I often wonder when it will be that climate change will create pivot points that have sufficiently deep social and economic consequences that politicians will finally be required to take note, and pursue serious action.
Curiously, the collapse of Humza Yousaf's government in Scotland is an early indication that failure to properly manage issues relating to climate change targets will have political consequences. His departure from office is the result of his failure to manage this issue. I do not, however, think that sufficient warning to create a widespread reaction, as yet.
There are, however, issues on the horizon that make it look like such reactions might be possible. For example, it is forecast that there will be a significant increase in cocoa prices very soon as a result of a twenty per cent decline in the likely world crop, almost entirely due to climate change, with the impact arising over the next year or so.
Coffee prices are already increased for the same reason.
In addition, the wheat crop is expected to be 20% down in the UK this year with unknown price consequences as yet because this may not be true worldwide.
There can be no doubt that other yields are increasingly at risk. The obvious risk is to vulnerable people because of rising food prices, to everyone because of potential inflationary risks that no amount of interest rate increases will address, and ultimately to the viability of life on earth as we currently know it if this trend continues and we are unable to feed people. At some point the risk of major involuntary migrations is also possible as a consequence.
Will this be enough to require change from governments? And if not, what will be?
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The French revolution was partly a consequence of food shortages. A lesson from history.
UK highly reliant on imports, not just grain but a whole host of other items. There has been a total failure to consider how UK ag’ could become more resilient and likewise a total failure to reduce reliance on imports. I’m not talking about coffee and cocoa but rather tomatoes, various greens, & vegetables etc etc. Also, given the failing birth rate, which means less Brits to pick stuff (do that do that? I don’t think so), this means greater reliance on immigrants. But the current gov & LINO don’t like immigrants – & have conditioned Brits to not like them. Current policy is to export immigrants.
So the scene is set for hungry Brits.
Agreed
And absurd
Glad that climate change has come up. Correct me if I am wrong but Brits only spend 10% of their income on food, so the comparison with C18 France probably doesn’t hold. I see the climate crisis as death by a thousand cuts. Politicians slavishly follow the votes, so if something scares the crap out of us the public, then the govt will act. But it will have to be bodies in body bags by the tens of thousands. And no offence intended, white bodies, not Indian or Chinese or African. And this may happen if some of the far-fetched theories of climate scientists turn out to be realistic. As for the time scale, it may happen very soon. Pray that the July and August see an end to the monthly record global temperatures now happening, because that will mean global climate models have not failed completely, and we’ll be due a respite for a period.
Thank you, Richard.
As my family and I are francophone, we watch French tv regularly and note the same. Their farmers are suffering similarly. Colleagues on the continent report similarly. There’s little reference to climate change.
My employer, still part owned by the Dutch government, is a big commodity trader and making lots of money. We also have the likes of Glencore, Trafigura, ADM, Louis Dreyfus and Cargill as client. At every town hall since the summer of 2022, the war in Ukraine and rise in commodity prices have been credited with the profits (and bonuses, which are only paid to staff in the UK and US).
War! What’s it good for? Banker bonuses! That’s what! I don’t mean to be flippant, but want to bring attention to who’s profiteering from the misery. My employer also provides trade finance for a well known high street sandwich shop with a French name and a family firm that makes construction and agricultural vehicles (and funds Boris Johnson), including for the development projects planned for Gaza after Palestinians are cleansed.
All of this is about speculative profits – for traders and bankers, who know that the BoE will punish ordinary people for the inflation that they cause, and then keep rates high to doubly reward bankers…
Thank you, Richard.
I agree.
Having a colonial and farming background and coming across the issues and impact professionally and personally, I’m very pessimistic (and often relieved that I have no children) and see climate change, climate change justice, and a move from neoliberalism and neoconservatism / neocolonialism as linked.
Cue today Keir Starmer as the local elections results firm up constantly banging on about his party being the party of “change” but he’ll not be talking about tackling “climate change” in any meaningful way. I’ve never lived in a time warp before now I think I am in the UK!
I wonder if Starmer could change a lightbulb
At this moment in time, I believe that the tipping point for political action will come after the tipping point in climate. There is a clear lack of will to do what is necessary to prevent these tipping points from happening. And the effects of the tipping points are understated in climate models. They are hedged by probability and discounted by a rate of interest. Once the future happens, all the calculations of net present value go out the window. And then the serious conversion can begin.
I suspect we may see climate change eventually being used as the excuse to form an emergency (ie permanent) multi-party government and consequently to end national elections. I’d think that would be necessary whoever’s in power when it becomes too obvious what’s happening is the nation’s simply being looted a la Last Days of Rome and for the same reasons, and that will inevitably lead to civil unrest. Let’s not forget one of the first things Boris, far-sighted in some regards, wanted to do when in high office was buy water cannon. He no doubt planned on using them. We will be squeezed dry as dry can be and then abandoned. I do believe that’s been the plan for a while.
There might be some inadequate incremental change, but it will take some very serious disasters indeed globally to get politicians’ full attention.
Government tends to be reactive, (events, dear boy), and as a class politicos seem incapable of pro-active thinking, and action. The kind of vision that gained us the NHS seems absent.