It feels like we are in the lull before the storm.
Tomorrow is budget day, and I really cannot be bothered to spend time speculating on the nonsense that is being written about what Jeremy Hunt might, or might not, do when waiting until tomorrow to find out seems a lot more sensible thing to do, particularly when very little of what it is suggested that he might offer meets the criteria of being sensible.
That though, is an issue of the immediate moment. That feeling of an impending storm is much stronger.
We know that we have a general election campaign waiting to start this year. What we also know is that whilst such campaigns are normally run on the basis of differing economic policy, on this occasion that will not be possible.
It is very clear that the Tories have run out of any ideas on how to run the economy, and that Labour is in completely in complete agreement with them in every possible way, including by having a total lack of ideas on how to tackle the issues that we face. As a result, there will be almost no basis for disagreement between them on issues relating to economics.
They are combined in their agreed that all that they can offer is low, or no, growth in earnings coupled with higher taxes on those with lower earnings both in absolute terms and as a proportion of GDP, as GDP itself stagnates and demand for public services rise. They will also agree that there can be no significant investment in any aspect of our economy.
Given that is the case, this election campaign is going to be brutal and ugly, because it will inevitably focus on what are described as culture wars.
These have every chance of becoming unseemly. Far too many in the Tories appear intent on pandering to a small Christian evangelical minority. Labour now appears intent on pandering to one part of the Jewish community. The majority of people in this country who are happy to live in a multicultural society, and know all the benefits of doing so, including many Christians and Jews, will feel deeply alienated by all of this.
Meanwhile, anyone who has concern for any minority group will live in fear during the campaign, partly because of the Draconian election laws that mean that they will have to almost continually tread on eggshells for fear of breaking election law over the next twelve months. That fear will be combined with the anticipation of a Labour government that has shown absolutely no interest in supporting any return towards proper balances within human and civil rights legislation in this country, or elsewhere.
The lull is, in that case, all about waiting for the fight to come, which will be with a Labour government that will bear no comparison with any previous administration of that name. Even Blair at his worst was nothing like the current Labour leadership because he had nothing like the control of the party that Starmer has managed to create for himself. This is, then, a time to reflect on the campaigns that are likely to be needed.
There will clearly be fights to come over austerity, to which Labour is dedicated.
There will also be fights over environmental causes, about which issue Labour appears to be in complete denial.
There will also be concerns over human rights, civil rights, freedom of speech, the right to protest, and, of course, international issues related to all these themes that are very likely to focus upon Gaza for a long time to come.
On top of that, there will be a very obvious economic fight, which will continue within the public services but also elsewhere, as those who work for a living seek to maintain their incomes in a to battle to meet the demand made upon them for excessive payments from the financial services sector, whether for insurance or interest payments, or from utility suppliers, or the hegemonic rental and housing markets . I suspect there will be no support for working people from Labour on these issues. Stress will, therefore, be very high.
That also suggests that the likelihood of significant stress over the future of public services will not in anyway abate as a consequence of the election of a Labour government, contrary to any past expectation.
Most people now realise that the current Tory government is in no position to resolve any of these issues, and has not really got the power to do so. Everything is in abeyance as a result. But, any relief at the election of a Labour government is going to give away, very quickly, to disbelief at what it will plan to do in practice.
I strongly suspect that disbelief will not only give rise to massive disquiet about that party very soon after its election, but also to disquiet about the whole political system when the obvious absence of choice within it becomes very apparent to millions of people who still believe that there is some fundamental difference between the options with which they are presented at  this moment. When it becomes clear to most people that Labour is absolutely no alternative to the Tories stress might reach previously unknown levels, and that is why I suggest that we are in the lull before a storm.
Worryingly, I have no idea in which direction that storm might eventually blow. I blame Labour for that. I can also live in hope. But only a fool would not worry about what is to come.
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When the next Labour government eagerly sets about continuing the privatisation of the NHS, a lot of Labour supporters are going to wish they paid more attention. Cognitive dissonance may then give way to cognitive dissidents – but it’ll be too late! You don’t know what you’ve got until it’s gone.
Thank you and well said, Jim.
It’s not just the NHS, schools and vocational training are being targeted, too.
To hear what Labour tells the City and what Labour supporters believe and say is so amazing to observe. The thing is I think many supporters won’t experience buyer’s remorse. They will just rationalise it as modernisation, like under New Labour.
That would be very worrying
Hwver, I note that you say this might be the case aongst supprters. How many of the are there?
Colonel Smithers, how do you know what Labour Party members think?
You might know what those at the top tell you they think, but it’s really not the same.
Here’s where you find out which candidates will support the NHS.
https://weownit.org.uk/pledgeforthenhs
Note that most of them are Green Party candidates at the moment. Only one labour supports all three pledges. Lots do not support giving the NHS enough money to stop privatisation.
Thank you and well said, Richard.
With regard to the culture wars, it’s not just the groups you mention. A friend / retired (London based) journalist / former Labour activist from the red wall says Starmer and his team want an alliance of red wall / blue Labour and blue wall Tories and Labour and think that backing Israel, cracking down on protest and the left, and dispensing with what is perceived to be middle class liberal / left issues like climate change and a rapprochement with the EU* is the way to go. There are not enough votes from evangelicals and zionists. *This is also music to the ears of Blair(‘s donors, Gulf states, big oil, defence contractors, investment banks and private equity).
Well before the genocide, the Labour leadership was happy with the Tory crackdown as they know they will face the same resistance and need all the tools at their disposal.
Judging by who’s being selected to stand for Labour and the wannabes in the queue and appointees to the Lords, there won’t be much, if any, resistance in Parliament. One of the reasons for hounding out MPs on the left is that Starmer fears a slim majority or hung parliament and having to throw some bones to a dozen or two left wing MPs. Starmer would prefer dealing with the neo-liberal Davey.
I am sure you are right
“Judging by who’s being selected to stand for Labour and the wannabes in the queue and appointees to the Lords, there won’t be much, if any, resistance in Parliament.”
Maybe I’m wrong, maybe I’m in a bubble, maybe it won’t actually happen.
But I’m hearing rumblings of support for local, independent, candidates. I’m hearing that what scared Conservatives most from the Rochdale result was that a local man, with no previous political experience, and very little time (just a few weeks), gathered a lot of votes.
Replicate that, especially in strong conservative (or even labour) seats which are usually lightly contested, and a number of local independent candidates could win through and have a substantial (hopefully restraining and redirecting) influence on whichever of the main parties end up with most seats.
“middle class liberal / left issues like climate change”
This brought a smile to my face with the characterisation. I know what you meant (that it tends to be the middle class that is most concerned).
Of course the climate disaster is a-political & has little interest in politics. Starmer & LINO think they can kick the climate can down the road – MP (me) sits back in comfy chair to watch the fun as one climate disaster after another hits the Uk – & the mealy-mouthed lawyer proves that him & his gang are just as incompetant as the tory-mob.
Anybody thinking of voting LINO in this election needs to open their eyes and ears.
Thank you, Mike.
The leadership, not necessarily the members away from HQ, even see it as a culture war issue, hence Starmer’s outburst about hating tree huggers after Ed Miliband had spoken at the shadow cabinet.
I remain hopeful that after the great convulsion that I agree is coming. The British Isles will re-examine it’s position in the world, and honestly, clearly and forthrightly do what it does well to play it part in creating a future for all humanity.
Better to strive for a better world for every grandchild yet to be born, and fail: than the current policy of depriving today’s children of a future so some of can be stupidly rich. Who really needs an income of>£1,000,000 when most people earn less than £40k?
Implied, but not explicitly mentioned, in your catalogue of impending destructive and/or destabilizing pressures stretching beyond the election, is the war in Europe – in Ukraine. That has not only not gone away, primarily because of the bravery and resolution of the Ukrainian people and leadership, but has entered a newly dangerous phase because of the Trumpian machinations of the US Senate. (See Timothy Snyder’s latest “Thinking about… ” post at
https://snyder.substack.com/p/the-apocalypse-we-choose? ) This massively increases the likelihood of that EITHER imposing huge and escalating costs on a new government at Westminster – OR many other aspects of policy being bent to a newly supine Russian and oilocracy agenda. So – a unrolling storm indeed.
However, I’m always a bit uncomfortable with the “storm” imagery and can’t but help remembering that it was the favourite terminology of Nazi propaganda, when encouraging the enthusiastic acceptence of obliteration in a self-immolating total war. We live in very dangerous times and our two ‘main’ parties have not only no answers – but only fresh fuel for the blaze.
I’m hoping for a hung parliament since the prospect of Labour having a huge majority will be just as bad for the UK as the Tories 80-seat majority. It has been made worse, of course, by Starmer being a nodding dog to every crazy scheme – I refuse to call them policies – that the Tories come up with. There has been no opposition from Labour – none at all.
The outlook is grim.
Labour, with a large majority, will run amok. Expect further restrictions on civil liberties, the sale of the NHS, austerity, struggling families, homelessness and poor physical and mental health due to widespread poverty. The UK in the 21st century!
So much for the sunlit uplands.
A hung Parliament would make no difference if all involved are agreed on policies.
A hung parliament at least offers the theoretical possibility of the Lib Dems demanding and getting real PR as the price for their support. I’ve no idea if they would actually do this, after their pathetic effort with AV in 2010-2011. If they did, it would open up the possibility of real change in the 2029/2030 General Election. Without it, we will get nothing but the ‘buyer’s regret’ backlash. In 2010 the Lib Dems facilitated 14 years of Tory misrule, which may not turn out to be their worst mistake. A 2024 hung parliament scenario which didn’t lead to PR would miss perhaps the final opportunity to dilute the power of an Establishment seemingly bent on fascism.
This particular lull is already demonstrating the continuous stream of Tory stories of the Angela Rayner might be a tax dodger ilk, and other fictional muckraking at the level of “Keir Starmer ate my Hamster” from the Mail and Ashcroft as diversionary tactics by the Tories..
The limbo dancers in Tory Comms will go as low as they can go to avoid substantive issues like the NHS, net zero and national decay, let alone cost of living and economic failures.
And then we’ll have yet more ‘othering’ of Muslims, alleged benefit fraudsters and other minority groups..
Apparently Starmer has achieved his Blair moment – with complementary pieces in the Sun and Telegraph commending his support for the Gaza massacres.
As with Richard – so difficult not to have a sense of foreboding – although not sure the election will be fought on the culture wars . Tories are trying to do that, but apparently many of their MP’s are worrying that their messaging (eg Sunak’s lectern Downing Street speech) is not ‘cutting through’.
This seems to be one of the few bright spots – people not hearing the dog whistles .
The only hope is that after 14 years of austerity having broken the country – that people will not really believe that another ten years of the same will not destroy it completely
https://www.thecanary.co/trending/2024/03/04/by-election-uk-tories-labour/
The Workers party has already got someone to stand against Rayner.
There is also an independent, Andrew Feinstein, standing against Starmer.
What we know after last week’s by-election is that other parties can win and an independent can come second.
We also know that not a single tory candidate would get more than 40% of the vote if the election was held now.
If you care about the NHS and want to keep it, try this.
https://weownit.org.uk/pledgeforthenhs
There is also a group called no ceasefire no vote
The ordinary person can win this time round if enough of us stick together.
I now expect lots of men telling me to stop being ridiculous.
Here’s an article about the “No ceasefire no vote” conference that happened recently.
https://morningstaronline.co.uk/article/sir-keir-facing-no-ceasefire-no-vote-challenge
I’m heartened that all over the place there seem to be stirrings of a real opposition gathering force.
Have you seen what they are doing in Totnes?
https://www.southdevonprimary.org/
The labour candidate has not agreed to go yet, but they’ve kept a seat for him/her.
Maybe it will happen like it did in Rochdale, Labour and tory being 2nd and 3rd.
I think this a fascinating exercise.
So do I.
I wonder if we could pull off a similar exercise in Holborn & St Pancras. I don’t see why not. The sitting MP has shown Stalinist tendancies, has no policies (I’m not counting the authoritarian ones) and has a record for lying almost like Johnson’s. I am certain there are a couple of other seats – Streeting’s for example. The tories are dead ducks – but LINO needs to be given a ride for its money. Anybody interested?
I first saw it last night on A Different Bias on youtube. However, it’s in the i today.
When I looked it up online George Monbiot mentioned it last year in The Guardian! Obviously it wasn’t noticed back then.
Mike Parr, Andrew Feinstein has agreed to stand against Starmer in Holborn and St Pancras.
He seems to be very good
This is clever; I like it too. Think outside “the box”, by using FPTP against itself. Not easy to pull off, but driven to distraction, the electorate itself can produce ideas (Parties never do). This is democracy in action; I suppose purloined from the US, but I take my hat off to whoever thought it could be applied in somewhere as (politically) stuffily inert as England; now comes the hard part, pulling it off (and choosing the best candidate). Win the election through it, and the spaghetti hits the fan.
It is, however all merely a telling illustration of the urgent necessity of a rapid change from FPTP to PR (STV, to keep Party from manipulating the system for political advantage); and it is coming from the electorate.
The South Devon Primary organisers are offering a “do your own primary” kit, for targeted Tory constituencies – https://www.politicalprimary.org
Current primaries: South Devon, East Wiltshire, Melksham & Devizes, Newton Abbot and NW Essex – the latter aiming to unseat Kemi Badenoch 🙂
Ely’s one of them, I notice, where Richard lives, to get rid of Lucy Frazer.
There is a strong desire on my community to do that, and a feeling that only the LibDems can do that, whatever else anyone feels about them
I am always amazed at the continued furvour of Labour’s canvassers out on the doorstep. Try to engage them with any policy discussion, woe betide any discussion of macro-economic policy with reference to Rachael Reeves, is completely unproductive. They pashionately believe that this is purely a game to unseat the Tory’s from government.
I expressed my shock at Labour’s House of Lords abstention on the Rwanda Bill (surely a new low in post war British History) to an ex Labour City Councillor and Corbynite while out shopping. He was furious with me, and did all he could to pour scorn at my sheer audacity to question his tribe’s record. He immediately turned away.
Ask a question about whether Labour are a Neo-liberal Party and they stare back with out a shred of comprehension.
The fear of curiosity? Of questioning assumptions? Was doubt ever really present.
And yet, i am told 200,000 members have been suspended. Decent, compassionate people most of them. Temporarily rudderless, holding on to their class-war analysis, yet they seemingly long to be welcomed back to the fold…to do what? Carry on an unending internal struggle while the Earth burns and life is extinguished?
I have to say, I’m at the point of thinking that to vote Labour is now the worst vote you can cast in most places.
Some of course might nave the opportunity to remove some particularly objectionable Tory, but I’m convinced the result of a Labour win will be a government that does nothing to address the UK’s real problems, and therefore facilitates the return of an even more right-wing Tory party – whereas even continuing Tory government now might be better in the long run: Labour will change its current poor leadership, which will be seen to have failed, while the Tories continue to mess up, creating the opportunity for genuine change at the following election – which, given the state of the country and the Tory party, might well not be far off.
Sorry, but I think the opposite. The country can’t cope with another few years of tory control.
Anyway, there’s no reason that other constituencies can’t do the same as Totnes.
https://keepournhspublic.com/
Hunt was also the worst NHS leader that we had. He took over from Lansley in 2013. At the time he was the richest MP in parliament.
Next Saturday there is going to be an emergency day of action led by KONP. Even the BMJ is getting involved.
Whatever Sunak said on Friday there are going to be marches. There was a demo yesterday outside the DWP organised by DPAC. Lots of police there but they couldn’t tip women out of their wheelchairs this time.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/mar/05/labour-to-end-uk-exemptions-for-bee-killing-pesticides-outlawed-by-eu
Found a reason to vote labour.
Except, of course, every other party apart from the tories will also do this.
Or in words closer to the wisdom of Groucho Marx:
“Tomorrow is budget day, and I really cannot be bothered”.
Lull before the storm.. excellent prognosis and mind provoking comments. A short comment more.
There is much talk here of a ‘desired’ hung parliament, understandably so f there is a clear opposition and governing party difference – quite so, absolutely. But of course (Sorry Polly, & Co.) there is much party branding, but not any real policy difference between the mainstream parties.
Only dreamy Disneyland Labourites think there is a crock of gold under the Starmer rainbow.
Did anyone notice that, across the water, Fianna Fail and Fianna Gael successfully formed a coalition to preserve the neo liberal status quo to stop Sinn Fein taking power as the democratic choice?? Well would you believe it? Yes I would, and yes they did. Continuity preserved.
Whilst David Evans, Starmer and The Dark Lord Mandelson, are in charge of Labour I would ask this ; What are the betting Odds will be that, in the event of a messy hung parliament, that the Red and the Blue would combine to make an awful brown coloured coalition???
Unthinkable; I don’t think so. Lull before the storm indeed, a great post & commentators. Thanks
I think that possible.
If both Tory parties in Ireland could combine, and they did, then they could here too.
An authoritarian, neoliberal/pro-business/privatising/crypto-fascist partnership of ‘both conservative parties’ could come via a ‘national government’, granting itself extraordinary powers (‘just temporarily’) in response to the next wave of the polycrisis: serious food supply issues (due to climate change, droughts in Europe; or transport problems due to the European war); actual expanded theatre of operations of that war, or cyber attacks on key systems such as the grid; or another left-field shock of the Covid variety, for none of which do we seem to have adequate planning, preparation or resilience.
Add in some choice culture-war provocateurs to stir up some public disorder… Hey, presto! Germany 1932-3 on repeat.