I rarely feel sorry for Keir Starmer, but I do this morning. He is hosting an eighteen-nation summit meeting on Ukraine in London tomorrow. President Zelenskyy will be present. Starmer will have more difficulty working out his position for that meeting than I am in planning this post.
Let's reflect on what happened yesterday.
First, like many other commentators, I think the debacle in the White House last night was stage-managed by Trump and Vance. Nothing Zelenskyy did or said would have appeared to have justified the onslaught that came his way. I know the far right will say otherwise - as was already becoming apparent in news reports last night - but the extraordinary nature of what happened looked like a pincer movement or sabotage to me.
Second, this leaves Zelenskyy, and Ukraine, in what can only be called a perilous position. Trump's best friend and handler, Putin, will be absolutely delighted by what has happened. His hand has been considerably strengthened, as I am quite sure Trump intended.
Third, Europe is in an extraordinary position. What is it going to do without sufficient military power and with Russia and the USA denying it access to any of their so-called peace discussions? What do they do now?
Fourth, note that Trump pointedly refused to defend the right of the Baltic states to independence during questioning before the fracas finally broke out last night. It is quite clear that he was sending an unambiguous message to Moscow, and the world. In that case, the issue facing Europe is not just about Ukraine. It is much bigger than that.
Fifth, let's not pretend that NATO, special relationships or anything else matter any more, at least with Trump. All that has gone.
Sixth, quiet heads now need to consider (war game, to use an unfortunate but apt term) just what might happen. When Russia has advanced just 55 miles in the last year, how do things really change on the ground now, given that it seems that Russian supply lines are also stressed.
Seventh, is Europe united? If not, what will that mean?
Eighth, where might the UK be on any such division? Will it side with France, which is most likely to push what I might call a post-NATO line, given its long term position on alliances with the USA (about which it has always been lukewarm), or will its sympathies be elsewhere, or will he play the charlation (again) and pretend that it can still be a broker with the USA?
Ninth, how do these states deal with all this in a day?
Tenth, Zelenskyy said he would quit last week in exchange for peace. Is that a realistic option now? It would not feel good, I admit. But do the realpolitiks of this situation require it?
Eleventh, I hope someone has the sense to tell Charles Windsor to withdraw his invitations to Trump. These now look like an act of total foolhardiness that maybe the monarchy could not survive.
I could go on. The honest answer is, that this morning I doubt that anyone knows the answers to all these questions. There will also, very obviously, be others I have not raised.
But what we do know is that Trump's chosen form of management, which is to create chaos and then see what happens, is utterly unsuited to situations like this. If, in that case, there is a person to blame, it is undoubtedly Trump. The world would not be in crisis now but for him.
And let me add another final thought, for now. If Trump thought that he could get a deal yesterday, then he very obviously failed. His own, self-promoted ability clearly let him down. He has egg on his face, but maybe that is the least of our problems, excepting that he is the sort of man who will want revenge, and that is what is so worrying.
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War gaming. In a day?
This is going to involve many minds greater and more experienced than mine. Having said that I see the following.
UK distances from USA. Starmer is caught in a Reform word salad mixed by Farage from an original russian recipe.
Depending on how KS and the other 17 nations handle it, and that is a crystal ball I wouldn’t know how to read, I can only see several outcomes involving states with right wing alliances are pushed or gravitate towards Putin and the remainder are maligned by their domestic right wing press.
I’m hopeful that noises off have shown little real media support this side of the pond for trump and published pieces will merely reflect an ambivalent reportage or the influence of bad actors.
Like you I agree I would not enjoy Starmers role in all this right now, he has been played by Trump, buttered up with feigned allegiance where if we snub him it looks less than diplomatic. I’m trusting there are enough avenues left for us to have back channels to the US administration to understand where it leaves Europe.
A week or so ago I had a thought of calls between DJT and Putin and Netanyahu agreeing VP invade Ukraine and BN allow the incursion to happen into Israel and then, with election support to allow a win, DJT mixes the political landscape up to tip the world into chaos where he appears to be the saviour (in his mind at least) and BN and VP reap the money with him.
Ultimately I believe this has taken us closer to further conflict. History teaches us that after world economic turmoil the right rises and war is the outcome. 2008 was our touch paper and was just a slower fuse than we have seen before.
Thanks for the thoughtful piece. We need more insightful commentary like yours.
Thanks
Trump will use the crisis to secure all he wants from a trade deal with the UK, and Starmer will acquiesce. So, goodbye key public services like the NHS? Massive deregulation and lower standards? Goodbye to labour, environmental and consumer protections? Alignment with US standards and loss of autonomy for the UK? Provisions favouring massive US investment? All of the above?
Then we find out the Quislings and also what is needed to resist. There are templates from history, especially asymmetric warfare – which BTW, the UK security services have wargamed in anticipation of a popular uprising against the Tories around 2018.
The EU foreign policy chief says “the free world needs a new leader”. No it doesn’t. What it needs to do is recognise the US, and the dollar, are no longer a reliable partner in any international agreements, and get on with constructing a truly co-operative international order, with shared fiscal standards and an international trade currency that facilitates not exploitative ‘investment’, but sustainable development – it needs to build on the seeds of international collectives like the European and African Unions, and, yes, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. What it doesn’t need is another self-proclaimed ‘leader’.
The Euros have the money Euro200bn of Ruzzian assets.
The Euros have weapon systems several better and cheaper than US stuff.
The Euros don’t have Starlink. They need a solution to that fast. I can think of one or two.
There is a solid block of Scandics/Baltics, Germany has, hopefully woken up, ditto France. Benelux, Spain is on side. Italy? Czech OK. Poland will be wondering what would happen to them.
The rest don’t count. That is more than enough to stuff the Ruzzians & if needed bomb them back to their international borders.
All Russians in Europe, interned for the duration. Anybody supporting Russia is an enemy of the state.
Are you joking?
I doubt Mike is
And let’s be clear, despite Trump’s claimn, Europe has provided more assistance to Ukraine.
Are you mistaken?
I am niot taking sides. I am asking.
Trump gave an interview last night – outside somewhere – whilst President Zelensky was being interviewed by Fox News. Trump was extremely angry that President Zelensky wasn’t ‘nicer’ about Putin. The implication – if he had been, things could have worked out differently. Of course, President Zelensky had already made it clear, in the Oval office, that Putin was no friend having murdered, tortured and kidnapped both adults and young children from Ukraine.
Simultaneously, Rubio was withdrawing support to keep Ukraine’s grid repaired.
Trump is Putin’s asset and has been compromised by USSR/Russia since the mid-80s. Trump is open about his support for Putin and Russia; it’s no longer just rumours.
So the US doesn’t arm Ukraine. Does the US instead start arming Russia? It’s not much of a stretch to imagine that could be on the cards. This mess appears to be heading in that direction.
Doesn’t it seem strange not to invite the Baltic States, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia to today’s conference? A deliberate snub? Surely their presence is essential.
I am surprised
From what I read in today’s Herald newspaper the Baltic states will “attend” remotely, so they’ll rightly have a voice. Quite apart from simply keeping them onside, they have deep personal experience of Russian annexation and, understandably, can’t stomach the possibility of that happening again.
Thanks
European leaders need to announced a combined move to making funding decisions on the basis of a war time economy, and to declare that they will buy from the countries in the right side of this.
There needs to be a commitment from people to stop buying and consuming American goods and services as much as possible until things change. Given the power they’ve been wielding, that likely needs to include minimising use of products from US tech giants.
The free world can easily do without US cars. Are people also willing to drop Spotify, Netflix, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, Google, etc? That’s difficult.
It will be interesting to see how China responds, because recently it’s been less cost to Russia than Trump has and many of the products that would be the main tech alternatives are Chinese
It’s worse than you think. Russia and China are closely aligned. China is busy flexing its muscles (which may not be as sophisticated as those of the USA but there are more of them) throughout the South China Sea and beyond to Australia and New Zealand. China has been nibbling at Australia for years and wants its mineral wealth, there is currently a task force from China circumnavigating Australia and conducting live firing exercises which the Aus/NZ navies have no hope of defeating that small part of the Chinese navy. I would say the defeat of Autocracy and fascism is a lot more difficult than we think it is. I might suggest also with the backing away from Asia, Africa is also on the list of prizes to be fought over by these nations. Stop thinking Europe and the west, you are missing a whole ball game elsewhere.
You might have noticed,I have not.
“Sixth, quiet heads now need to consider (war game, to use an unfortunate but apt term) just what might happen. When Russia has advanced just 55 miles in the last year, how do things really change on the ground now, given that it seems that Russian supply lines are also stressed.”
Thinking on this I decided to take to google……
This morning I listened to some retired military types (General Ben Hodges) and read up on russian losses and current capabilities at https://www.understandingwar.org/.
Institute for the Study of War
It would appear that Russia has so far lost……
Russia Total losses- 20551, of which: destroyed: 15542, damaged: 861, abandoned: 1134, captured: 3014
which breaks down like this….
Losses excluding Recon Drones and Trucks – 16105, of which: destroyed: 12030, damaged: 758, abandoned: 1081, captured: 2236
Losses of Armoured Combat Vehicles [Tanks, AFVs, IFVs, APCs, and MRAPs] – 11937, of which: destroyed: 9048, damaged: 367, abandoned: 986, captured: 1536
And on top of that one million men either dead or injured.
New Russian tank building is producing about 30 units a year
so the majority of their effort goes into repairing damaged older models and keeping the good ones going.
Estimates are that circa 500,000 of it’s brightest and best young people fled Russia at the start of the war.
Current thinking seems to be that Russia can keep up it’s war effort for another year to 18 months at absolute maximum before both the military and economy fail altogether.
Experts at the Institute for the Study of War expected Russian forces to focus on seizing frontline Ukrainian towns and cities over the winter –
It has taken a year for Russia’s troops to advance about 40km (25 miles) west – Ukraine was forced to withdraw from Avdiivka, just north of Donetsk, in February 2024 after months of fighting.
With an economy roughly the same size as Spain’s it is obvious Russia cannot hope to keep this up indefinately.
Europe can with it’s combined economic strength just grind Russia to a halt.
What would happen then? who knows but I think the Kremlin was well aware of all this which is why it needed it’s asset in the white house to pull the rug from under Zelensky and Europe as whole.
Those figures are similar to those I read
I can’t really say how Russia wins this unless US withdrawal gives it air superiority
Agreed Richard without US aid Russia & therefore putin cannot win. Hence their white house asset has to come in to play.
That western European leaders appear to not be being briefed by their intelligence services on this seems incredible.
I for one don’t believe it either they’re not believing it or not acting on it because they are corrupt.
There is another possibility and that is the intelligence services themselves are corrupt and have raised no concerns. Either way it doesn’t look good
The Moscow Times reports a big shutdown in Russian industry with a severe decline of production of anything but armaments and also claims that statistics showing lower rates of bankruptcies and company failures, in Russia than in the US or Europe, don’t give a true picture. Many companies in Russia that go bust never appear on official records but are quietly dissolved and creditors paid off. With so many lives lost and a struggling economy Putin must have been eagerly anticipating Trump’s election and having a US president in his pocket to come to his rescue by stopping the war. Watching Trump and Vance bullying and taunting Zelensky made me so angry, sad for Zelensky having to endure it and also very ashamed that someone who is supposed to be our ally should descend to this. Seeing Trump, emboldened by his Putin connection, show his true face to the world was also disturbing and frightening. If this isn’t a wake up call for our government, that prompts urgent response, then I despair. I hope there will be no more talk of a US trade deal while the tyrant and his coterie are in power and that Starmer will focus on our trade, security and defence relationships with Europe. Given the seriousness and danger of the situation surely Starmer can crush any right wing media opposition to our reaching out to Europe. Channel your inner Churchill Sir Keir!
The question – or the elephant – in the room must be the ramp to peace. Having been fans of trying Ukraine’s luck on the battlefield, the US is clear that that road is dead.
Should UK or France enter the war, the answer will be nuclear.
So how to get to peace? War, the battlefield, is hardly realistic. So.
It’s time for talks, but I fear he lacks the statesmanship.
Who lacks the statesmanship?
Stämmer lacks the statesmanship to bring European powers to push for peace. He will probably take us to nuclear war.
I don’t know if yesterdays debacle was “stage managed ” or not. I think normally the negotiating goes on before the press conference in the Oval office that is really supposed to be warm and self congratulatory once the hard work of negotiations is over. That kind of implies to me that Zelensky refused to succumb to pressure in private so they thought they could strong arm him in public. I guess we’ll only know as the details filter out… it was a shameful spectacle of US raw power used against someone they thought they could bully. However this isn’t the first instance. The US has been on the wrong side of the law for a long time.. currently in its support of Israel’s “plausible genocide” and violation of all kind of national and international laws. Maybe Trump will do us all a favor and finally strip international complicity away from the US and something better may emerge? Hope so.
Let there be a truce long enough for all the people in Ukraine to vote, each of them, whether they want to remain in Ukraine or in Russia.