What a day, yesterday was.
Trump declared economic warfare on Mexico, Canada and China, imposing tariffs of 25 per cent in the first two cases. and twenty per cent on the last, with minor exceptions on Canadian oil.
Companies associated with Blackrock have said they will buy disputed locations in Panama, making that financial services behemoth an agent of the Trump administration (and note, it probably also manages your pension).
In an act of gross pettiness, Trump denied Ukraine military aid, directly threatening lives.
J D Vamce rolled out yet more abuse of Europe, whilst simultaneously demanding that it act.
And in his speech to Congress, Trump promised he had only just begun his programme of wrecking government and the world.
Political incoherence on this scale is unprecedented from the USA, and frankly almost anyone else.
What to make of this? I suggest that the actions support my claims that:
- Trump wants to break the US federal government.
- In its place Vance wants to deliver a while, male, Christian theocracy.
- Trump wants to deliver Ukraine to Russia.
- Trump is seeking a Russian blind eye to his plan to annex Canada, Greenland and maybe parts of Panama.
- Trump's administration wants to undermine European democracy as it is a threat to the plans he and Vance have.
We also have to be realistic that these actions make clear:
- NATO is over.
- The international financial order is likely at an end. The roles of the World Bank and IMF are likely to be at an end, and that has massive ramifications for developing countries.
- The World Trade Organisation is also over.
- The pretence that the UK has a special relationship with the US is meaningless.
There are other consequences:
- World financial markets will react. It is inevitable.
- US inflation is likely to rise.
- The dollar will, in the end, fall in value.
- US interest rates might well rise, creating massive problems for many developing countries.
- The dollar's role as a reserve currency must be in long-term doubt.
- The Trump administration's ability to find itself and its planned tax cuts is threatened: without the dollar being a reserve currency, it may not work.
And let us not forget:
- Ukraine will find it harder to defend itself.
- Putin must be laughing himself silly.
- The rate of change in US support makes a managed European response impossible, and that must be deliberate.
- Starmer remains all over the place, as is the EU.
Chaos is not an adequate word to describe all this, and I have only scratched the surface with this summary.
Trump is doing what Musk wants: he is seeking to destroy, and right now it looks like he will succeed, especially for the USA itself.
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oy! – you nicked my discussions points for Friday.
In the case of Starmer – I am reading “Get In” obvs the writers had an agenda – but what becomes clear, the current crew have little or no capacity to address what is going on. Starmer is a-political and dreams of Washington 2014, McSweeney is a local gov wonk focused on “The Voter” which works well for local gov but little else. The B.Liarites like Starmer live in the dreamworld of 1990s and Obama era. We now live in diff times. Russia is run by the KGB for the benefit of Russian oligarchs to a script that wants to MRAG – Make Russia Great Again. It would like Europe as something it can kick around (= a reprise of the end of WW2).
Not this time. The EU & the UK need to come together, they need to show both USM (US Mango) and Ruzzia that it can act. In the case of politicians in the USA – death threats are escalating against elected politicos and it is only a matter of time before the killings start. The EU and UK can do nothing about that, ior Canada or Greenland or Panama. It can do something about Ruzzia.
“The UK & EU need to get together”
Nope. The UK needs to remove its head from that orifice and come back to the fold.
What fold?
If I was in Taiwan I would be worried about this turn towards large countries annexing adjacent territory when expedient. If Russia and the US can do it, why not China, India, Brazil.
You suggest that the the time of the IMF, World Bank, WTO, etc may be over. I’m not so sure about that, although their influence is clearly on the wane as they depend on the voluntary contributions and compliance of their members. The US has historically played a leading role, using its soft power and the contributions of other members to leverage and advance its policy positions. The WTO is based in Switzerland but I wonder if Washington DC is still the right place for the first two to be based. Perhaps the UN should be reconsidering it’s base in New York. Why should an international body be based in a place that is hostile to it? But on the other hand perhaps leaving would encourage a complete rupture. So I’d look out for the head office shrinking in scale and role, and subsidiary offices being quietly expanded.
I completely agree. Relication seems to be vital.
Rachel from Customer Complaints wants to make cuts to welfare I see.
No one will complain about that.
One of the best responses ordinary folk could contribute to opposition to this Trump fascist insanity was given air in The National Scots newspaper today by a Scot who has created the free http://www.bankrupt.org site that provides comprehensive listings of non USA suppliers of goods and services. I tried it out and found it useful. More groundswell like that to counter the fascist drive by the likes of Trump and his fascist oligarch mates or supporters could be a good salutory thing all round to take business away from the US for supporting fascism.
Is that the correct website link?
Chaos is correct.
It is only time that is going to reveal all and this time will have to be lived and witnessed by all in some way.
We can only hope that this time we will have the right answers when the penny drops.
I just wish that we had a competent government. We don’t even have competent political parties. We do have weak authoritarians in power, and a big USA presence in the military, the economy and the body politic. As for Canada, I suspect that Trump has killed off Poilevre’s chances. Trudeau has the zeitgeist, and any successor can only benefit. I predict a war we didn’t expect at some point, whether skirmishes in Greenland, Panama or even Canada.
Today I talked to my biggest 16-17 year old class about the situation at the end of our normal lesson. Only 2 out of 21 had any inkling of US happenings, but 17/21 had some knowledge of Farage!
Scarey
I think it reasonable to take the view that Trump can not ever be relied on and sadly unlikely that USA will be a responsible global player for the long term. So the UK and Europe needs to adjust painful although that will be. So when does UK call out/drop Trump? Is there an argument for leaving that as long as possible while working on the new required approach with Commonwealth and Europe? Could that be Starmers strategy? And do we need to protect our Nuclear weapons capability or not? And we must engage with the World through the soft power particularly BBC news. Tough times.
Douglas