The far-right has won the French general election, so far.
The result? The euro has gone up in value and the French stock exchange has increased in value by 2.5 per cent, according to the Guardian. What does this say? I suggest three things.
First, business loves the far-right. They know it exists to benefit them.
Second, the far-right loves big business. Even more than neoliberalism, it exists to serve their interests.
Third, ordinary people are conned by the far-right rhetoric of hate that is created to win support by dividing society. Too late, the vulnerable realise that the far-right is no more interested in their well-being than the right-of-centre parties are. The con-trick is complete by then.
Might that realisation permeate in France before next weekend? I doubt it. We still have reason to worry, unless your interests are aligned with big business in France, of course.
Thanks for reading this post.
You can share this post on social media of your choice by clicking these icons:
There are links to this blog's glossary in the above post that explain technical terms used in it. Follow them for more explanations.
You can subscribe to this blog's daily email here.
And if you would like to support this blog you can, here:
Buy me a coffee!
The French public have had enough of being patronised and ignored by the French left wing and this is the result. And you decide to double down!! The left clearly suffer from a complete lack of awareness.!!…
Since when were the left in power in France?
Total drivel from you
@ Keith Hewson
I’m sure you are aware of the Pinochet regime’s relationships with the Chicago Boys, and their massive corporate programme of privatisation and deregulation. Over 30,000 people were ‘disappeared’ during their involvement.
Perhaps you even understand that the present mess in Russia originated with the USA instigated and mismanaged ‘shock therapy’ regime from 1992 which caused a 50% fall in GDP and worsened inflation.
Neither of these are down to the ‘left’ at all, but represent extreme forms of corporate neoliberalism.
I would only agree that factionalism within the French Left has ill served the unity of French Socialism for a few decades now.
The only hop e is if the left alliance and the centrists cooperate, constituency by constituency to agree which candidate will stand to stand down to have the best chance to prevent RN from winning seats. Melechon has already agreed to this action.
Otherwise the situation is scary, lets hope next Sunday will bring some hope.
Yes, I agree.
The problem is, as you have said, that both the established (i.e. mainly neoliberal) parties and the main stream media, are ignoring and belittling genuine concerns.
For example, on immigration, it seems reasonable, to me, to be concerned about the high rate of immigration (not refugees who are a small minority). With record rates of immigration and far to little spent on public services there is a genuine issue. However, there is very binary response. Either one is supposed to be in favour of completely unconstrained immigration, of one is a racist bigot or a deluded fool. This is treating the electorate, the “little people”, with contempt. They are not stupid. Until there can be reasonable discussion of controversial issues, and pragmatic compromise solutions, people will increasingly vote for extreme parties. This is bad. But it is,in significant part, due to politicians and media refusing to address issues.
You ignore that migrants very often work to deliver public services
I certainly don’t ignore that migrants often provide public services.
Furthermore I have particular, personal, reasons to favour some immigration.
Nevertheless, it is reasonable to be able to discuss the rate of immigration, which is at record highs. It is in part because people are told they cannot discuss immigration that there is, IMO, a great deal of frustration in the electorate. And, IMO, that frustration leads to support for extremists. I don’t want that to continue in our country.
But let’s look at those immigrants providing public services. In the NHS, as you know, a large proportion of doctors and nurses were not born in the UK. And, by and large, they do an excellent job, many thanks to them. But should we really be taking doctors from less well off countries because we do not train our own? I think that is immoral. Not to mention the unemployed doctors in the UK that you have highlighted recently.
And consider care workers, many of whom are immigrants. Why are they employed rather than British workers? Do not say it’s because no British will do the job. If they were paid £100/hour (a fraction of many professionals) we would get many job applicants. No, it’s because care homes do not pay enough. And they don’t pay enough because the government starves them of funds. And the government starves them of funds because it will not tax the well off. We could pay decent wages. We do not Need immigrants for care homes. We Choose not to pay adequately.
Fundamentally much immigration is because too many well off in this country don’t Want to pay properly for services and trades. They would rather use their money for a more comfortable life or more luxuries. So they want cheep immigrant labour.
The exploitation of immigrants, for the benefits of the well off, makes me angry.
So yes, many immigrants do a useful job but we do not Need many of them. They are purely to benefit the wealthy and support inequality.
Tim
There are monents when I wonder why I let you comment on this blog, and this is one of them
Do you know anything about how desperately short we are of people in parts of the UK because of low birth rates?
I am hoping you do not, because otherwise your tone is hard to accept.
You may get deleted more often at this rate
Richard
Hi Richard,
I’m sorry you don’t like my tone. 🙁
I guess it seems I’m opposed to immigration and am borderline racist (or perhaps not even borderline). I don’t think so.
I’m not even really arguing about immigration and, as I said, I certainly think some immigration is needed. Immigration is just an example.
What I was mainly trying to say was that there was a civilised debate to be had about the rate of immigration (and about other controversial issues). Immigration, IMO, is not binary, it not open borders or closed borders. There is a lot of variation in between.
At the moment, I think that many people do feel excluded from the debate, that this is causing frustration and, in turn, leading to a move to more extreme political parties. I don’t want that to happen.
So I think a more inclusive debate in the media would be helpful. And I think it would be useful if politicians could make substantive replies about their position, rather than branding large swathes of the electorate as, for example, “deplorables”.
I really hope you don’t think that is an extreme uncivilised position.
But you put it in a different way this time….
Language really matters on sensitive issues
“Language really matters on sensitive issues”
@Richard – Which is why someone highly qualified who understands the sensitivity of the issue and the complexity of the issue needs to lead an intelligent civilized discussion on ways to “manage” immigration.
A good place to start would be: What is immigration defined as?
I do not view student visas as immigration but I am sure other people do.
Agreed
When Tim clarified his issue I agreed with him
I felt uncomfortable with the first version
I’m glad I managed to clarify, and we have some agreement. 🙂
You’re absolutely right, language does matter, and I failed to get my message across as clearly as I’d have liked. I guess we have different ways of thinking, but often come to similar conclusions (which is why I like your blog 🙂 )
@BayTampaBay : I agree.
Mr Kent, I have commented here umpteen times on the fact that Scotland has been facing an existential demographic crisis for decades. EU immigration was slowly stabilising it, and then – Brexit. This is a disaster in Scotland not just demographically, but it is undermining the fish processing industry, soft fruits and agriculture (seasonal crop picking relying on EU labour sources); the NHS, the care sector, and hospitality. Scotland is now thrown back on a disappearing labour force. Our current birthrate is 1.3 births per woman. The replacement rate is 2.1. Scotland is on an extinction curve. It is literally killing our country.
Yes, there is suppression of immigration as an issue. That is mostly down to the far right.
There is also a view that if the fertility index falls below 2.1, there is a problem.
That there is a 16-20 yr gap between an increase in births and their impact on the working age population. is often ignored.
The key metric is dependency ratio. Both falls in death rates and rises in birth rates cause the dependency ratio to rise, and therefore increases in social costs.
Permanent immigration is not neutral and can also tend to increase dependency ratios unless single males or post menopausal women are prioritised.
There are no simple answers to demographic issues that don’t have wider repercussions.
Japan has not had fertility at 2.1+ since 1974/5, and low immigration with high life expectancies. How have they managed ? They have factors to resolve, but are no basket case.
We know they are due an absolute fall in population over the next 50yrs by 30% plus. All post industrial societies are in Stage 4 of the Demographic Transition, a model that is robust.
I am optimistic that bulges in the population pyramid can be managed, but much less so that the myths in population dynamics can be dispelled, and especially fear of immigration at any level.
Here’s a Mexican fascist trying to help French fascists gain power:-
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/30/soaring-government-debt-could-roil-global-financial-markets-warns-bis-director
Thank you.
Plus this lot: https://unherd.com/newsroom/why-is-the-bank-of-england-interfering-in-french-politics/.
Noted
Quite. An interesting article – funny one hears nothing in the so-called “mainstream media”. On a related note, The EU/EC has gone easy on France with respect to gov deficit/GDP – supposed to be 3% – and is bumping around 5% & forecast to stay that way.
I have heard rumours that the gloves will come off if Le Pen gets in. Of course it is all neo-lib nonsense. My guess is that Bx etc will wait & see – given there will soon be a new Commission. I read the vote in favour of Le Pan as much as an anti-Paris vote as a pro-Le Pen.
One of the ironies of fascism is that however narrowly nationalist the fascists present themselves as they are always willing to cooperate with fascists of other nationalities.
Thank you and well said, Richard.
Soon after the National Assembly was dissolved, representatives of big business met the RN, saying their economic policy was a blank canvas.
In addition, the French and German finance ministers, Bank of England (sic), BBC and state owned France 2 (tv station) have been warning of a Liz Truss style melt down. France 2 displayed her photo as background when explaining what could happen.
That has spooked the RN.
Although the RN emerged from the poujadist movement, so small town and small business background, there were always big business movers in the background.
The oligarch family which owns C News is more than happy to air alarmist and racist stories daily. C News is like Fox and GB News, but the other broadcasters and even parliamentarians are little better. Not even the Tories and US Republicans make racist comments like some French MPs.
Declaration: French is my first language. I have ancestors from there, studied and worked there, and visit regularly.
Thanks
No quibble with the underlying idea that Wealth and Big Business are enabling fascism around the world.
However, in France the story is that the result is not as positive for RN as feared and that the huge number of 3 way run offs with 3rd placed non-RN candidates dropping out will not allow a RN majority government.
RN frightens markets fearing it’s anti EU, high deficit policies….. hence the recovery today following the fall that came straight after the election announcement.
Agreed ….
Thank you, both.
It was noticeable that the left wing alliance has agreed to step down where it’s third and prevent an RN victory, but Macron’s centrist alliance has yet to do so.
For Macron’s alliance, it’s existential as the people broke away from the left and right and allied with Macron. The Macron movement is literally and metaphorically rootless and unlikely to survive Macron’s departure.
I don’t think people outside France realise how unpopular Macron always has been, especially from his time as finance minister, and how he fluked into the presidential run off in 2017.
When Macron flounced out of the French government in 2016, having ensured Alsthom was sold to the US GE, he came to raise money in London*, met Osborne (with whom he remains friends) and lobbied on behalf of ATOS Origin. *Repeating what Sarkozy, friends with Macron, did in 2007. I attended one such rally with a French friend / former colleague. The French business community in London is Thatcherite.
But you ignore the fact that Macron called this election wanting the right to win and make a mess of things – which is his only route back in the next Presidential election
Richard and readers may be interested in: https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/07/the-eu-doom-loop-embracing-more-austerity-will-cause-further-rightward-shift.html.
Thanks
Thanks for the link to the article. Most interesting. One of the below the line comments was unsurprising:
“this election shows a deep rural versus urban split. ………..RN leading in 258 rural seats. If it keeps those leads it will get a majority because rural France , including small towns, is fed up of the policies of the urban elite. Its an anti-Paris movement on steroids,”
If you drive through rural France, what becomes clear is the lack of jobs. e.g. Argenton sur Creuse – pretty place – nice river (which you can swim in!) used to be a town that made gloves – not any more. Just north, the town of Chateauroux – back in 2020 saw the major employer (clothes) close. Or let’s take the Aveyron valley. As I write now, there are Mirabelle trees on the sides of country roads groaning with fruit – that nobody picks – btw Mirabelle jam is the crack-cocaine of jams (in the autumn vast quantities of damsons). Point: could be a thriving jaming business – organic – sell to the Parisiennes. Argenton? grow flax make linen. But for this to happen, Paris would need to fund/help & from what I have seen – there is zero interest. Not even much interest in renewables – South of France – roof tops? – mostly devoid of solar panels. etc etc. RN will make zero difference – t0o stupid.
Exactly – my whole point
Thank you, Mike.
My observations aren’t dissimilar.
I’m off to Deauville, horse racing, in late August and the Luberon a fortnight later. It will be interesting to observe.
Re Rural – Urban split. Isn’t Rural the archetypal “left behind”? Poorer wages, fewer job opportunities, poorer and less available affordable housing, poorer infrastructure, poorer public transport, longer journeys to health centres, …ah, but what quality of life (apart from noisy cockerels, smelly cow manure and massive tractors and combines clogging narrow rural roads). An excellent case for levelling up. (And I know there are many urban areas similarly disadvantaged, having grown up on the outskirts of Glasgow in the 50’s and 60’s)
Every centralised State, and the UK is a world-beating example, gives the “left behind” areas just enough and no more than enough to ensure the grumbling doesn’t become revolutionary. Sometimes it doesn’t work, but has so far in the UK.
But unless devolved nations (and regions within them), English regions and cities have a greater say in how much money they get and that it’s based on need and/or can raise money then patience with the centre ma run out.
I don’t detect that any of the contenders have the slightest understanding of this, along with the constitution, Brexit and global warming. Not serious issues requiring serious amounts of money.
Neo-Fascism is not new in Europe and the 5 Eyes.
it has been getting worse since the turn of the century and the endless wars, many unknown here, because ‘hey it isn’t in our mainstream news, and we of course have the freest, unbiased, news in the world!’ So it doesn’t exist for many. Unless they seek out geopolitical news.
Fascism accelerated with Blair’s second term and led via the GFC to Austerity and the Brexit fiasco by way of pumping up ‘populism’ politics.
The coordination means that most of Europe will now have neo-fascist lock stepping politics regardless of left or right mask, is therefore not an accident in my opinion.
As we will see this week when our Great Knight Dope is installed with a great majority yet lower the number of votes that JC got!
I call it a bridging of the Left/Right by clever sophisticated agit prop for the common goal of fascism.
I don’t believe much is achieved by laying the blame at the masses of voters who are manipulated by the mass media narratives and many a gatekeeper and sheepdogs of all persuasions. Simple button pushing.
I fear a wider world war by way of an attempt to annihilate the remaining natives of the Levant with FULL European backing, more than I do the storm in the European teacup of Punch and Judy politics.
Thank you, Richard.
Further to: “But you ignore the fact that Macron called this election wanting the right to win and make a mess of things – which is his only route back in the next Presidential election.”
I think you mean Macron’s alliance. Macron can’t stand again in 2027, unless the constitution is amended or he does not complete a second term and is, therefore, entitled to run again.
Accepted
I realised that very soon after posting
I should have corrected it
Thank you, Richard.
“Third, ordinary people are conned by the far-right rhetoric of hate that is created to win support by dividing society.”
Is this not how BREXIT won in the referendum?
Is it time for the sequel to ‘Taxing Wealth’ titled ‘Toxic Wealth’ perhaps? We need to limit the amount political parties can spend throughout a term, not just at elections, and limit huge single donations entirely. Is there any doubt that billionaire donors switching from Tory to Labour intend to buy influence? Is there any question that Labour have been ‘changed’ by this?
Even Starmer’s glasses have been gifted to him…
Are they rose tinted?
🙂
£2.800 worrth, apparently, gifted to him
Multiple pairs
I have comlicated anti-glare lenses and get by on about £300 or so