The monthly ritual of the publication of GDP data took place this morning.
The Office for National Statistics summarised the situation as follows:
- Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have shown no growth in July 2024, after also showing no growth in June 2024.
- Real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.5% in the three months to July 2024 compared with the three months to April 2024, with widespread growths in the services sector in this period.
- Services output grew by 0.1% in July 2024, following a decrease of 0.1% in June 2024, and grew by 0.6% in the three months to July 2024.
- Production output decreased by 0.8% in July 2024, following a growth of 0.8% in June 2024, and decreased by 0.1% in the three months to July 2024.
- Construction output decreased by 0.4% in July 2024, following a growth of 0.5% in June 2024, but grew by 1.2% in the three months to July 2024, its first positive three-month growth since September 2023.
To put it another way, nothing changed in July.
The country did not throw a massive party to celebrate Labour winning and so boost GDP, which is a good job since that would have been a decidedly mistaken thing to do.
Nor did it have an economic upturn because of increasing confidence because there wasn't apparently any change in our outlook.
There was, instead, no change.
And that, seems to quite appropriately summarise what did happen in July. We got a new government, and nothing changed.
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The ‘caretaker era’ is what we are in I think.
More like a Sexton https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sexton_(office)
Industry only spend or increase production if they can forsee an increase in sales as a result. But this government is saying that the consumers will in fact have less to spend as utility and other bills (just for living) are going to rise. Nor is the government going to increase spending. Any increase seems only likely if consumers increase borrowing, and many are maxed out already.
So growth hardly seems likely. In fact, to me, an increase in poverty seems more likely. Increased demand on the social services and NHS seems certain.
This isn’t what labour should be doing. Their economic knowledge seems rubbish to me.
Will the left in the labour party stay quiet? I hope not. It all there is now if we are to have a changed future.
Don’t worry Richard, this is the Brexit dividend; a great success. Celebrate! And Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves has the answer to boost growth; cut the WFA and cut spend across the board. What could possibly go wrong by copying the the fiscal rules of the last Conservative Government?
Why are politicians that supported Brexit not trying to “make it work” as they envisioned when they campaigned for it?
Why are the people who voted for BREXIT not holding politicians “feet to the fire” for all that was promised if BREXIT passed and became a reality?
Starmer doesn’t believe in Brexit, doesn’t believe that matters, and doesn’t understand economics. What could possibly go wrong so quickly?
Sky News (and other sources) are reporting that Rachel Reeves has now said the Budget will contain not just spending cuts and tax rises; but increased borrowing. Well, well, it was obvious this had to happen. But it is more suffering, more pain, more austerity, no basis for growth (no solution to Brexit); and even then, still more ‘borrowing’ that they insist they can’t do, and insisted they couldn’t do, fourteen years ago – when there was £1.5Trn+ less of it! Utterly ridiculous. This is just Tory2, Déjà vu all over again; and again; and again. But they can’t increase borrowing to do anything constructive, or even to ensure the elderly are guaranteed to be able to heat their homes.
I wonder if this story is tied to the FT piece, 4th September, and earlier news from a trip to the US and Toronto where it was spun, that Reeves may look “adjust its debt-to-GDP ratio to exclude losses from the Bank of England’s bond-buying programme” (‘Business Matters’, 6th August). The possibility effectively manipulates the fiscal rules to unlock up to £17Bn borrowing. I think there were losses in the bond programme, but right now, i can’t find the required sources to confirm this is what we are talking about. On the face of it, this is all truly astonishing. We are already playing games; but I can’t yet be sure of what is going on; perhaps Richard you, or the readership may have some further insightful news on this?.
There are losses
It seems that they are planningto ignore what is called the Bank of England contrbution to the national debt. That makes it much easier to borrow more.
Well, that isn’t the only rule they could change, or ignore.
We could say “Whoever you vote for you will end up with a Conservative government – some more harsh than others!!