There is much to reflect on in the local election results so far, and although the mayoralties might still swing some opinions, if not much about the reality about how truly dismal a night this was for the Tories. All that really surprised me about their result is that there are still people with any vague relationship to ethical principles who remain willing to vote for them. I really do wonder what planet they live on.
But they are not the only deluded people in politics. For all its claims that the election is not a foregone conclusion, the Labour leadership has, according to people I have been talking to, formed the opinion that they walk on water based on recent opinion polls. For the record, they don't. And these results suggest that they really do not, precisely because most suggest that there is nothing like the level of support for Labour in English communities that general election opinion polls, rigged as they are by our first-past-the-post electoral system, imply.
In reality, the swing towards Labour was nothing as big as those parliamentary polls suggest. Given better choices, many people have chosen LibDems, Greens and other candidates instead of Labour, suggesting Labour's support is soft and heavily based on antipathy for the Tories.
I really cannot see a Tory recovery from this point for some time to come. It will take a decade or more for the memory of Truss, Johnson, Sunak, May and Cameron - every one of them a dud - to fade. But that said, Labour is utterly delusional if it thinks this has won them real affection. It's incredibly hard, I suspect, for almost anyone to feel that for a party that has abandoned all its principles and its only two identifiable policies in the form of the Green New Deal and the reform of worker rights. As we know, even its member's loyalty is strained.
In contrast, the Greens are clearly creating true believers in places like Bristol.
I also suspect the LibDems, with their own peculiar (in the proper sense of the word) dedication to local issue politics, have done the same thing in many places.
Meanwhile, all that Ben Houchen has proved is that £3 billion of bungs from central government for a bankrupt idea buys short-term political favour.
But let's also consider the bigger political issues for a moment.
Reform has failed. I think it has two seats. It is doing nothing like as well as UKIP did. It is annoying the Tories. It is giving racists and headbangers something to do. But is is not winning support. Its only real achievement seems to be to keep the Greens off the BBC.
There are two reasons for this. The first is the racists and headbangers already have the Tories singing their tunes, so they don't need anywhere else to go.
Second, and perhaps more importantly, the message from these results is that Brexit has ceased to be a political dividing line. Or, to put it another way, people have seen through it and the lies and racism that underpinned the arguments of many (not all, in the latter case) of those who promoted it and want to return to the sanity of politics that deals with reality.
The messages to Labour on Gaza that are also very obviously being sent reflect the same theme. Those who are anti-Semitic are rightly not tolerated, but nor is blind faith in a form of Zionism that is racially exclusive tolerated either.
What do I read into all this? Essentially, I think that there is a search for sense and a bemusement as to where it might be found.
I also think that my belief that those voting for Labour in a general election might suffer the most considerable buyer's remorse is reinforced.
Labour's refusal to talk about Brexit is failing it, and the country.
Its failure to also commit to obviously needed policy on climate issues, worker's rights, refugee rights, disability rights and much more is unacceptable to many, as is Starmer's Zionism in the face of genocide by a government he will not condemn for its actions.
It is, however, austerity will condemn it when no one believes that there is nothing that can be done to address failing government services.
Labour is not as out of touch with reality as the Tories, but it has only a vague relationship with it. And that is why other parties are appealing.
The future is unclear, barring one thing. Enthusiasm for our two leading political parties is not strong, and not nearly as much as they still like to believe.
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It is such a relief to find an analysis that so completely reflects my own. Perhaps the MSM will realise that asking politicians to assess their own performance only leads to a level of spin that loses all connection with sanity, let alone reality. Sunak’s Teeside speech is just weird, but Starmer’s ‘humility’ also comes across as calculating and disingenuous. And in the middle of all this individual voters’ tactical votes under FPTP are woefully misinterpreted by those benefiting from the outcome.
In general I agree, however the politics of local elections is quite different to that of general elections. Local issues are far more pertinent for many voters, as are the personalities of the candidates, many of whom can be well-known, some almost local celebrities.
Party affiliations ought to be less relevant in this environment, although that hasn’t helped the many decent, and now former Conservative councillors.
Spot on Richard. Just because the atrocious tories got a well deserved kicking in most areas that doesn’t translate into support for labour, or enthusiasm for them.
It is striking how many seats have been gained by non labour parties. I also suspect that away from the wretched FPTP that imposes a straight jacket on progressive voters, these local elections are a truer reflection of what people think than a GE. Labour need to be careful, and stop treating the progressive voter with complacent contempt and expecting them to always vote labour because the tories are worse and ‘you mustn’t split the vote’.
The result in Oldham and the probable failure to win the West Midlands mayoralty due to Gaza pissing off the Muslim vote shows this.
The incredible rise of Independents and Greens in the local elections backs up your hypothesis. They just about matched Labour gains. If you include the LibDems and RA in that group, then Labour did not win local elections, but came second.
I’d love to think this is the death knell for the top two, but it won’t be until voting reform happens.
The devil is in the detail here. Where is the analysis of the rise of the Independents, Residents’ Associations and others? I’ve seen nothing in the mainstream media. Bits and pieces on independent media. There is an interesting story to be told, but very few media outlets seem interested in telling it.
Agreed – just deleted a comment I was making which said the same thing. If I wanted to annoy some of my labour friends I would now be making some observations about the absolute and % swings to the lib dems and greens etc; I’m not doing that because I’m in London and today I am too relieved not to have the tory as our Mayor so I’ll wait until I’ve finished exhaling.
I’d be interested to hear what you think of Will Hutton’s new book “This Time No Mistakes”.
His general thesis is that we need a total reset of the balance between the private sector and the state, between “I” (individual freedoms and the market, which has been dominant for 45 years) and back towards “we” (collective social provision and effective regulation, more in the vein of the postwar consensus).
Apparently Starmer had read it and agrees. In which case you have to ask why Labour’s public statements are so unambitious.
Andrew
I have a copy
I’ll get to it after about 11 others….
Richard
Read an articles this morning in The Spectator and The Independent. Both article predicting that Labour will swing left after the election. The only questioned posed is how far left will Labour swing.
Both articles tried to hit home with a baseball bat that the real major gripes were with voters are the functioning of the NHS and delivery of public services (trash collection, water, pothole repair, etc…etc…) at the local level.
According to the articles Labour will need to (and really has no choice but to) swing left to clean-up some of the mess at the NHS and deliver functioning local public services.
Do not know if this is an over simplification but it makes sense to me.
I read the Nick Cohen one, clearly written before Labour abandoned most of its strategy on worker’s rights.
“I really cannot see a Tory recovery from this point for some time to come. It will take a decade or more for the memory of Truss, Johnson, Sunak, May and Cameron”
Richard,
View from a Yank: A UK recovery from all the Tory slime could be well on it’s way and visible to the voter in two years but this Mr. Starmer person is NOT the person to lead the charge. Also, I still see dealing with BREXIT as one of the major problems hiding in plain sight that ALL UK elected politicos seem to be side stepping or going out of their way to avoid at all costs.
I agree with the latter – in the sense that the issue ahs to be tackled
The former I don’t: I see this Tory collpase as simialr to 1997 and that took 13 years to just about recover from.
Can I just note that elected SNP politicians, both in the Holyrood and WM parliaments, are very much in favour of rejoining the EU, as are the majority of Scots.
So am I.
I just do not want the euro and point out the two are not synonymous
Mr BayTampaBay, the use of the phrase “swing left” (picked up by others as well) carries with it a left – right aspect to, in this case – problems in the NHS. Is the delivery of an efficienct and effective national health system, free at the point of use, “left wing”? Is making the overall population healthier, left wing?
If you wish to look at in that fashion – that is your right. But, one could also note that many of the failings in the NHS have been due to non-stop political tinkering (by politicos more interested in ideology than health outcomes) coupled to a failure to fund, either the service itself, or the training of people.
The tories think the NHS is inefficient/ineffective and privatisation is the way out of this. This has been the route for nearly 40 years – & has failed. LINO 1 took a similar route – and also failed not quite as badly as the tories – but made the error of thinking that hospitals were just “get well factories” and thus could be managed like….a factory.
What should matter are outcomes (& to some extent results – but that begs the question – how to characterise them).
We need to move away from left – right and towards a focus on making Uk citizens lives better. I am fairly sure that is what citizens want: good hospitals, schools, transport etc. These are not “left wing” things. I hope this does not come across as a niggle.
It is “Ms.” BayTampaBay!!! LOL! LOL!
With regards to your post you are 100% correct and I over-simplified the matter which I should not have done.
In the USA the common “joke” is that the country is governed within 5 feet of the “50 Yard Line” no matter which party is in the White House. The question is; is one on the left side or right side of the “50 Yard Line”? Of course all this went out the window with arrival of Trump and his MAGAts.
The problem, Mike, is that any citizen welfare based policy. which almost all on here prefer, has and will be labelled ‘socialist, ‘communist’ and ‘hard left’. There are those in the general population, lots of them, who believe this. I live in an area full of them.
It a bizarre….
Mike Parr what you describe could well be summarised as a Wellbeing Economy. There are some in Scotland trying to get support for such a policy.
Mike, I agree. Language is powerful. Thanks for pointing this out. Let’s advance this by modelling. Change starts with us.