There is going to be no growth in the UK. Welcome to a world of Labour austerity and the resulting downward spiral of gloom and failure.

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As the Guardian notes this morning:

The UK's economic outlook has worsened this year as high interest rates and the lingering effects of last year's surge in inflation take a bigger toll on growth than previously expected, according to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

It added:

In a downbeat assessment of the potential for the economy to expand in 2024, the Paris-based thinktank downgraded its forecast for UK growth this year from last November's forecast of 0.7% to 0.4%.

It predicts a modest bounce back in 2025 with growth of 1% – a rate of growth half that projected by the Treasury's independent forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).

Three things. First, the OECD economics department is currently headed by a profoundly neoliberal ex-UK Treasury person who is headed soon to be a deputy governor at the Bank of England. If they could find a downside now, especially on the impact of UK wage rises, they could - and claim they have. Apparently giving people the power to spend more reduces growth according to this analysis, which is a very weird claim.

Second, if this is true, the whole basis for Labour's plans is shot through. There will be no growth of any significance, it is claimed. In that case Labour will claim there can be no additional government spending if its iron-clad fiscal rules are to be followed.

Third, we are locked in a downward economic death spiral in that case.

And all of that is because the people in charge are dedicated to an outdated economic mantra that demands that the world must be adapted to behave in accordance with their thinking, rather than believing that economic thinking should be adapted so that it can work out real world solutions for the people of this country and planet.

As definitions of intellectual failure go, that is unambiguous.

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