Top-down thinking tells us what we can't do because it assumes things aren't possible, which is precisely what our politicians keep saying. Is it time to liberate ourselves with some bottom-up thinking?
This is the audio version:
This is the transcript:
Do we need bottom-up thinking in the UK? I think we do, and I think that requires some explanation.
I'm a little wary to offer binary choices on this channel, because I know that people then get very excited about one or the other. But in this case, I'm going to suggest there are three ways of thinking which are important?
One is bottom-up thinking.
One is top-down thinking.
And one is the bit in the middle where we find real progress.
The trouble we have in this country at this moment is that we are dominated by top-down thinking.
Top-down thinking is thinking that is based upon the prior assumptions that a person has made before they ever reach the point that they have to make a decision.
So, for example, if we use Rachel Reeves as a perfect case of a top-down thinker, she believes the government cannot create more money, and therefore, she says she has to live within her means.
She believes that there are things called fiscal rules and that she has to comply with them, even though she makes the rules up and nobody expects her to comply with them.
She believes that all wealth is created in the private sector and nothing is created by the public sector.
And everybody else knows that education, healthcare, and all sorts of other things do add value, but she does not.
In other words, she has a preconceived set of notions before she ever comes to make a decision about the economy, which are absolutely, fundamentally wrong.
Let me give you another demonstration of top-down thinking and how it can be so dangerous, or at least just wrong, and I found this one on the web, but I think it's quite good.
Suppose you go to a station to meet someone. Your phone is flat, so you can't call them. You're standing on the foyer of the station hoping to see this person, and we're talking about a big station here, and what you think is that your friend will be wearing a red coat because the last few times that you've seen them, that is what they were wearing.
So what do you do? You look for people in red coats.
You never find your friend. You miss them. You go home without them.
Why? Because they were wearing a blue coat. It's as simple and straightforward as that. You made a straightforward category error by assuming that your friend would be wearing a red coat, and that's just as big a mistake as Rachel Reeve's when assuming that the government cannot create its own money when very clearly it can because it has its own bank.
And this is the problem of top-down thinking that thinking takes place inside a narrow silo where the assumptions are all made in advance.
Now, let's compare that with bottom-up thinking. Suppose you're looking at buying a property. You get the estate agent's details. There's a floor plan and it lays out what each of the rooms is currently used for.
It says kitchen, bedroom, bathroom, sitting room, and whatever else they wish to call the rooms in question. And you could, if you were a top-down thinker, go into the house and think in the way that the estate agent has instructed. In other words, when you go into a bedroom, you think, this is a bedroom.
Alternatively, you could go in and think you could change the assumption. You could go in with an open mind. The fact that there's a bed in there at present, and a bedside table, and a wardrobe or whatever else, doesn't mean that you couldn't use it for something else. You could.
The fact that there's even a kitchen in a certain room in the house doesn't mean to say that if you wanted to, you couldn't rip it out and transfer it into what was called a dining room by the estate agent. If you wanted to, you could do that. If you're a bottom-up thinker, you'd look at the house as a blank canvas. You'd consider the possibilities that each room presented to you, on the assumption that it wasn't in its current use, but it was empty as, of course, it will be on the day you move in. And you would consider the option of changing everything if you so wished. In other words, you're looking at the possibilities.
But, and I add an important ‘but' here because bottom-up thinking is constrained. You look at the possibilities, but very clearly if you're looking at the details of a house which costs £500,000 and your budget is only £350,000 it doesn't matter what you think about those rooms; you won't be able to change them.
If you're looking at a house with a budget of £350,000 and a price of £350,000, but your imagination requires that you spend another £100,000 to change it to suit your purposes, again, you're not going to get what you want.
So, there are constraints on bottom-up thinking; you've got to live within the real world.
But at least you're considering the possibilities, because once you've realised that you do need certain things and this house isn't providing it, you can at least then move on and work within your budget to find the things you do want. In other words, bottom-up thinking liberates you to work out what is necessary to achieve your goals.
In contrast, top-down thinking says you can't do a whole pile of things, whether it's looking for a person in a blue coat, or spending money you haven't got, even though the Bank of England would let you do that. And, therefore, you don't believe those things are possible.
Bottom-up thinking is, therefore, liberating, even if there are constraints.
Top-down thinking is always a constraint.
And that's why we need bottom-up thinking in the UK at present. We've had top-down thinking of a neoliberal sort for over 40 years now. We've been told that markets work, that government does not work, that governments should not run deficits, that the government must back off from any form of activity because consumers want choice. That tax is bad, that taxing the wealthy is particularly bad, and everything else. None of those things are true; they are all assumptions. But they have been given the status of, well literally, givens; things that are fixed, that cannot be changed. And that's all wrong.
If we started with bottom-up thinking, we would approach government in a very different way.
We'd look at this country and say, what do we want to achieve?
Well, the first thing we want to achieve is a country where people do not live in poverty. We wouldn't want children to suffer that consequence.
We would want people to have decent education and health care.
We would want a functioning justice system.
We would want social care that worked on behalf of people.
We wouldn't want food that poisoned us any more than we once wanted cigarettes that killed us.
We would not want those things.
What we would want is a system that worked. And we would work within the blank canvas of the resources that we have, the 67 million people who live here, and the capacity that they've got to generate wealth between them, and work out how we could do that to best effect.
That's how we break the political logjam that we've got.
We have got a political logjam. It's entirely the consequence of top-down thinking, which is preventing us thinking that any alternative is possible.
It's why young people are rejecting politics, quite reasonably so.
It's why people are alienated by the political process, quite reasonably so.
It's why people think that Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves are completely out of touch, quite reasonably so, because what they say makes no sense to the ordinary person, who can clearly see that the assumptions that they've made are utterly illogical and totally removed from the reality of lives as they know it.
In that case, we have to start again. We have to do some bottom-up thinking. But when doing so we do very clearly have to compromise as to what is possible.
It isn't possible to spend without limit, and anybody who tells you it is, is wrong because we get inflation.
We cannot both build Heathrow and new social housing because there are a limited number of people who have the skills to do both, and by and large, they're transferable. So we have to choose between do we want hospital schools, social housing and other things that are useful to people, or a new runway that frankly is only useful for a few people?. We will have to make those difficult choices.
Bottom-up thinking does not stop that. But what it does do is empower us to imagine what is possible. And at the moment, all we get from politicians is a story about what is not possible.
I believe in possibility.
I believe we can do better than we are doing now.
I believe that top-down thinking is stopping us doing that.
I think we have to start with a blank canvas, and then work out what is possible, and then deliver it, and that's what politics now demands.
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Really enjoyed the video on bottom up thinking and the need to be open minded to the possibilities. Then I think just how ingrained the assumptions to preserve the status quo are. With BBC, MSM, the education system all preserving the Neo-liberal assumptions, then how do you change this. I thought also that Keynes , Roosevelt etc must have also faced these challenges. Then I remembered my management training, “people don’t change unless there is a burning platform which forces people to change . The Great Depression clearly was such a spur to change and rethink. Back to today, is it a case that things are not bad enough yet to force the change…… but we must be getting close?
I think we are
As I looked at this story this morning, I thought it was an excellent example of what you are saying here.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/feb/05/uk-childhood-mental-health-crisis-to-cost-1tn-in-lost-pay-study-finds
The top-down thinking of our Chancellor, PM & Wealth -sorry HEALTH secretary have literally nothing to offer us on this problem. Because “government has no money of its own”… said the PPE syllabus.
Interestingly there are literally hundreds of “NHS” mental health trusts now run by private companies, have been for years. Eg:
https://www.nhs.uk/services/independent-sector-provider/virgin-care-ltd/NQT/hospitals-and-clinics
Doesn’t seem to have worked. CAMHS has been in meltown for over a decade.
Much to agree with
Do the following throw light on the above?
As the recently approved Ambassador to the US, does Peter Mandelson aim to sell parts of the NHS … so that everyone can get themselves private medical insurance?
Perhaps he encouraged Gareth Davies, the Comptroller and Auditor General (C&AG) to assert that the “healthcare and special educational needs systems are becoming unsustainable” – a statement announced in yesterday’s Guardian. [“UK chief auditor ‘open to learning’ from Musk”] Mr Davies was appointed in June 2019 (by a Conservative administration).
I imagine that Mandelson still thinks ‘Labour has nowhere to go’. Does he continue with his daily intention to thwart Party Members – such as those who seek to reduce inequality?
As well as being married to Morgan McSweeney, Imogen Walker, the MP for Hamilton, is the parliamentary private secretary (PPS) to the Chancellor – her ‘eyes and ears’ in the Commons. Are we to suppose that she has, or has not, told Rachel Reeves that a lot of us – including MPs – think that building and expanding airports will accelerate the climate breakdown that is already happening? Is it reassuring that she has a a master’s degree in mental philosophy?
Insightful post, but why frame the contrast as ‘top-down’ v. ‘bottom-up’? I think it can be formulated more simply, and accurately, as thinking dominated by idees fixes versus thinking that avoids them.
The UK’s standard excuse for doing nothing is ” we can’t afford it and taxes must go up”.
15+ years of austerity, telling the UK workforce ( apart from financial services) that you are “useless” and those not working that you are worthless.
What do you get? The fertile ground for the extreme right to grow.
The UK can stop this now. But it needs the current government to invest in the function of the UK state immediately.
So far there is no hint that Labour have any idea of what is needed.
Bottom up or top down? I just wish they would THINK at all.
In the case of Reeves – you used the word “belief” and “believes” – which is probably correct. She has a quasi-religious approach to economics & no amount of empirical data, argument, reality will change her views. Couple that to a bunch of right-wing LINO imbeciles behind Starmer (McSweeney et al) who know zero about economics. Thus whilst everything you say is correct, nothing will change, absent the current crew being turfed out. For this to happen would require circa 50 to 60 LINO MPs to discover some backbone and walk. If this happens in the next year or so, the Uk has a chance. If it does not – then prepare for fascism in 2030 via Deform and Stephen Yaxley Lennon, the UKs very own adolf hitler.
You mention the biggest threats to my comfortable older age
I am resigned to not having a comfortable old age – at very best it will be a case, through extreme collective effort of just about stopping the ship sinking. The trajectory over the last 10 years has been downwards @ a rate of knots and the emergence of people in power I would class as barely human.
I think I agree with you.
My view remains the same.
The government has been captured by vested interests basically and their funders and support networks are using the power of the state to remodel society in order that it is more exploitable for them, so that more of its output accrues to them.
Statements like ‘tax payers money’ or ‘there is no money’ are just lies to cover up the truth. The agenda is to privatise everything and turn it into an income stream for capital to achieve nirvana or a perfect ‘market’ society’.
Many of our elected officials are nought but political avatars – each one merely a glove puppet for greed.
So rather than incompetence or blind faith, I see this as all deliberate because at its base is corruption.
The top-down political thinking of the Starmer regime is how to keep the rich rich and in control. They’ll do and say anything to stop voters understanding this! Despite the mindless increase in support for Reform growing and support for Labour declining the political thinking is still working its evil!