FOR something. The Plaid leader even had the courage and temerity to say peoples’ problems were not caused by immigration.
It’s becoming clearer by the day that Starmer and co are heading for the buffers. But its going to be nasty.
BBC Radio 4 news at 10am …….. the only candidate they gave a live quote to was Reform; not Plaid, the winner, or Labour, the historic loser, but Reform
Why?
Why, indeed
You say the Tories, Liberal Democrats and Greens were all embarrassed, but I suspect that quite a number of Lib Dems and Greens voted tactically for Plaid, in order to stop Reform. Probably some Labour people did the same. Inevitable distortions produced by FPTP: I wonder whether, conceivably, the government will wake up to the fact that next time they’re likely to be wiped out by the very system which gave them their majority. There’s still time to change it before the next GE.
That was my point – in tat case the other parties should acknowledge the fact
Richard I hope we do see of Neoliberalism but what worries me and perhaps you could comment on is that in fact we will usher in (perhaps in the short term) some thing far worse – the likes of Richard Tice and reform wanting to turn the UK into Dubai or Argentina and poverty to skyrocket?
Caerphilly proves that is not necessary
But the onus is on the LibDems and Greens to be the alternative in England
Is it not possible that YOUR PARTY could become the ‘alternative’ to the neoliberal stranglehold that the Conservative/Labour parties have exerted over the whole country for the past 70 years? It’s long past time to be ‘wish-washy’ about one’s beliefs, surely? The Greens/ Lib Dems have had their chance and not achieved much at all.
If that’s the attitude of Your Party it will fail, and deservedly so. We need coalitions of interest now, not stupid old Labour policies of sanctimonious left wing iconclastic and dogmatic isolation.
Well done Caerphillians !
In other news, Sheffield Wednesday is the “Owl in the Coal Mine” having been placed in administration today. Many other lower-league football clubs are teetering on the brink. Whether or not you like football, it is a shame to see such a big club with a long history collapse with a 12 point deduction.
My grandfather’s ashes were scattered on the pitch by my cousin some years ago, hence my interest.
Indeed
It has to be said that Welsh Labour are very strong on equality and human rights, sufficiently I believe, for them to disaffiliate from UK Labour. They have let themselves down through economic mismanagement and incompetance at various levels. Even with more adequate funding I think they would be struggling. People are totally ‘fed up’ with Labour.
It may be that Plaid will be equally progressive on social policy – perhaps they will continue the Anti-Racist Wales initiative. But they, like any party in power in Wales, will face continuing funding problems.
At the Senedd election next year the priority must be to vote tactically to keep Reform away from power in Wales – even if you have to hold your nose and vote for a party you have never much liked.
In response to Sheila B at 6:46pm on 24 Oct: The problem with a UK Federal state is that England’s population massively outnumbers all the devolved nations. The result at confederal level is that the devolved nations would be outvoted, just as at present. Take nuclear subs for instance: Faslane base & it’s nearby weapon storage sites are within 35 miles upwind of Glasgow – Scotland’s largest city. Rosyth is also where retired nuclear subs are left to decay within c15 miles of Edinburgh. Taking in surrounding towns villages, these 2 examples are a permanent threat to approx 60 to 70 percent of Scotland’s population
The vast majority of Scots want rid of this enormous threat to our very survival, but we have no powers over defence matters currently and no say in decisions. We’d be in exactly the same situation in a federal state. The same goes for UK energy decisions – Scotland doesn’t want & doesn’t need small nuclear power plants, but Starmer wants to impose them on us and we’d have no voice at UK state in a federal UK. There are plenty more instances, so federation is a no-go up here. End of.
Agreed