I was on the Matthew Wright show on LBC Radio this morning. I seem to be becoming a bit of a regular on this gig at the moment.
The subject was a report by an estate agent claiming one-sixth of UK millionaires (around half a million people, apparently) will leave the country by 2028 and that foreign millionaires no longer want to come to London, preferring instead, in order:
- Paris
- Berlin
- Barcelona
- Vienna
- Madrid
Matthew wanted to know whether I had any thoughts on this issue.
My first warning was to not accept at face value the word of an estate agent trying to encourage people to move. They are not exactly objective on this issue.
Then I suggested why nothing like the numbers that are suggested might leave will do so:
- They have parents here
- And children in school here
- And all their friends here
- Their golf club is here
- They of their family can only speak English
- They can't afford a house in a tax haven
- Taxes elsewhere may well be higher than here
- Brexit might deny them a visa
- They can't afford healthcare elsewhere - and won't get if for free in Europe now
And on, and on, and on. So, tiny numbers are ever likely to go.
But, that said, I agreed there may not be as many keen to come here now. There is a long list of reasons:
- Our water is polluted
- So are our beaches
- Our health service is collapsing because of underfunding
- So, too, is our school system, for the same reason
- And our legal system for the same reason
- And our transport system is also looking ropey
- As is our electricity transmission system
- Then there are all the problems created by Brexit
- And race riots really do not suggest a warm welcome for anyone coming here.
Tax has nothing to do with any of this. So, let's stop the stupid claims that it does. Anyone who has researched this knows that even large companies put it way down their list of priorities. For individuals, it is lower still.
My suggestion in that case is don't put much faith in an estate agent's hype.
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One company gave its staff the option to relocate to Switzerland from London.
Never been myself but the Paddle Steamers look stunning.
Nobody took it, even the ‘non UK’ staff
The report makes me think though having finished reading Kit Sadgrove’s book The Concierge Class and about comments people have made about estate agents and, by implication, Lawyers, Accountants and some Journalists that they identify too much with their clients and say what those clients want to hear even though they are far richer than they are and what they perceive they want isnt necessarily in the interests of those who advocate for or provide it.
For some wealthy people, tax has an unusually (and frankly unnecessarily) high influence on their behaviour, and they will or won’t do something (when they might otherwise do the opposite) based on the tax implications.
But for many perhaps most wealthy people tax is just a result of a situation or a decision. Sure, if there is a straight choice between two equivalent things and one results in lower tax (and higher post-tax proceeds) then most people would choose the lower-tax route. But many wealthy people just want to be compliant – they don’t want the time or hassle of tax investigations or disputes, or potential reputational implications – and if that means paying a bit more tax then so be it. When you have more than enough resources for your needs, money is just a number.
Precisely
I liked Graham Norton’s explanation of this – he was contemptuous of those who tried to avoid tax
I’d have seriously considered a move to Switzerland, but only because I ski and would love to be nearer the mountains.
As regards most of the reasons cited by Richard for millionaires not wanting to come to the UK many not valid as they won’t use state education and health. If anything they would be attracted by the quality of Uk’s (under taxed) private systems.
Sorry – but everyone uses the NHS – there is no private A&E or intensive care
And everyone hires state educated people
I do not agree with you.
As Richard says, there is no private A&E or intensive care. Furthermore, the vast majority of doctors, and quite a few of the nurses, found working in the private health pockets have their core job in the NHS. Private healthcare in the UK is not a system, it’s a patchwork of partial services, many of which get their customers from the NHS.
@ Mike Tranter.
“…Private healthcare in the UK is not a system, it’s a patchwork of partial services, many of which get their customers from the NHS.”
Just so. And send them back to the NHS when their cases are too difficult.
Maybe too simplistic a view on the tax crisis Labour are intent on burdening us with, but all the focus seems to be how they can extract more money from anyone with property, savings, private education, or are over retirement age. That pretty much covers everybody!
Why is there no consideration being given to raising tax revenue by adding a wealth tax levy on commercial properties, offices, shops,warehouses etc etc. Adding 0.5% over a reasonable threshold, annually must create many billions given the unit value of
each site is typically worth far more than any residential property. Yes there are less commercial properties than residential, but the unit value will be far greater surely?
It seems all the focus is on punishing property owners, parents and pensioners many of whom are asset rich but cash poor. Targeting commercial sector instead would raise more and improve Starmer’s image which is a PR disaster at the moment.
How wrong can you be Geoff?
You say “ Maybe too simplistic a view on the tax crisis Labour are intent on burdening us with, but all the focus seems to be how they can extract more money from anyone with property, savings, private education, or are over retirement age.”
The last thing Labour is trying to do is tax property or savings appropriately
As for your suggestion – that’s called an increase in business rates
Is that THE Geoff Baxter the jockey?
You’d think he’d know better.
A brilliant riposte.
I’ve always been impressed by your ability to take right wing tropes and effectively turn them in to weapons to slay the baseless drivel spouted by the mouthpieces of monied interests.
You have most capably explained why most of us want to leave never mind the rich.
I find this now a common view among people in the street when in conversation with them. They might disagree on the cause (and the Sun/Daily Mail/ Express readers are beyond help – The Times and Telegraph readers don’t walk on streets – you see them driving by with the windows wound up) but the basic premise is that we are in a complete mess as a country and nothing works.
In reply to PSR,
I believe you are being too negative/pessimistic about the feelings of the majority of the people in the UK. O f course we all know where things are/ have gone wrong-Grenfell et al, but for us all to give up hope that things can be changed by emigrating!!, is surely not the approach to take. Instead, we should be campaigning for some/many things to improve and also acknowledge that there are many aspects of our lives that we should be thankful for.
I myself am going to have a minor operation next week. OK I have waited 12 months for it, but I am even more pleased that a neighbour of mine has been rushed into Intensive Care without any delay, and that neither of us have had to pay.
Well good for you Ann – I’m pleased that you are pleased (especially on a medical issue) but I can only recount that my interactions with people show a pre-occupation with the idea – if not the evidence – that the country has gone down hill rather steeply.
My partner had a operation last November after a long wait but her discharge from hospital was indecently fast and we found her in the recovery room ward having had no one to check her over before departure.
So Ann, I will finish by saying be careful and ‘good luck’.
I did post this link:
https://x.com/TerraOrBust/status/1792984037063082283
About a Twitter thread, with sources, for discussion.
It claims to prove benefits of leaving the EU.
Dan Needle also has a thread on the willingness to pay more tax:
https://x.com/DanNeidle/status/1832340492614304214
Both very interesting threads.
The first seemed spurious
Blog post on counter points?
A waste of time
That is a shame.
I know you, Dan Neidle, Frances Coppola and other commentators, who, in my opinion have reasoned views differ on things, but I would say constructive joint discussions and debates are needed.
The post from Dan Needle is interesting, as I personally still believe, through listening to people on my travels across the UK, that people on £10k more than them, should pay more tax.
Also, people may not have issues with paying more tax if it went towards the “right” things (not war mongering, corporate welfare etc)
As for the first link, as posted, it does cite sources, but someone with more expertise than me needs to check.
Dan Neidle made a fortune selling tax abuse to the wealthy
I have never understood why anyone gives Frances Coppola any time at all and for very good reason I have reservation about engaging with either
Did the Estate Agent explain why he thought millionaires wanted to go to Paris, Berlin, Barcelona, Vienna and Madrid when they all have higher top band tax rates than the U.K ?
It appears not
I have been to Paris and Berlin and they knock spots off London and I lived in London for 6 years and I am also very fond of it.
But Paris and Berlin seem to have their shit together as they say.
And I’ve also been to Vienna, where I would actually choose to live over Paris or Berlin. It is one of the most relaxed cities I’ve ever been to and spent time in. There’s something special about it that I just cannot not put my finger on? German style organisation with a little more give, a little more warmth. And it makes all the difference. ‘Wonderful pace in my experience.
In the late 1950s/early 1960s the Americans used to joke that they came to London only for a well cut suit, or to provide their daughters with a school that gave them cut-glass accents. Well that is just about all it has left now; but times have changed, the World is somewhere else sharp and fast; nobody cares, and Britain just looks exactly like what it has become; a down-at-heel, louche, backward social embarrassment.
I would imagine the Estate Agent didn’t explain the tax rate discrepancy because, either his argument simply isn’t true, or if they are leaving it is for other reasons; perhaps because Britain is sick, The City has lost its edge, and is in decline (for illustration London Stock Exchange now ninth in size in the world, behind India, Shenzen, Hong Kong etc), Brexit (the city list are all in the EU); or the feeble performance of the British economy, and no growth over a long period (whether interest rates or high, or lower bound, near 0%). In short Britain is quite obviously a desperate, weak, busted flush. At least, that is a convincing narrative, and I am not even trying very hard to find the flaws.
My explanation was simpler when on air: London was cool
It isn’t any more
All depends what tax system the U.K. has under Labour. I live in London and my daughter goes to a private school in North London.Probably half the pupils are non British coming from mainly Europe, India or the middle east. I am not sure the criteria you laid out applies to their families and unquestionably they are more fluid than those born and bred in the U.K. We shall see but i don’t think “all binding” statements in either direction are useful.
Thank you and well said, Richard.
Having been to school and later worked with and for such types, I echo what Richard says.
Have rich Europeans really ever permanently move to England (London) as their base home?
Russians, Indians, Arabs, Egyptians, Chinese and those from the Commonwealth I can understand but I cannot think of one rich European person example.
Buying a country estate or holiday house not count.
Please chime in with any examples.
London is the fourth largest French city in electoral terms
Thanks for the factoid!
I was trying to think of someone rich, European and well known!
“London is the fourth largest French city in electoral terms”
And the wine is better.
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