The electoral tables are turning. This is the latest opinion poll data from FindoutnowUK:
To the final decimal point, the Greens were actually a tiny fraction ahead of Labour. And as Owen Jones has noted:
The Greens are enjoying their best polling in their history. Just 13 months after winning the election, Labour is on its worst polling recorded in the post-war period.
Owen shows his youth: in the 1989 European Parliament elections, the party won 15% of the vote, but that is deep history and not a Westminster poll.
But what is most interesting is this data:
34% of people have no idea who they will vote for. Only just over one in five are actually sure they will vote for Reform.
Things look grim for Labour, but the truth is no one is convincing many people when politics is in such a total mess. Nonetheless, the Greens can say they're increasing in popularity, and that is a significant change when Labour are falling off a cliff edge.
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I’ve got to say it and I will – how can even 17% say they would vote Tory?
They are biggest bunch of political vandals in our nation’s history. They got us into this mess since 2010 if not before. Thatcher was jettisoned – Cameron brought her back.
What was it Frank Zappa said:- ‘Stupidity is the most plentiful element in the universe.’ Well, it seems like it to me.
What an asinine country we are.
It is totally beyond comprehension.
But, most are very old, and can’t remember why they do almost anything any more. That’s all I can suggest.
They vote Tory because they’ve always voted Tory – it’s what they do.
Perhaps that’s why Labour is still at 15% – it’s those that have always voted Labour and will always vote Labour.
Also, these polls probably don’t take into account tactical voting. Labour benefited from that last year and there will almost certainly be, in the absence of electoral reform, tactical voting at the next general election.
Craig
Back in the 1950s Adlai Stevenson, twice Democrat candidate for the Presidency, was told by a lady, ‘every thinking person is behind you.’
He replied. ‘but Madam, I need a majority.’
🙂
What I find most interesting in the data above is the gender gap amongst the ‘Don’t know’s: I would not have expected a 15 per cent difference between male and female voters.
Why not? Women both see bullshit more readily and tolerate it less easily than men.
That Richard is not my personal experience working in the public sector for 26 years now I’m afraid. I’ve seen both men and women go along with bullshit in equal measure. It’s been fascinating to watch.
My experience is different. Out on thje street women are not buying right wing bullshit.
I had an interesting (for some meaning of that word) chat last night with a Reform supporter, who happened to be a woman. Full on “our laws should be made by our MPs”, so leave the EHCR (never mind that it was drafted by British MP and lawyer Sir David Maxwell-Fyfe), cancel indefinite right to remain (never mind that that would destroy our health and social services), trans people are ill and should be cured (despite never having met a trans person), climate change is not important, etc.
Completely detached from reality… deeply terrifying! But this is where a broken fourth estate has led us. How do we prevent these people from destroying everything?
This is commonplace.
I did Talk TV at5 13.30 today. That is also truly terrifying in the views it spreads – which is why I did it for 20 minutes, challenging all the nonsense they talk.
Interesting how gendered and male the support for Reform is. 28% versus 17% is not within the margin for error. Labour too to an extent perhaps but much less significant.
Can someone explain why almost half of women are “don’t know” but only a quarter of the men? Can it be that no party is dealing adequately with issues that matter most to women and their families?
I am sure the last point is right
The truth is the Greens and the way policy is determined will come up with some crack pot ideas that will just sound silly in a manifesto. The most recent is to pretty much eliminate the private rental sector and no jail sentences for 2yrs or less. . Obviously they are taking far left voters away from Labour but there is a limit to their electoral appeal
Allowing private landlords to turn homes into an investment vehicle, and sending people to prison for short sentences that cause them to lose jobs and contact with family seem pretty crackpot to me?
I agree with you on the second point.
Note my prwevious comment on why some landlords shopuld survive.
Surely the “don’t knows” should be split into definite “don’t knows”, and “there is no party I could possibly vote for”? I would definitely align with the latter.
Maybe the YourParty can fill the void, but there seems to be internal division already concerning the staffing of Corbyn advisors with close links to Blairism and the current Labour shower.
“ Maybe the YourParty can fill the void…”.
Isn’t it more likely that the Greens will fill the void?
If Corbyn and Sultana were CIA plants tasked with undermining a left wing project how would they actually have behaved differently?
Regarding AlexC’s question, surely the question would make far more sense if the words “Corbyn and Sultana” were replaced by the word “Starmer”. Then we could contextualize some concrete facts, decisions and actions – not some hypothetical cheap shot, punching down on the Left as though they bore any responsibility for the current political shambles resulting from the last 14 years of Tory misrule.
The rate of increase in the Green Party membership is strikingly reminiscent of the Corbyn surge in 2016. My bet would be that these are the same people desperately looking for Leftist alternative solutions to the catastrophic neoliberalism which has been steadily laying waste to this country for the last 40+ years.
I would not rule out some kind of cooperation pact between MyParty (or whatever it comes to be called) and the Greens, before the next General Election. Zack P is proving to be quite charismatic. He will be an excellent antidote to the Farage/Tice poison we see being spread by Reform, cheered on by the BBC and – bafflingly – enabled by all three of the old MAIN parties. These are victims of “the Biden Disease”. They seem either unwilling (because of donors) or unable to grasp what the vast majority of voters need – not want – need from the govt. Most people on this blog, I suspect, see very clearly that “It’s the economy stupid!” by which I mean urgently addressing the cost of living crisis which is blighting people’s lives every day of the week.
The next election, which is still probably a long way off, is likely to be decided by tactical voting. The Libdems won many seats because they were neither Tory or Labour. But to win tactical votes your vote share has to equal or better the next contender. If this poll is correct, and the situation remains similar, big ifs, then the Greens have a good chance of replacing the Libdems as the best tactical option. And this is only fair, not that fairness makes a difference in FPTP, because the Greens have been suppressed for years by the voting system.
Very encouraging news for the Green party. They got 15 percent cent in the 1989 European elections and Maggie Thatcher panicked and held an emergency cabinet meeting!I tried to let Owen know this morning but his email address wasnt accepted and bounced.
I don’t mind seeing the Labour vote collapse, it’s the Reform figures that worry me. I realise people are desperate for change but can they not see that Reform are going to be even worse than Labour or the Tories?
Farage wasn’t just sunbathing when he was in Florida, chez Trump, and you must wonder what was cooking between them.
Last time people voted the Tories out, so Labour gained. Now people have seen that other parties such as the Greens can get elected, as well as independents, it’s more likely that the fear of ‘the other side getting in’ has dissipated somewhat. The next election could be a massive watershed in British politics despite our voting system.
I hadn’t really considered it before, but if the electorate is now legitimately split amongst 5 parties, the consequences of such a potentially small vote being needed to win a seat in a first past the post system could be very odd. I would feel far more comfortable with proportional representation keeping Reform under control than in the current system. Could be some truly strange results if the electorate remains this split. If Labour had any sense they’d use their big majority to enact voting reform now before it’s too late.
I agree
I said it two days ago and I’ll repeat: Reform are going to be hit very hard when the shite from the Trump authoritarian project in the US really hits the fan next year. The latest is Trump and co are “gifting” – because that’s what it is as they stand no chance of getting it back – not $20 billion, $40 BILLION to the extreme right wing “economist” who currently rules Argentina, and whose project is collapsing, leaving lots of Trump’s wealthy friends in great danger of loosing shed load of money, because the invested in his “success”.
Giving vast sums of money to your rich ideological chums and buddies is not going unnoticed (finally) by those deep red farming areas that are being hit hard by the effects of Trump’s tariffs. And, as importantly, push back is growing across all sectors (also, about time). With anger at those organisations that caved to Trump so early also growing. Chris Hayes has an excellent report on all this, which is well worth watching. https://www.msnbc.com/all
And then we have the Epstein files. The current shutdown is now being called the Epstein shutdown increasingly – why? Because the Speaker of the House – the incredibly smarmy, but increasingly sweaty, Mike Johnson, refuses to seat a new Democrat member of Congress, because if he does they will have the necessary 218 votes to pass a discharge bill that will the lead to a full vote on releasing ALL the Epstein files – with 100 Republicans saying they will have to support that vote otherwise they’re in deep trouble with their constituents. Of course, we can only guess at what there is in the files that so worries Trump and his minions, but it must be worse than what’s already known, otherwise why use so much political capital to keep it hidden. And when they material is released what then happens to those like the “Director” (in name only) of the FBI “Cash In” Patel, Or “call me Pam” Bondi? See this excellent segment for the detail: https://www.msnbc.com/the-last-word/watch/donald-trump-s-epstein-problem-got-worse-today-250067013913
So, unless people in the UK have completely lost their senses and don’t give a damn about the corruption and destruction of democracy in the US by Farage and Reforms King Donald the First, I don’t see them escaping Trump’s manure.
Much to agree with
Ivan is right. People in the UK are seeing what the far right is doing, especially Trump. Fascism has no friends among neutrals and sensible people in a country like the UK where blood was spilt to destroy it. To be called a fascist here is worse than being labelled a child molester. It is the ultimate insult from which, if shown to be true, is the end of any political career on these shores. The fascists might prosper in other lands, but certainly not here.
My impression of this poll, like most recently, is the danger that it represents.
The vote for Reform. Despite all the dodgy dealings — Farage’s Clacton home, incompetence in local government that they now run, and traitors who sell their soul to the Russians, they seem to remain bulletproof. When the latter was raised in parliament this week, Farage and Tice sat there laughing. And we all know what they would do in power.
The Tories are still picking up enough votes for them to hold the balance of power in a hung parliament. As most Tory members want a pact with Reform, the writing is on the wall. Between them, the Tories and Reform get 49% of the vote in this poll.
The opposition vote to Reform in this vote is now evenly split three ways. Under FPTP, that spells disaster and wipe out for all three.
Your Party is yet to join the battle. That will likely split the vote further, and help gift Reform a big majority, or coalition with the Tories.
The rise of the Greens is good, but if the vote is split unevenly across the country, they might get 20 seats. Right now, most of their battles are probably in Liberal held seats that were once Tory and will never vote for Labour or Reform. Winning seats from the Liberals will not stop Reform.
Both the Greens and Your Party need to damage the Reform vote to have any chance of making a difference. Thus far, there is little evidence this is happening.
34% undecided. Let’s not forget that over 40% didn’t vote last time anyway. I suspect it could be higher next time. As neoliberalism has made things worse, and FPTP fails to deliver real change, people have just stopped voting. They take the view, why bother, nothing changes. That non-vote is now higher than the vote any government gets.
The only good thing about this poll, and others, is that they show a total rejection of neoliberalism, in the form of the old two party system. People have had enough of that. But then 49% say they would vote for the extreme end of neoliberalism/road to fascism in Reform and the Tories.
I don’t know, what does that say about our politics?
I wish they didn’t just use “don’t know” as the category to catch those not currently giving one of the parties their vote.
And I wish they could recalibrate those highly misleading SNP/Plaid categories.
That highly important 34% includes:
– I don’t care/I don’t/won’t/can’t vote
– I do care, but I’m waiting for something better to come along – like Labour with another leader/new policies, or YourParty.
But it doesn’t – which lowers its value considerably.
I’m VERY politically engaged like most here, but I’m in the 34% (waiting for something better) group.
Much to agree with.
Count me into that second broad group.
While voting next time may be down by historic norms, I would imagine a lot of the don’t knows will vote. They may well be unhappy with the way they voted in the past, but clearly haven’t been convinced to support Reform.
I would look at this as being ‘everything to play for’. Greens and Lib Dems have a lot to gain. The left has slightly more support than the right (so long as you include Labour regardless of current form as it’s on the leanings of the party voters rather than the actions of the leadership).
Going from First Past The Post to Proportional Representation would address some amount of the disillusionment because people would see their vote of being able to change the balance at least slightly. It would also seemingly minimise the risk of a Reform government. Labour needs to wake up now, and put electoral reform on the table, before it’s too late.
I’ve been a Green supporter for a long time (one are of exception though is their anti nuclear power stance with the desperate need to reduce CO2 emissions) but tended to vote tactically to keep the Tories out, which is virtually impossible in the Huntingdon constituency. Now. I think I’m just going to vote Green.
Don’t forget Scotland.
If the Independents get a majority next year…
I really cannot see much difference between Reform and Conservatives. They are ideologically entwined. The money and media that once backed the Tories has realised that they are a busted flush. So,they are now backing Reform, hoping that the voters are not savvy enough to realise that they are being shepherded into voting for a continuation of failed policies.
Labour are worse, winning a GE on the back of promising things they really didn’t want to deliver.We must face facts; the old Labour Party has gone and cannot return because they have alienated their core support by changing the raison d’être of the party. Atlee, Gaitskell, Wilson, Callaghan, Prescott, Skinner, Benn, Foot, Corbyn and a legion of other Labour people would want no part of today’s Labour Party as it stands today. Starmer and his ministers have wrecked it.
There abides only the Libdems, Greens, SNP, Sinn Fein and Plaid Cymru, possibly Your Party, to save us from fascism.
I think a trend not to be overlooked is that Reform’s polling has now stopped rising, and is sitting highest at 35% (Find Out Now) and lowest (with the more accurate?) YouGov at ‘a low’ of 27%. Reform have now scooped up all the reactionary voters – especially younger reactionary voters who were the (not insignificant – a third of the working class have always voted Tory) segment of the population that often swung it for the Tories to win elections. (Phil Burton-Cartledge says in his Politics Theory Other interview here: https://soundcloud.com/poltheoryother/partyover).
In other words, Reform have used up their potential for growth – they have secured reactionary working age people and a large chunk of retired Tories (but not all), and haven’t reached the 40% mark in the polls that Labour under Starmer reached in 2023 (a supposedly *coughs* ‘left of centre’ party).
(Of course the danger is a Farage/Jenrick pact – which is likely, so agreed, Labour need to implement PR before the election, which sadly won’t happen under McSweeney/Stamer.)
However, Reform have reached their ceiling, and there is four long years to go until an election.
But under FPTP they are massive winners, whether they stagnate now or not.