Talking of 2008, as I have this morning, I found a post I wrote on this blog right at the start of that year, in which I suggested:
I suspect that the ethical malaise of the tax profession and of accountancy in particular will become ever more obvious as turmoil in the City continues throughout the year (as I expect will happen).
I added:
Tax havens will continue to attract considerable publicity, especially as people realise to what extent they have been used to obscure the reality of financial transactions which have real cost to society. They will also have a torrid year financially as the securitisation, hedge fund and private equity markets that provide serious quantities of business for some havens have a tough time financially and all become subject to demands for substantially enhanced transparency, which they will not be able to satisfy whilst working from tax haven locations.
And I concluded:
However, I think there is one reality we all expect in 2008. The economy will have a difficult year, and the financial sector will have the worst year it has had for a long time. Much of this will be because of its own past abuse. It will be a tough time, but it does provide the opportunity for building a better future. That's what we have to grab in 2008.
I was right.
There are many who like to say that I have forecast seven of the last three financial downturns. Few were as clear as I was about 2008. I rest my case.
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Agreed. One point, second line should “this year” be “that year”?
Corrected, thanks.
Thank you, Richard.
On his way out of the Bank of England, lifer and deputy governor Paul Tucker, with whom I worked a bit, gave a series of talks.
Tucker disputed that no one saw 2008 coming and would like a public enquiry and the papers unsealed, i.e. not wait for release until the 2030s or longer.
Tucker said he was threatened with dismissal in 1999 for saying the Bank of England and FSA, led by Howard Davies*, should work closely and in 2004 when the impact of Visegrad 4 EU entry began to be felt in the labour market and asset prices bubbled.
The likes of Tucker want their day in court.
*I will let Richard chuckle about and comment on Davies, but will say I don’t understand what people see in him.
* Neither do I, at all…
At least a dozen people predicted the 2008 Great Financial Crash.
“No One Saw This Coming” Understanding Financial Crisis Through Accounting Models, by Dirk J Bezemer (2009)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/15892/
You are probaby right in your predictions. The mainstream media do seem pretty clueless about economic history and do not realise that once confidence drops, financial markets are bound to fall and panic can set in a la 1929.
In April 2008 (at my brother’s birthday BBQ) I said, ‘it’s all going to go horribly wrong, the banks are lending silly money again.’
As I’m retired from the day job I no longer have my finger on the pulse so I’ll have to rely on your predictions for the next one.
FWIW, what is going to happen as a result Reeves actions on city regulation will be like night following day.