This is another morning when I have to struggle with the question of whether comments made at the Conservative Party conference are worth noting here, and where I succumb to the temptation to do so precisely because comments made by Kemi Badenoch yesterday were so absurd that they cannot go unnoticed.
In a speech which cannot have convinced anyone that the Conservative Party has any further relevance within UK politics, Badenoch made two economic policy announcements that stand out.
The first is that she will abolish stamp duty. The aim, she says, is to help young people buy homes. What she has very clearly never done is look at the data on what the impact of changes to stamp duty have on house prices. Almost invariably, cutting stamp duty results in an increase in house prices. People do not put the money saved in their pockets; they simply use it to offer a higher price for the property that they want to buy. In other words, this change will not help young people get on the housing ladder. It will instead mildly inflate our currently nearly stagnant UK property market, which is what the Tories have always sought to do on behalf of their ageing, property-value-fixated, middle-class voters.
Then Badenoch built upon the previously inane comments from her shadow chancellor, Mel Stride, promising that the Tories will cut government spending by cutting benefits, implementing racist policy, and reducing the size of the civil service, when they know that they never found ways to do this when in office, and by other equally absurd or repugnant measures. But the sting to all of this was in the tail. What she said was that at least half of all savings would be used to cut the size of government debt, as if this was somehow an objective of merit in its own right.
What she actually means is that she is going to suck more money out of the economy in the future, destroying income within it, inevitably reducing GDP and the well-being of people in this country, whilst in the process displaying her complete ignorance of macroeconomics, multiplier effects, how money and debt work, and a great deal else besides.
The list of charges to lay against the Tories is now very long, starting with 14 years of failure in government and a complete inability to learn from their own lessons of failure, to now proposing this sort of absurd policy for the economy, which can only result in reduced well-being for the vast majority of people in this country.
I admit I never thought the day would come when the Tories would cease to be politically relevant in the UK, but that prospect is now near.
I am aware that some are deeply troubled by this. I noticed Zoe Williams in The Guardian recently complaining that those celebrating this possibility from the left should be profoundly concerned because we need a centre-right party to oppose the far right. In the process, all she revealed was how weak her own political analysis is.
The fact is that we no longer need the Tories as a centre-right party, as Labour has effectively replaced them in that role. They are the political alternative to the far right now because they operate on the centre-right.
What we need, and what she failed to notice, is a genuine left-of-centre party (and not a centre-left party, which in the UK is inevitably a neoliberal party) that can deliver real change for the people of this country, of which change she is no doubt frightened.
I am not frightened of change. I wish it would happen. But if the demise of the Tories makes clear that what we lack in the UK is an effective left-of-centre party, and one does really emerge as a consequence, then I am happy for that to happen.
What I am sure of is that the Tories are over. They really are too incompetent to survive — as even former Tory grandees like Michael Heseltine would now agree.
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[…] descended into neoliberalism. It is hard to see a way out for it from an abyss this deep. Perhaps, like the Tories, it too now needs to be consigned to history, its day being […]
I agree, the Conservative party has destroyed itself. BUT – the baton has been passed on to labour who have in large measure stolen the ground they for so long stood on.
There are some positive moves to improve the lot of working people in the Employment Rights Bill among a few other small good things they have done. I like the inheritance Tax on farmland changes and also Employers NI threshold changes as it will nudge employers to offer more hours to existing employees rather than employ another person on 15 hours a week!
But the top of the Labour party do seem to be very tory in outlook.
The other aspect of ending stamp duty is that the rich buying expensive houses benefit far more than those at the bottom end of the market.
The current stamp duty rates are:
£0-£250,000 (£425,000 for most first-time buyers) = 0%.
after April £0-£125,000 (£300,000 for most first-time buyers) = 0%
£250,001-£925,000 = 5%
£925,001-£1.5m = 10%
£1.5m+ = 12%
The Liberals will take over Tory seats at the next election. They are just as bad being a neoliberal party They supported
austrerity cuts introduced by Osborne cheered on by Clegg who broke his pledge to abolish student fees. Also enacted the disastrous privatisation of Royal Mail by Vince Cable.
I will never forgive Clegg and his gang for chickening out of demanding the introduction of real PR when they had Cameron by the goolies.
It is difficult to see any way back for the Tories. The good wife commented to me the other day that Starmer’s Labour Party seems no different to Cameron’s Tories. I did watch the Green’s new party political broadcast with Zac Polanski walking around the back streets of Salford and I was vey impressed. So too was the spinmeister Alastair Campbell on the latest RIP podcast. May be all is not lost.
I enjoyed my meeting with Zach. I am hopeful
“Starmer’s Labour Party seems no different to Cameron’s Tories.”
I would say Starmer is somewhat less socially progressive and economically they’re virtually twins
If you use half of any savings to cut government debt surely any new borrowing would have to be less than the savings, if new borrowing exceeds savings debt would increase. To work this would require a near balanced budget and huge cuts in public expenditure or a massive increase in taxation.
I can see the you can decelerate debt growth but this would some management.
Here is something I find interesting.
Current membership of political parties. Falling for Tories, Labour and Lib Dems. Reform are probably falling as well. Greens up and “Your” Party claim 700,000 signed up.
Labour Party – 333,235 (309,000 reported by some). Down 37% since 2020.
Reform UK – 260,000 – I think they were over 300,000 at one point.
Conservative Party – 131,680 (eligible voters from last year’s leader election) – Down 40,000 from 2022 leadership contest.
Green Party – 90,000 – Up 54% from 58,322 last year.
Lib Dems – 60,000 – Down from 118,000 in 2020 (Brexit surge).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy5069p70x2o
Your Party claimed 700,000 “signed up”. No full member numbers yet.
The Neoliberal parties not doing that well, while all the growth appears to be for something different.
Tories on their way to oblivion.
I wouldn’t normally post anything from the Daily Mail, but…
Poll shows two in three Tory members want a pact with Reform at the next election.
Some 64 per cent support an electoral pact in which the parties would agree to not pit candidates against each other in target seats, while 31 per cent do not.
73 per cent supported a coalition government with Reform in a hung parliament.
https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/other/poll-shows-two-in-three-tory-members-want-a-pact-with-reform-at-the-next-election/ar-AA1NYCbt
Thanks
Valuable stuff
While I originally signed up to Your Party, and still pay a monthly donation, I haven’t signed as a member as they require that you not be a member of any other political party. I think that is a short-sighted decision.
I am not sure Labour can entirely become a replacement on the centre right. Yes, its policies are largely consistent but I don’t think it will ever have brand acceptance amongst dyed in the wool Tories. So there remains the risk that Labour cannot replace the votes it loses from people like me on the left with moderate Tories on the right.
Actually, if you look at the historical pattern, this happened before with Thatcher. Back then, wet Tories went to the Liberals/Lib Dems even after the Labour Party reformed under Blair. The South West and the Liberal strength there is the evidence and I suspect we will see that repeat.
Williams is still wrong though. It will be the Lib Dems occupying this space and perhaps enough tactical voting with Labour to hold.
I often look at the Conservative Home homepage for some light entertainment. The comments are out of this world and full of ridiculous nonsense like this:
https://share.icloud.com/photos/02cqlVc_91zxz8eFGAAbsKwNA
It really is another world for the champagne slopping Tories!